Black Dog trading system, a dog with fleas..?

[the hare]

I despair. Do you actually believe that FPA provide impartial reviews ?

 

[Jason101]

Hey all,

I must add that pro members on the black dog forum have given me hours and hours of one on one skype coaching and talks. This is for NO money or gain to themselves. This is more education that I have ever got from this website where mostly its just sarcastic comments and nastiness.

Rant over.

Tommy

Oh look, someone who makes his first post, to defend a 5hitty vendor system, based on 2 MAs and the MACD..

Well done Black Swan, that showed him. I can't think why he was reluctant to make his first post.

By the way Tommy welcome to T2W.

 

[Black Swan]

Please tell me you are taking the **** !

fpa is totally independent, I mean it's not like they take any 'back handers' or ad money do they..?

 

[Christiaan]

ofcourse reviews can be faked.That's why you need to look at the number of reviews you get.Faking 4 or 5 is easy however doing so with a couple of dozen takes a lot of effort.Every username needs a diffrent e-mail address.

Forex peace army is only the start of my reviewing process.If i get good reviews on it i will then read everything i can find on the net regarding the system that includes reading discussions on the system on forum's such as this one.More than that you cannot do because everything the seller tells you is useless.They want your money and have no promblem selling you a scam product to get it.

 

[tommygsxruk]

So you can't make money using MAs and Macds Black Swan? Any good trader can take a few things like these and develop a trading plan around them.

 

[Black Swan]

Any good trader can take a few things like these and develop a trading plan around them.

Agreed..and?

 

[stevespray]

This thread is in danger of going 'off subject'.

We all know the pitfalls of buying systems via the internet. We do not need another thread on that particular subject (in my opinion) along with all the historyonics that goes along with it.

In my own experience BD is no rip off. Far from it. Show me another system vendor who spends the time helping his clients like Dave (the system seller) does? On top of that there is a live trading room. Hard to rip people off when the vendor trades 'real time' in front of you specifying which trades he's taking and also entry prices. Of course you could just follow the experieced traders and make money from shadowing them but the emphasis of the course / room has always been to learn and experience things for yourself as to work yourself into a position to completely independent.

If there's a better system available then I've yet to hear about it!


Steve.

 

[Black Swan]

You system hunters/holy grail hunters really have no idea what you're looking for. Like drunks you stagger from bar to bar looking for the next cheap hit as you sink deeper and deeper. What you fail to realise is that every Eureka, curved fit system, will work..for a while..heh, every dog will have it's day, given the randomness of the market it's a nailed on certainty.

Systems come and go and this black dog with fleas is no different to the TEC system vilified by new naive grail hunting traders in as much as the black dog guys failed, tinkered, failed tinkered, failed tinkered..It is a indicator based mechanical strat. with no discretion which ( like all) is subject to huge drawdowns at which point most new traders will puke, bail and blame the author demanding their money back..

Your chance of having a 30%+ drawdown is still probably circa 50/50 with this system, as it is with most out of the box systems. That'll kill the newbies confidence stone dead. It has experienced a 50% drawdown in the past..Now those 2 issues, added to the fact that one of the systems within the black doo doo (oh yes, as per usual with snake oil you can choose 3 or 4 trading methods with it now) means it is in fact no better than a 50/50 crap shoot with bells on it. This crap shoot reality is re-inforced by the fact that one of the suggested choices is 1:1 RR, risk 20 pips to gain 20 pips principally on a ridiculously adjusted MACD entry off a 15 min time-frame, do you really need a 'system' for that? Dress it up how you like but that is simply a coin toss and there's nothing wrong with that if your MM and psyche is up for it..

The MACD was invented by Gerald Appel in the 1970's. Thomas Aspray adds the histogram to the MACD in 1986 in order to anticipate MACD crossovers, and here you have the black dog guys who tinker with the standard settings to give you their proprietary technique, it'd be like buying a brand new Mercedes and taking it to kwit fit for a different exhaust system on the first day.

You may as well have HA alone on your chart and have a look and a good think as at where you think price will go next as use these $99 a month systems...or "$49 if you sign up for 6 months now, yes siree..!!"

Yep Steve, let's keep it on message...

 

[tommygsxruk]

Agreed..and?

"a 5hitty vendor system, based on 2 MAs and the MACD"

Your words not mine.

I actually made my first post because I was annoyed that you made judgement on something you have no actual experience of.

Just imagine a community like T2W all trading around the same template and there you have the black dog. The author Dave Atkinson didnt invent the holy grail, what he did do is bring together a group of unselfish traders who would all use the one base to create and share ideas from.

What is exactly wrong with that?

I would rather spend my time there than on this site where you get so many differences of opinion on the 'right way to trade' - how is that supposed to help anyone especially beginners at this game?

 

[stevespray]

Swannie...

I agree with Tommy - On this subject you're commenting on something which you know little about. It's easy to mock because you're safe in the knowledge that your mocking hurts the 90% of people who lose in this game. In terms of BD, yes, it is a simple idea and yes the MACDs and other indicators show what a simple concept trading can be. You're correct about people who throw in the towel... But these people are people who are not at a stage where they can learn about how simple trading can be. Due to the amount of money involved they think things must be complicated when in fact they are not. Of course what newbies don't fully grasp is how little edge you need to make money in the longer term. That lesson takes time to learn. Sometimes that understanding is 'blocked' by human aspects.

As an aside.... if you're so down on vendors then how should a perspective trader learn?


Steve.

 

[Jason101]

Agreed..and?

