Brend's trading ideas

[BREND]

Shorted EURJPY

EURJPY is a carry trade that has been very profitable for the past 7 years, but I think this carry trade is overdone.

Both MACD and Bollingerband are signaling that EURJPY could go down lower.

Shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98
Stop level at 165.60
Target level at 162.40

 

[BREND]

Shorted EURJPY

EURJPY is a carry trade that has been very profitable for the past 7 years, but I think this carry trade is overdone.

Both MACD and Bollingerband are signaling that EURJPY could go down lower.

Shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98
Stop level at 165.60
Target level at 162.40

Yesterday I had shorted 10,000 EURJPY at 163.98, stop level at 165.60, target level at 162.40.

EURJPY continues to move down sharply.

The yen is being bought as Japanese investors are unwinding long positions in higher-yielding currencies. Concerns over an economic slowdown and the ongoing slide in commodities are spurring them to repatriate those funds.

I decide to take profit first. Bought back at 162.78, profit is US$108.82.

 

[BREND]

ECB President Mr. Trichet said that recent economic data pointed toward "a weakening of real GDP growth in mid-2008" following strong growth during Q1.

I have been waiting for a good entry level to buy EURGBP. This has pushed EURGBP lower, creating an opportunity to buy EURGBP at lower price.

Both stochastic and comm channel had signaled buy for EURGBP.

Bought 20,000 EURGBP at 0.7912
Stop level at 0.7890
Target level at 0.7950

Last week I had bought 20,000 EURGBP at 0.7912, stop level at 0.7750, target level at 0.7940.

The Bank of England published its quarterly inflation forecasts on Wednesday against a backdrop of sharply rising price pressures and a slowing economy. Governor Mervyn King said "The current period of above-target inflation, although very marked, will be temporary and inflation will return to the 2 percent target."

GBP comes under assault following the release of BOE inflation report pushing EURGBP up.

I took profit on 0.7930, profit is US$67.

 

[BREND]

Next Trading Strategy

Today I had closed off my last position, which is EURGBP, at slight profit.

US dollar has rallied for the past one month. US dollar has rushed up too fast and too steep. Fundamentally and technically I think this rally is not sustainable. All you need is one bad US economic data to turn this US dollar direction around.

My next strategy is to short USDCAD or USDCHF when the parabolic indicator signals the end of this rally.

 

[BREND]

System signals buy for EURUSD

As mentioned in my previous posting, US dollar has rallied for the past one month. US dollar has rushed up too fast and too steep. Fundamentally and technically I think this rally is not sustainable. All you need is one bad US economic data to turn this US dollar direction around.

AUDUSD is already up, gold and silver price is already up, crude oil is already up, but EURUSD is still trading in a tight band of 1.4829 - 1.4967. In my view EURUSD is lagging behind. If USD is weaken, then EURUSD should go up higher.

Both Comm Channel and Stochastic had signaled buy for EURUSD.

Bought 10,000 EURUSD at 1.4919
Stop level at 1.4818

 

[BREND]

AUDUSD moving upwards

AUDUSD gained after commodities prices rose and traders bet the decline in the past month is overdone. Rising commodities prices will continue to provide support for this AUD crosses.

My system has continued to signal buy for AUDUSD.

I had placed working order to buy 10,000 AUDUSD at 0.8670
Place a stop level at 0.8570

 

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Previously there were a lot of agruements on whether slowdown in US economy is going to affect the rest of the world. The answer is yes. Europe and New Zealand have shown signs of slowdown in their economic data.

Hence this lead to the environment whereby US is holding interest rate unchanged while the rest of the world are cutting interest rates.

Based on interest differentiate, we should see NZDUSD and EURUSD falling much lower.

Shorted NZDUSD at 0.6970
Stop level at 0.6673
Target level at 0.6673

Shorted EURUSD at 1.4712
Stop level at 1.4915
Target level at 1.4415

 

[BREND]

Previously there were a lot of agruements on whether slowdown in US economy is going to affect the rest of the world. The answer is yes. Europe and New Zealand have shown signs of slowdown in their economic data.

