Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

BTC 22092020_1.jpg

BTC 22092020_2.jpg

Hi all. From my last post you can see why I don`t like lower time frames and short term BTC analysis at all. It was a good setup but with BTC anything can happen literally from nowhere so that`s why i`m continuing with long term picture.
This time i`ll show you some history and the only question is “Can this history be repeated again?”. From the chart 1 you`ll see and interesting pattern which happened before the second and third ATH. It`s a descending triangle, some sideway move, then an ascending triangle and then… next ATH. It`s happened twice and both times was before the next ATH. Guess what is the chart 2 picturing…? Exactly the same story but it`s happening now. A descending triangle, some sideway move, then an ascending triangle. What`s missing…? Yep, the next ATH! I want to make only 2 clarifications:
1. It`s not 100% sure that the history will repeat but we`ve already saw it so it`s very likely.
2. The latest ascending triangle is not so clear but that`s because of the Corona drop and that drop is something really extraordinary and if the Covid crisis didn`t happened, we would have a perfect ascending triangle. That`s from a technical perspective for now. Now some side words. Like you already may be saw from my charts, i`m a BTC bull. Even a moon boy may be. But let`s be honest for a short term perspective. Exactly in a short term i`m expecting some more blood on the markets and I don`t mean only for a BTC. Like we saw from the last BTC drop, exactly simultaneously Gold, Silver and Oil also dumped. For me that`s a sign of a second Corona dump. It won`t be deadly for BTC for sure but it can hurt, so it`s good all of us to be prepared. Just have this in mind.
The second thing which blew my mind lately is unambiguously. I believe most of you know the story and idea behind the Bitcoin. Also like most of you knows that the real wealthy peoples in the world are small number and they don`t like BTC because they`ll lose their power and they`ll do what`s needed to prevent this from happening. One of these peoples are the Rothschild family. Google them if don`t know who they are. For sure they don`t like BTC but guess what… Their Rothschild Investment Corp is number 15 in the top 20 Institutional Bitcoin Investors list according to not anyone but Forbes. And if that`s not a bullish for BTC…
That’s all for now. See ya next time.
 
Nice analysis as always. Crazy how these patterns repeat themselves or appear to. Hopefully on the verge of a decent bullish move soon.
 
Wow thanks for the history and break down. love seeing it that low and the moves it made. how every one used to say there is no value in BTC and you are wasting your money. if only i had bought a few back then.
cheers for the information and lets hope for the next high
 
Great analysis. I hope you are right, it’s certainly looking promising!
 
BTC 03102020.jpg

Hi all. I`ll be very short but specific this week.
Strange week for Bitcoin and crypto sphere at all. Right? Price swing, Bitmex scandal, Trump with Covid and etc. But you know what? I don`t care about all that. All I can see is a bright Bitcoin future cuz of one simple chart. Do you remember my 3 month quarterly BTC chart from the end of August? If you don`t you can check it at the left side of the chart below. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when we close a 3 month candle above the descending trend line from the last ATH, the run for the next ATH is starting.
Now look at the right side of the chart below and what are you seeing…? Yep, it`s true, a 3 month candle already closed above the descending trend line from the last ATH. So maybe we`ve already started the next ATH run. Only the time will show am I right or not.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 
Be nice to see a decent impulse to the upside followed by some decent support to break out this little rut it is in at the moment
 
momo3HC said:
View attachment 288673
Hi all. I`ll be very short but specific this week.
Strange week for Bitcoin and crypto sphere at all. Right? Price swing, Bitmex scandal, Trump with Covid and etc. But you know what? I don`t care about all that. All I can see is a bright Bitcoin future cuz of one simple chart. Do you remember my 3 month quarterly BTC chart from the end of August? If you don`t you can check it at the left side of the chart below. Like you`ll see from the chart, every time when we close a 3 month candle above the descending trend line from the last ATH, the run for the next ATH is starting.
Now look at the right side of the chart below and what are you seeing…? Yep, it`s true, a 3 month candle already closed above the descending trend line from the last ATH. So maybe we`ve already started the next ATH run. Only the time will show am I right or not.
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
Click to expand...
Definatly hoping and looking for the rise and break up from here been holing at the level for a very long time now which is a good sign of support i am hoping.
 