I would imagine the “and” is…..It depends on how the trader trades the system. Do they take a trade on a Friday afternoon? into resistance? into the face of news? if the market looks a bit choppy? on the Asian session? Stagnating? Do they alter their stops? time frames under differing market conditions? Do they have time out stops? do they look for market correlations? do they take profit near a support/resistance point? having discipline? do they scale in/out…etc. etc…

From the sounds of it Tommy and the other black dog system users are saying this is the sort of experience and knowledge they are picking up and discovering on an on-going basis rather than the initial simple indicator based TA framework, which is less important and I am sure can be found for free with a quick Google search.

But I guess you already know that, unless you didn't read all there posts fully.

Have you any experience of this Black Dog community to inform you of your opinions?

 

[Black Swan]

Swannie...

It is a simple idea and yes the MACDs and other indicators show what a simple concept trading can be. Of course what newbies don't fully grasp is how little edge you need to make money in the longer term. That lesson takes time to learn.

If you're so down on vendors then how should a perspective trader learn?

Agreed and that answers the Q. Tis all about the self, the stats on the Black Dog system are warped, it's another curve fit which is why there's been additions..I can see the reasons why the add ons have been made can you, can you really?

 

[Jason101]

BS, you have to be on a wind up here, you are the only one talking about the “system”.

 

[stevespray]

Agreed and that answers the Q. Tis all about the self, the stats on the Black Dog system are warped, it's another curve fit which is why there's been additions..I can see the reasons why the add ons have been made can you, can you really?

The 'addons' aren't really addons in the sense which you describe. You're implying that the addons are some kind of extra filter or fancy programmed indicator - this is not the case. The variations of BD (aka MTF1, MTF2 and MTF3) are simply on going development of a system which is already successful. The idea behind the developments is to create a methodology which is easier to impliment (and more profitable). What the on going developments do not do is alter the basic theory behind the BD methodology - that markets, given time, repeat the same predictable price action. The BD method doesn't tell you when to trade a signal and when to ignore a signal. What it does do well is to draw your attention to 'possible' set ups. If you take every set up (100% mechanically) then you'd make money in the longer term but you'd expose yourself to days where the markets weren't playing ball and therefore performance would be quite 'rollercoaster' like. This is were BD methodology (+the forum) is truely excellent if you bother to take the time to learn. With application and chart time you will start to spot things about price action which simply cannot be programmed into some fancy indicator (or EA). What BD does well is 'drill' you into taking only effective looking set ups like this mornings GBPUSD short for instance.

Hope this helps.


Steve.

 

[Black Swan]

The 'addons' aren't really addons in the sense which you describe. You're implying that the addons are some kind of extra filter or fancy programmed indicator - this is not the case. The variations of BD (aka MTF1, MTF2 and MTF3) are simply on going development of a system which is already successful. The idea behind the developments is to create a methodology which is easier to impliment (and more profitable). What the on going developments do not do is alter the basic theory behind the BD methodology - that markets, given time, repeat the same predictable price action. The BD method doesn't tell you when to trade a signal and when to ignore a signal. What it does do well is to draw your attention to 'possible' set ups. If you take every set up (100% mechanically) then you'd make money in the longer term but you'd expose yourself to days where the markets weren't playing ball and therefore performance would be quite 'rollercoaster' like. This is were BD methodology (+the forum) is truely excellent if you bother to take the time to learn. With application and chart time you will start to spot things about price action which simply cannot be programmed into some fancy indicator (or EA). What BD does well is 'drill' you into taking only effective looking set ups like this mornings GBPUSD short for instance.

Hope this helps.


Steve.

Nope you can't see it can you?..Ah well...

 

[stevespray]

Nope you can't see it can you?..Ah well...

If I answered "yes I can see it" then that would imply that I agreed with you AND that what you stated was fact ie that the addons where added for a partucular reason. It is possible that you are incorrect, have you stopped to consider that? Just because you post your view doesn't automatically your view becomes 'ground zero' or absolute fact. You seem to do that on many subject areas.

With respect to the BD system; I do not agree with you re your 'curve fitting' comment and thus your point regarding 'can I see it' is not a valid question. Curve fitting implies that a system is 100% mechanical in nature, as I said before, BD is more of a methodology than a system thus I can spin the question around and ask you "what exactly is being curve fitted?"

That GBPUSD short is still looking nice by the way!:cheesy: In my earlier post I could have mentioned any one of about ten to twelve pairs which were all showing BD set ups but I choose to mention GBPUSD because it was that particular set up which looked by far the best imho. That's not luck, that's skill!


Steve.

 

[the hare]

That's not luck, that's skill!

Make another 200 calls with exact entries, stops and targets and I might possibly agree.

Even my random robot was short this morning (the dumb one, not the clever one) so what the does that actually prove ?

 

[stevespray]

Make another 200 calls with exact entries, stops and targets and I might possibly agree.

Even my random robot was short this morning (the dumb one, not the clever one) so what the does that actually prove ?

What it proves, in the case of a BD trader, is that by studying the method and improving your price action reading skills you'll start to make better trades.

 

[the hare]

What it proves, in the case of a BD trader, is that by studying the method and improving your price action reading skills you'll start to make better trades.

A single trade proves absolutely nothing at all. As I say, call another 200 in advance with entries stops and targets and you might start to convince me its skill.

 

[stevespray]

A single trade proves absolutely nothing at all. As I say, call another 200 in advance with entries stops and targets and you might start to convince me its skill.

As I already mentioned, it's not the quantity of calls (ie 200) that matters, instead it's the quality which I am personally interested in. I don't like trades where I'm swimming around underwater for hours on end. Instead I like to enter and see a move in my direction pretty quickly. That's another positive for the BD methodology really, it teaches you to sit and wait.

Steve.