Break Out - Opportunities posted

Chart for GBP Yen.

I would expect it the GBP/Yen to come off a bit first but not violate the relative low of 205.38 and then action the buy stop at 208.52 or to be very sure of upswing buy stop at 209.07 although this reduces potential gain to risk as extensive resistance exists at 210.5 and this level may not be taken out.
 
GBP YEn BO?

Chart for GBP Yen.

GBP may still come off a bit first before becoming a buy at upswing around 208.5, use 209 ie last high to be really sure although BO may not take out strong resistance at 210.5 level, so keep an eye on risk reward ratios for late entry.

Good luck
 

Attachments

  • GBP Yen.doc
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Interesting MACD behaviour (Divergence)- is that a 4hour chart you have posted?
 
4hr GBP Yen

neil said:
Interesting MACD behaviour (Divergence)- is that a 4hour chart you have posted?


Correct a 4 hour chart. Trying a different site for pasting in to word for clarity purposes and the zoom function was cranky so went with that timeline for best representation.

MACD also shows an ironing out of the volatility which is a good prelude to a BO.

Good Luck
 
Latest GBP/ YEN 4hr Candle Chart

The Baptist said:
Correct a 4 hour chart. Trying a different site for pasting in to word for clarity purposes and the zoom function was cranky so went with that timeline for best representation.

MACD also shows an ironing out of the volatility which is a good prelude to a BO.

Good Luck

I have reposted this chart.

It does still seem that the pattern is holding the extreme candle with small body and extended upper and lower shadows appear to have defined the range ie. support around 206.9.

All subsequent candles have been inside 'bars/candles' something I view as bullish and also implies reduceding volatility something I always like to see prior to a break out.

The last few Candles have been spinning tops, almost doji's ie small bodies and extended shadows. This is also in line with expected behaviour, we have had a move down from the 209 levels and now there is indecision. I am choosing to interpret this as a questioning of the downside move and consolidation just above the 206.75/90 levels.

A further development to watch for would be 'hammer' type candles, these would be small bodies with primarily lower shadows tactically this would further embelish the bullish break out scenario, while showing rejection of the lower levels at each test with the close being at the high end of the range.

A fall through the 206.80 level would invaildate the short term case.

I hope this helps and is interesting if I am correct adding to a long GBP/Yen position in the low 207.10/30 range on the occasional lower wicks of the candles may prove profitable, else for greater conviction buy stops to catch the BO once it starts at the 208 levels where the last atempt upwards failed or further still around 280.55.

Enjoy the trade.
 

Attachments

  • GBP Yen.doc
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GBP/Yen update

The Baptist said:
I have reposted this chart.

It does still seem that the pattern is holding the extreme candle with small body and extended upper and lower shadows appear to have defined the range ie. support around 206.9.

All subsequent candles have been inside 'bars/candles' something I view as bullish and also implies reduceding volatility something I always like to see prior to a break out.

The last few Candles have been spinning tops, almost doji's ie small bodies and extended shadows. This is also in line with expected behaviour, we have had a move down from the 209 levels and now there is indecision. I am choosing to interpret this as a questioning of the downside move and consolidation just above the 206.75/90 levels.

A further development to watch for would be 'hammer' type candles, these would be small bodies with primarily lower shadows tactically this would further embelish the bullish break out scenario, while showing rejection of the lower levels at each test with the close being at the high end of the range.

A fall through the 206.80 level would invaildate the short term case.

I hope this helps and is interesting if I am correct adding to a long GBP/Yen position in the low 207.10/30 range on the occasional lower wicks of the candles may prove profitable, else for greater conviction buy stops to catch the BO once it starts at the 208 levels where the last atempt upwards failed or further still around 280.55.

Enjoy the trade.


A touch worried about this trade price action is based very close to the support levels and I would be reducing the likelihood of success at this point any break through 206 .75 levels would postpone the possible pattern. Take out of 205.50 would point to complete pattern failure.
 
Watch them windows

On Gold I was interested if there may have been any forewarning for the current pullback.

I have attached the chart showing all windows (gaps) made while moving up (ie. Upside Gaps).

After each window there was a consolidation candle or two, which I have circled.

While popular folk lore has it that all windows are closed by later price action I do not find this is always the case in strong moves and most of the initial gaps remain unclosed.

At the top of the Gold move we had two succesive window moves without any retracement, which should have pointed to a blow off phase where future days positive action was being assumed at the outset. This always results in a technical correction.