BTC 01112020_1.jpg

BTC 01112020_2.jpg

Hi all.
Almost a month no see but here i`m back and what a month it was for Bitcoin. In short i`m more and more bullish but let`s get back to charts.
Chart 1:
I`m turning back to my analysis from the end of September. It was about an interesting pattern on a weekly time frame which happened before the second and third ATH. It`s a descending triangle, some sideway move, then an ascending triangle and then next ATH. At the time of those analysis this ascending triangle wasn`t broken up yet but now… yes, the price breaks out above it and that`s the start of the next ATH run for me. And if this doesn`t convince you let`s see the chart 2.
Chart 2:
A monthly chart which complements the previous chart. 3 ATHs again. 3 triangles again. A break out again already. What`s missing again? Yep, the next ATH.
Simply enough? I think yes.
Also I want you to remember one. The path to the next ATH won`t be parabolic. There will be peaks and bottoms so don`t get panic. At this point the major levels are:
Resistance around $13800-$14000.
Support around $13000. Even a drop to $11500-$12000 won`t hurt the bull run and the ascending bull channel (on a daily chart).

That`s all for now. I`ve already prepared something interesting for the next time but i`ll share it in a couple of days.
See ya.
 
Top information, would be great to see thats for sure lets hope it keeps pumping as been Holding
 
Just when it looks to be falling hard it finds support. Seems at the moment to be stuck around the $13.5k mark and is so far beautifully respecting the 50EMA on the 4h chart.
 
BTC 05112020.jpg

Hi all.
Remember what I’ve promised you last time?
The chart today is only one. The time frame of it is strange even for me but it`s really interesting. It`s a yearly time frame chart. Yes, I know it`s big but Bitcoin is a really long term game so let`s see it.
In this chart every candle is one year. The chart shows the price from 2013 till now. We can clearly see two similar patterns. The first one is from 2013 till 2016 and the second one is from 2017 till 2020. This two patterns are with the same structure and only the sizes are different.
* The first one is a big green candle which is the ATH at that moment.
* The second one is a red candle which is the macro correction.
* The third one is again a green one which is some recovery.
* The fourth one is the most interesting. This candle fully recovers the second one and also break out the resistance at that moment and… yes it leads to the next big green ATH candle.
Guess what`s missing nowadays? Did you get it? The fourth one. That`s why this year close is looking to be important. Right now we`re exactly at the line. We have almost 2 months and the momentum looks good at this moment so it`s very possible to see 100% repeat. The most important is to break out from this resistance level. How far is not so important but there`s two scenarios for me.
The left one is the realistic one (lowest history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $17K and next year an ATH at $100K.
The right one is the mooning one (average to high history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $24,8K and next year an ATH at $640K. Personally I’m not a fan of the moon one simply cuz if we close this year at $24,8K this will be an ATH by itself. There`s no sense of this and it`s ruing the model at some point.
Interesting right? I think yes so the only thing that I can say is: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, fellas!
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
 
momo3HC said:
View attachment 290642
Hi all.
Remember what I’ve promised you last time?
The chart today is only one. The time frame of it is strange even for me but it`s really interesting. It`s a yearly time frame chart. Yes, I know it`s big but Bitcoin is a really long term game so let`s see it.
In this chart every candle is one year. The chart shows the price from 2013 till now. We can clearly see two similar patterns. The first one is from 2013 till 2016 and the second one is from 2017 till 2020. This two patterns are with the same structure and only the sizes are different.
* The first one is a big green candle which is the ATH at that moment.
* The second one is a red candle which is the macro correction.
* The third one is again a green one which is some recovery.
* The fourth one is the most interesting. This candle fully recovers the second one and also break out the resistance at that moment and… yes it leads to the next big green ATH candle.
Guess what`s missing nowadays? Did you get it? The fourth one. That`s why this year close is looking to be important. Right now we`re exactly at the line. We have almost 2 months and the momentum looks good at this moment so it`s very possible to see 100% repeat. The most important is to break out from this resistance level. How far is not so important but there`s two scenarios for me.
The left one is the realistic one (lowest history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $17K and next year an ATH at $100K.
The right one is the mooning one (average to high history results and future projections)– closing this year at around $24,8K and next year an ATH at $640K. Personally I’m not a fan of the moon one simply cuz if we close this year at $24,8K this will be an ATH by itself. There`s no sense of this and it`s ruing the model at some point.
Interesting right? I think yes so the only thing that I can say is: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, fellas!
That`s all for now.
See ya next time.
Click to expand...
Incredible when you look at the possibility’s you can see that it is still not to late to get in on the bitcoin world and make some amazing gains
 
This is a very interesting perspective. Thanks for sharing, let's buckle up for the ride!
 