Hence this lead to the environment whereby US is holding interest rate unchanged while the rest of the world are cutting interest rates.

Based on interest differentiate, we should see NZDUSD and EURUSD falling much lower.

Shorted NZDUSD at 0.6970
Stop level at 0.6673
Target level at 0.6673

Shorted EURUSD at 1.4712
Stop level at 1.4915
Target level at 1.4415

1. Today I had shorted NZDUSD at 0.6970, stop level at 0.6673, target level at 0.6673.

Seeing that USD started to weaken, I decided to take profit on NZDUSD at 0.6936, profit is US$34.

2. Today I had also shorted EURUSD at 1.4712, stop level at 1.4915, target level at 1.4415.

I decided to take profit at 1.4630, profit is US$82.

 

[BREND]

1. I had shorted NZDUSD at 0.6970, stop level at 0.6673, target level at 0.6673.

Seeing that USD started to weaken, I decided to take profit on NZDUSD at 0.6936, profit is US$34.

2. I had also shorted EURUSD at 1.4712, stop level at 1.4915, target level at 1.4415.

I decided to take profit at 1.4630, profit is US$82.

 

[BREND]

EURGBP range trading maintains

EURGBP has been trading in a range for 4 months. Resistance level is at 0.8105 and support is at 0.7796.

Fundamentally both Europe and UK economies are weak, and both economies are likely to cut interest rate over the next few months. I believe this range trading will maintain.

Currently EURGBP is trading at the resistance level, hence it is good opportunity to short.

Shorted 10,000 EURGBP at 0.8105
Stop level at 0.8208
Target level at 0.7909

 

[BREND]

USDJPY profit up 108 pips

On Monday I had shorted 10,000 USDJPY at 109.53, stop level at 11.46, target level at 108.20. Details here.

USDJPY is now trading at 108.20, up 108 pips, profit is US$88.15.

My system has signal SELL for USDJPY since it was trading at 109.60, and it is still signal SELL now. So I lower my target price from 108.20 to 107.50.

 

[BREND]

Bearish on New Zealand dollar
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates for the first time in 5 years on 24 July 08. Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported that economic activity is likely to remain weak over the remainder of 2008.

Retail sales had fallen by the most in 4 years and consumer confidence hitting record lows, the New Zealand dollar has weakened to the lowest level in 6 months.

RBNZ Governor Bollard promising more rate cuts and the futures curve pricing such action, the New Zealand central bank has become the most aggressively dovish policy maker of the G10.

Further weakness is expected in NZD and for it to fall below 67 cents against the US dollar before end of September.

My proprietory trading system had signal SELL for NZDUSD

Shorted 10,000 NZDUSD at 0.6962
Stop level at 0.7080
Target level at 0.6766

 

[BREND]

Bearish on New Zealand dollar
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates for the first time in 5 years on 24 July 08. Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported that economic activity is likely to remain weak over the remainder of 2008.

Retail sales had fallen by the most in 4 years and consumer confidence hitting record lows, the New Zealand dollar has weakened to the lowest level in 6 months.

RBNZ Governor Bollard promising more rate cuts and the futures curve pricing such action, the New Zealand central bank has become the most aggressively dovish policy maker of the G10.

Further weakness is expected in NZD and for it to fall below 67 cents against the US dollar before end of September.

My proprietory trading system had signal SELL for NZDUSD

Shorted 10,000 NZDUSD at 0.6962
Stop level at 0.7080
Target level at 0.6766

Yesterday I had shorted 10,000 NZDUSD at 0.6962, stop level at 0.7080, target level at 0.6766.

Today Australia central bank had cut its interest rate by a quarter point to 7%, causing AUDUSD to plunge down, and dragged NZDUSD down as well.

Currently NZDUSD is trading at 0.6842, profit is up 138 pips, US$137.60.

I believe US dollar strength will continue until Australia, New Zealand, Europe and UK are done with their interest rate cut, which will take another 6 months at least in my view.

Hence I think its not too difficult to make money in the forex market by shorting EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPUSD during this period.