In future if I get a second window with out a single 'thoughtful day' late into a move I will consider this an additional reason to assume a blow off phase and to take some profits.

Chart attached
 

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  • gold windows.doc
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Sugar To resume

Sugar gave a profitable ' Baptist 123' awhile back,. see weekly chart.

On the daily it has just posted a bottoming hammer which could be a resumption of its upward move - see daily chart, circled previous hammers.
 

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  • sugar daily.doc
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The Baptist said:
Sugar gave a profitable ' Baptist 123' awhile back,. see weekly chart.

On the daily it has just posted a bottoming hammer which could be a resumption of its upward move - see daily chart, circled previous hammers.



Hi Baptist,

Any stocks still worth a look for a b/o ?

rgds
 
Jessops BO GSK posswatch list candidate

apples10 said:
Hi Baptist,

Any stocks still worth a look for a b/o ?

rgds

Yes indeed.

Despite a bad day for shares I believe my Jessops trade may just be begining a BO. I just missed being stopped out on this one after a fake break and pull back you will note 127.75 was the key level to bypass.

Others brewing but not yet for a BO are. Glaxo GSK and Pendragon is a possible (PDG) but not if it trades lower than 580, down a bit today 588 at present. Charts accurate only up to end of yesterday.

I am still holding out for the possibility GBP/Yen may set off after building a lower base today for our Forex champions.
 

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  • Jessop.doc
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  • gsk.doc
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Happening as we speak GBP/YEN move begining

GBP/ Yen Alert Could it be the begining of the BO check now.
 

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  • Yen BO.doc
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Anyone get a run on the Yen

The Baptist said:
5 min chart yen GBP


yen close to primary typical resistance. bulk of position closed with tight stops, hope some got value on this after some miserable equity calls/days.
 
I was long gbp/jpy from about 207, then saw your post which made me feel good about the trade...closed too early though, around 209.

I did go long gold though as well, and my stop at 570 went awol and I ended up getting stopped out at today's bottom at 538. I think I have a knack at setting my stops at bottoms, it's _really_ annoying. Fortunately made most of that loss back on the cable yo-yo, more chance than skill.
 
Chocolate said:
I was long gbp/jpy from about 207, then saw your post which made me feel good about the trade...closed too early though, around 209.

I did go long gold though as well, and my stop at 570 went awol and I ended up getting stopped out at today's bottom at 538. I think I have a knack at setting my stops at bottoms, it's _really_ annoying. Fortunately made most of that loss back on the cable yo-yo, more chance than skill.


Well done on the GBP Yen, I have ridden it down before when it turns as I believe it has done. But not this time, there is a history of higher lows and we had a long spell at the top and a slightly higher high. so while -ve for now I will look for other long opportunities after a drop.

Also lossed a bit picking Golds bottom, currently long after a serious of hammers at on the 2hr charts, small bars imply vols has died down as well, has me feeling new upside may be afoot.

Posted for this for you.

Coffee appears to be making hammers and starting to hold a low med term, But tomorrow still looks like a down close for now, also posted.

Good luck and watch those stops!
 

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  • 2hr Gold.doc
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  • coffee daily.doc
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  • robcof daily.doc
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Coffee Perkin' Up?

For those following my BO strategy, you may know that i have been holding out for this long termer set up on Coffee.

It came close to violating the previous RL2 point with a low of 1102 vs 1083 RL2. But fortunately for me it did not, It has followed this with a number of compressed spinning top type days and appears to have put its first real +ve day move in with a close at 1142.

This particular trade is a very good pattern over a longer time frame and is one I have treated as a 'super trade' where I apply bigger stop loss, bigger stakes and monitor for the pattern to hold.

If it takes off it, may run for a while as it has a 'Baptists Pattern' even on the yearly level basis as well as for the Daily / weekly one. Next stop Coffee at 6100++ see Long term chart and Gazillionairdom, or then again possible not?
 

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  • Coffee weekly.doc
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  • Coffee Annually.doc
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PFD - Premeir Foods keep an eye for BO

Will post a chart for this later but setting up nicely for those not equity shy.
 
Coffee latest

Coffee latest.

Hopefully the bottoming out has been well signalled by a series of Hammers in the 1100 - 1120 range.
 

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  • Coffee Latest.doc
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Later Still....!

Glad I postively filled me boots' at the 1110-1120 level. I love those belt hold days.

Anyone else in this one?

On a macro level I think this is a potential long runner.
 

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  • Later still.doc
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