Best Thread Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread

[Mpoufos]

mcurto the big locals know when big banks will enter for whatever reason. the big funds or banks call it whatever u want always enter on spesific levels and rarely on a non event day or a non level day. the rest of the time is big boys and local driven at least in the eurex markets as i dont have experience in the notes. And nowadays the risk controls in banks have limited a lot their exposure in those products in a intraday basis. I agree that they might take a hedge or an outright position that could be massive but that would be on a long term basis and not for intraday profit. and nobody saying pushing the markets for the long run. we are talking on a intraday sometimes intrahour basis. in the long term the market will go where it is to go and noone can manipulate that. ur comments gentlmen.

ps: try to keep this thread for bund-bobl-schatz

 

[grantx]

Mpoufos

"keep this thread for bund-bobl-schatz". Whether one is talking about Eurex or CBOT fixed-income, aren't the practises the same? I've just copied a really helpful post from another site regarding the subject we're discussing here (head fakes and short-term moves), however this uses level 2 for equities for its explanation.

Reading outside a specific area can help to clarify an unrelated area.

Grant.

 

[zeeuk]

Mcurto,

Re your posts, are you basically saying it is not possible for a big player (prop desk of a major bank, for example) to push the market around in their favour? This is my opinion but based on little.

You may have a big player trying to push the market down, but you may also have a big player trying to push the market up. There are too many conflicting opinions, motives and contra-positions opening and closing. In the final analysis, a move up or down is determined by the net - 10,000 sold, 10,001 bought = uptick.

I look forward to your further contributions.

Grant.

Mkt does get pushed around for a few ticks, but what a risky game to play in these volatile times. If mkt is squeezed, doesn't hang around for long. Panic sets in so quick and you just don't know what stupid announcement will be made in the next second!

There is someone who's been flashing 10k lots in schatz for the past few weeks (except big roll days), just in for a few secs. Seems pointless as is flashed on both sides of the mkt- don't understand the purpose, surely no one is falling for it?! Would like to see it getting hit one of these days thou esp with hardly any depth around!

 

[grantx]

Zee,

I think there is too much interpretation/speculation/bolllocks as to who is doing what, when and why.

If everything above is true, then if the big players can manipulate the market, then the market becomes predictable (which may be countered with it is only predictable to a small - but adequate - extent).

Do we stay out because we can't work the angle? No, nobody would trade. As long as you are aware of possibilities, then you just do what you will.

Grant.

 

[buy 'em]

Mkt does get pushed around for a few ticks, but what a risky game to play in these volatile times. If mkt is squeezed, doesn't hang around for long. Panic sets in so quick and you just don't know what stupid announcement will be made in the next second!

There is someone who's been flashing 10k lots in schatz for the past few weeks (except big roll days), just in for a few secs. Seems pointless as is flashed on both sides of the mkt- don't understand the purpose, surely no one is falling for it?! Would like to see it getting hit one of these days thou esp with hardly any depth around!

Zeeuk

I to have been noticing the 10k lot spoofs in schatz. I have no idea what the local is trying to accomplish by flashing 10k on both sides of the book but there must be some reason. It would be cool to see it get hit in one big clip!!!

 

[grantx]

Lately, also seen 5's and 6's on the bobl flipped from bid to offer and back.

Buy 'em,

I'd like to see one these fucckers get hit now and again; may restore order and confidence.

Grant.

 

[buy 'em]

Yeah I here ya! Sadly I don't really have enough cash in my account to hit em for a few K lol!!!

 

[buy 'em]

Anybody know what the deal is for this coming week? I was just on eurex's website and I thought it said there would be no markets on Good Friday (march 21st) and on that next Monday (march 24). Can anybody confirm this?

 

[grantx]

Buy 'em,

That would be correct for all of Europe (and the US I would imagine). Take a break - you'll burn yourself out before your 18.

Grant.

 

[buy 'em]

lol damnit thats what I was afraid of! I get both those days off for spring break too! I thought somebody said all markets (US and Europe) were open until 11am chicago time?

Oh well

 

[Mpoufos]

lol grant u are a funny man, do u trade eurex long man?

 

[buy 'em]

kinda slow today guys. I've made a lot of trades but didn't really need to as I havn't seen many opportunities.

 

[buy 'em]

105.45 big size......lets see what happens. This could be the determining factor on which way the next big move is going to be.

 

[buy 'em]

looks like that offer held.....but barely!

 

[buy 'em]

they can't break .45 in schatz! Im short .445

 

[buy 'em]

covered .405

 

[buy 'em]

mpoufos

I see your on this thread man. Any thoughts?

 

[buy 'em]

im short schatz again at .43 I think we could break hard here.......maybe to around .32

 

[Mpoufos]

i am favoring the upside. ranging for now look for 23 for bund if it breaks i am shorting but not trading until us open now. as long as we stay above 30 35 its a long lets see what the us equities are gonna do today

 

[buy 'em]

We keep ranging guys. Triangle pattern in schatz. Break below .41 and we could really selloff. Im short .43