 

[BREND]

NZDUSD fell to a low of 0.6805 before rebounding up. I believe the overall trend for NZDUSD is still down, but it is oversold now, so we may see a rebound.

I decided to take profit first, bought back at 0.6871, profit is 91 pips, US$90.60.

 

[BREND]

Canada Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Drops

Canada's currency fell after crude oil dropped to a five-month low and the U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.0689 against its U.S. counterpart at 10:38 a.m., down 0.2 percent from yesterday's C$1.0667.

Crude oil for October delivery touched $105.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since April 4, as Hurricane Gustav spared U.S. Gulf states the destruction caused by Katrina and Rita in 2005. Commodities, including oil, account for about half of Canada's export revenue.

The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow on interest rates.

Lower crude price is one of the things causing weakness in the Canadian dollar.

My trading system signals BUY for USDCAD.

Bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714
Stop level at 1.0610
Target level at 1.0908

 

[BREND]

Canada Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Drops

Canada's currency fell after crude oil dropped to a five-month low and the U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.0689 against its U.S. counterpart at 10:38 a.m., down 0.2 percent from yesterday's C$1.0667.

Crude oil for October delivery touched $105.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since April 4, as Hurricane Gustav spared U.S. Gulf states the destruction caused by Katrina and Rita in 2005. Commodities, including oil, account for about half of Canada's export revenue.

The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow on interest rates.

Lower crude price is one of the things causing weakness in the Canadian dollar.

My trading system signals BUY for USDCAD.

Bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714
Stop level at 1.0610
Target level at 1.0908

Yesterday I had bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714, stop level at 1.0610, target level at 1.0908.

USDCAD is trading at 1.0759, profit is up 61 pips, US$56.81.

Resistance level at 1.0750 had broken, so USDCAD has the potential to rise higher.

Today Bank of Canada will announce their interest rate decision. If there is interest rate cut announcement today, we can see USDCAD rising much higher.

My trading system is still signal BUY for USDCAD.

 

[BREND]

USDCHF looks Toppish

Technically USDCHF looks toppish, possibly head and shoulder forming. MACD has signal SELL on the daily chart.

My proprietory system had signal SELL for USDCHF.

Shorted 10,000 at 1.1078
Stop level at 1.1182
Target level at 1.0932

 

[BREND]

My System signals SELL for USDCAD

Canada's dollar advanced after a government report showed the nation's employers added more jobs in August than economists forecast, indicating the Bank of Canada may refrain from cutting borrowing costs next month.

The currency remained higher after a report showed the U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in August and the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high.

Both Stochastic and Comm Channel signals SELL for USDCAD

Shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654
Stop level at 1.0785
Target level at 1.0487

 

[BREND]

My System signals SELL for USDCAD

Canada's dollar advanced after a government report showed the nation's employers added more jobs in August than economists forecast, indicating the Bank of Canada may refrain from cutting borrowing costs next month.

The currency remained higher after a report showed the U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in August and the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high.

Both Stochastic and Comm Channel signals SELL for USDCAD

Shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654
Stop level at 1.0785
Target level at 1.0487

On 5 September I had shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654, target level at 1.0487.

Support level at 1.0550 creates a rebound for USDCAD, not taking any chance I decide to take profit first.

Bought back USDCAD at 1.0570, profit is up 84 pips, US$78.57.

 

[BREND]

GBPJPY Should Fall Lower

U.K. economy is weak, I think GBP has to fall further, here are the reasons why:

Housing prices have been falling. They had slided 9 percent this year alone. That is the worst drop in 15 years. Central Bank chief Mervyn King says it has further to go.

Falling house prices and higher food and energy costs are going to dampen consumer spending even more in the coming months.

The British have taken on a record 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.8 trillion) in debt. And those borrowing costs arent getting any cheaper.

Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said job losses will triple as the economy slows.

So we should see British pound going lower.

My system has signaled SELL on GBPJPY.

Shorted 10,000 GBPJPY at 186.18
Stop level at 188.26
Target level at 183.31