Bullish / Bearish forex selection

[Atilla]

This is all from the daily charts but I only do a review at the end of the week. I use the 200EMA to determine if bullish or bearish - bullish if price above, bearish if below. Too crude to be meaningful on an individual chart but the hope is that it will intimate changing conditions when looked at in aggregate. Kind of like watching one person's behaviour in the high street reveals little but watching the crowd tells you where the sales are....... He he he.

Someone mentioned Hari Seldon recently.....

It certainly doesn't look like time to be short on GBP. I blame it on the new pound coin.

Not sure, as Brexit softens I think we'll see more upside. 1.28 may need to be tested before next surge but over all bullish

 

[tomorton]

Agree with that. Against 3 strongest currencies GBP is gaining against NZD and CHF, holding its own v's EUR. Sterling bears should get out the way.

 

[tomorton]

Update on currency strengths as of close, 07/07.

AUD - neutral, no change
CAD - bullish, strengthening
CHF - bullish but weakening
EUR - bullish but weakening
GBP - bearish but strengthening
JPY - bearish, no change
NOK - bearish, no change
NZD - bullish, no change
SEK - bullish,strengthening
SGD - neutral, no change
USD - bearish, no change
ZAR - neutral, weakening

Currently most opposed major currencies -
Long - EUR, CHF, NZD, CAD (CAD added)
Short - JPY, USD (no change)

Results from last week's trades if taken from this analysis only, 30/06 - 3 wins out of 6 trades -
Long EUR/JPY - WIN
Long CHF/JPY - WIN
Long NZD/JPY - WIN
Long EUR/USD - LOSE
Long NZD/USD - LOSE
Short USD/CHF - LOSE

Good luck all.

 

[tomorton]

Big changes this week. AUD stronger in a big way, EUR, GBP and NZD all drop out of bullish zone. JPY and USD as bearish as ever.

Last week's B/B trades were 5 out of 8. Next week's B/B trades -
Long AUD/JPY
Long AUD/USD
Long CAD/JPY
Short GBP/AUD
Short GBP/CAD
Short USD/CAD

Fingers crossed.

 

[Atilla]

Update on currency strengths as of close, 07/07.

AUD - neutral, no change
CAD - bullish, strengthening
CHF - bullish but weakening
EUR - bullish but weakening
GBP - bearish but strengthening
JPY - bearish, no change
NOK - bearish, no change
NZD - bullish, no change
SEK - bullish,strengthening
SGD - neutral, no change
USD - bearish, no change
ZAR - neutral, weakening

Currently most opposed major currencies -
Long - EUR, CHF, NZD, CAD (CAD added)
Short - JPY, USD (no change)

Results from last week's trades if taken from this analysis only, 30/06 - 3 wins out of 6 trades -
Long EUR/JPY - WIN
Long CHF/JPY - WIN
Long NZD/JPY - WIN
Long EUR/USD - LOSE
Long NZD/USD - LOSE
Short USD/CHF - LOSE

Good luck all.

Following cable and that turned out to be correct.

 

[tomorton]

Last week's B/B trades - 4 out of 6 correct direction.

Selections for next week -
Bullish are - CAD, EUR, NZD (AUD deleted, EUR, NZD added)
Bearish are - GBP, JPY, USD (no change here)

 

[tomorton]

Last week's B/B trades - 5 out of 7 correct direction.

Selections for next week -
Bullish are - AUD, CAD, EUR, (AUD added, NZD deleted)
Bearish are - CHF, JPY, USD (CHF added,, GBP deleted)

 

[tomorton]

Last week's B/B trades - 3 out of 9 correct direction.

Over the last 8 weeks, this gives only a 51% success rate at identifying correct direction, so I'm not taking this approach any further. It was never a method for picking trades but its hardly sparkling as a filter either.

Looking at past month's % performance (majors only) gives these selections -
Bullish = AUD, EUR
Bearish = CHF, USD

I'll see how this does for a while.