BTC 11092021.jpg

Hi all.
Kind of a hard week and hard times at all and here i`m am again. Is all about Bitcoin lost or it`s just a healthy correction? Guess what… nothing is lost yet, not at all. Be sure that when something in the Bitcoin`s life change in negative direction i`ll admit it but that time isn`t come yet.
In the next 3 posts i`ll show you how nothing has changed in Bitcoin`s technicals (up to this date) after this week`s dip. This 3 charts will be daily, weekly and monthly.
I`m starting with the lowest and may be the less interesting chart – daily. In this chart we`ll see a couple of indicators – 50 MA, 200 MA, EMA Ribbon and the fibo levels. The price is still above the 50 MA and a bit lower from the 200 MA – not a 100% bullish but bullish after all. The more interesting is the interaction between both MA`s. As you`ll see from the chart we`re very close to so called Golden cross – very bullish. What about EMA ribbon? The price is not above it but it`s also not below it. The ribbon itself is not in a flipping position too. These 2 facts are also more bullish than bearish. Fibo levels you can use as support and resistance levels. If we fall way lower, I believe at least the golden pocket (from $38400 and $37600) will react as a strong support and we`ll bounce from there and this will be around $10000 higher than the previous low – positive for the actual bull run.
That`s it for now. Like I said above, this is not so interesting but the next (weekly) chart will be way more interesting and bullish.
See ya and remember… DCA (dollar cost average) all the way. It`s a marathon not a sprint.
 
BTC 18092021.jpg

Hi again all.

Like I told you last time, in 3 consecutive posts i`ll show you why nothing has changed in Bitcoin`s technicals (up to this date) and the bull run is not over yet at all. This time will be the weekly time frame so let`s go straight to the point.
First of all, there`s a lot of indicators in this charts. I don`t like to over use so much indicators but for the use of this post I must. In the left chart we`re seeing:
  • Blue dots – parabolic stop and reverse (PSAR). Very reliable indicator which is still showing bullish signals despite the last week big dip.
  • Yellow to red lines – EMA ribbons. And again, the price is still above it, bouncing from their top, and the ribbons aren`t flipping, despite the last week big dip. Bullish.
  • Green channel - Gaussian channel. Almost the same as the EMA ribbons and even better price action. The price is continuously above the channel, bouncing from it`s top, which is what…? Bullish.
  • The green/red line below the chart - Network Value to Transaction (NVT) and Historical Volatility (HV) combined indicator (NVT&HV). As long as we`re near to 40, there will be big volatility soon. Last week`s dip spiked HV to almost 56, but looks like it`s going back down. The color of the like is showing the potential way of the break. Green is bullish, red is bearish. What color it`s showing now? Green – Bullish.
In the right part of the charts we`re seeing:
  • A beautiful long-term upward channel. Like you`ll see every touch of the top of the channel is the cycle top. We`re we now? In the middle of the channel and the scenario can be exactly like 2013 and 2017 – a touch of the middle line, pull back and then a shot to the next ATH and the top of this channel. A conclusion from all this – bullish.
  • Below the long-term upward channel – Puell Multiple. Very simple – spikes are the tops but they must be over 5. Where it was at $64k price level – around 3,50. Where are we now – 1,24. A plus are the green and red vertical lines. What is the last line – green. Are there any red lines soon – no. A conclusion from all this – bullish.
That`s it for now. Like I said last time, the weekly chart is way more interesting and bullish than may be all the other ones. Next time – a monthly chart.
See ya and remember… DCA (dollar cost average) all the way. It`s a marathon not a sprint.
 
BTC 22092021.jpg

Hi again all.
Here`s the 3rd consecutive post with which i`m showing you why nothing has changed in Bitcoin`s technicals (up to this date) and the bull run is not over yet at all. Despite the last 2 big dips even. This time will be the monthly time frame and won`t be so full of indicators and may be not so interesting like the weekly one but let`s go straight to the point.
The chart actually is a bit of an update to the same one i`ve shared back in June. When you look at the chart you`ll see exactly the same price action in the middle from every halving to the next ATH. What do I mean. First we see the halving. Next we see a very good pump. Then we see a correction. And after this correction we see the next cycle push to the next ATH. All this sideway move and correction periods are closed in a very specific and proportional borders. Like you`ll see in the chart it`s a simple math:
* The top which we must break to the next ATH is equal to the last ATH multiplied by 4.
* The bottom which is acting as a support and we`re fine until the price is above it is equal to the last ATH multiplied by 1.5.
Guess what… this pattern is absolutely still intact. Even the last 2 big dips didn`t ruined it.
The new thing in the chart is the added RSI. The three yellow lines are very significant support or resistance levels. Won`t go into long explanations here but the most important fact is that even with the $64k top we didn`t break the higher line, like back into the last ATH`s, which i`m considering as that we didn`t reach this cycle top.
That`s it for now. Now you have my full vision about the long-term Bitcoin perspectives. Hope it will help you. Next time i`ll show some interesting fractal which i`ve found in the web. It`s now mine but it`s very interesting and I like it.
See ya and remember… DCA (dollar cost average) all the way. It`s a marathon not a sprint.
 
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