Bitcoin (BTC) analysis thread

BTC 20032020.jpg

Hi all. Let me present you my latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis.

First of all let`s check what caused this huge dump.

The main reason must be the COVID19 world threat and yes if you think the same you`re definitely right. But… and this is quite big “BUT”, there`s also some other rumors at which I want to drew attention too.

The first one is Whales. Yes they`re greed. Yes they`re powerful. And yes, they have all the resources to manipulate the market for the simple target… to accumulate more coins at the lowest price possible. In evidence of this (or kind of evidence) I can point the number of BTC whales during this dump – more than 1940.

The second rumor which i`ve heard lately and it`s VERY interesting is that this dump was caused by the miners, big miners and they`ve used COVID19 as a look-alike trigger. In front of the halvening, big miners wanted to destruct small ones with sell off and that must be started from 15th of February. As you must know after the halving this May:

  • The production and the profitability of/from BTC will be cut in half.
  • The expenses to mine will stay the same or even bigger if there`s inflation.
  • The miners will be the same number as now.
And from 1,2 and 3 is popping a problem – competition.

How the big miners can destruct the competition of small ones and get them out of business before the halvening? Easy. With big sell offs, pushing the price down and down till the small ones become unprofitable and capitulate.

Like I said this is just a rumor but it`s very interesting one and may be the latest hashrate is kind of evidence for this theory (about 30% decrease from the latest ATH).

Now let`s get to the technicals.

  • Pivot point for this week is $5794.92 Weekly candle close above it – GOOD. Weekly candle close below it – bad.
  • 200 Weekly SMA – price is back above it – GOOD.
  • Resistances:
  • 1st $6400 (by previous PA)
  • 2nd $7300 (by 61.8 fibo level and previous PA)
  • 3rd $7800 (by previous PA)
  • 4th $8500 (by 50% fibo level and previous PA)
  • Supports:
  • 1st $5300 (by 78.6 fibo level and previous PA)
  • 2nd $4100 (by previous PA)
  • And last but not least check the purple marks. In short, every time when we see such high volume and such highs or lows in price, the trend reversed afterwards.
P.S. Last thing which i`ve checked is Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It shows extreme fear and I have a moto: “Buy the fear and sell the greed.”

That is my vision for the latest circumstances and the future possibilities about Bitcoin.
 
Defintely seems to be on an upward trend for now but once hte virus really grips the US I expect to see a massive dump again. Arguably worse than the recent dump
 
Bearish outlook right now for me on BTC,

Daily shows a big retest in play with rejection at the horizontal and diagonal resistance!

BTC.png
 
Corona panic effect nicely clearing out the networks of speculators.

Now all we need is a decent run on the banks to highlight the advantages of cryptocurrency over fake money.

Not there yet, but there's hope.

😷
 
momo3HC said:
View attachment 276460
Hi all. Let me present you my latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis.

First of all let`s check what caused this huge dump.

The main reason must be the COVID19 world threat and yes if you think the same you`re definitely right. But… and this is quite big “BUT”, there`s also some other rumors at which I want to drew attention too.

The first one is Whales. Yes they`re greed. Yes they`re powerful. And yes, they have all the resources to manipulate the market for the simple target… to accumulate more coins at the lowest price possible. In evidence of this (or kind of evidence) I can point the number of BTC whales during this dump – more than 1940.

The second rumor which i`ve heard lately and it`s VERY interesting is that this dump was caused by the miners, big miners and they`ve used COVID19 as a look-alike trigger. In front of the halvening, big miners wanted to destruct small ones with sell off and that must be started from 15th of February. As you must know after the halving this May:

  • The production and the profitability of/from BTC will be cut in half.
  • The expenses to mine will stay the same or even bigger if there`s inflation.
  • The miners will be the same number as now.
And from 1,2 and 3 is popping a problem – competition.

How the big miners can destruct the competition of small ones and get them out of business before the halvening? Easy. With big sell offs, pushing the price down and down till the small ones become unprofitable and capitulate.

Like I said this is just a rumor but it`s very interesting one and may be the latest hashrate is kind of evidence for this theory (about 30% decrease from the latest ATH).

Now let`s get to the technicals.

  • Pivot point for this week is $5794.92 Weekly candle close above it – GOOD. Weekly candle close below it – bad.
  • 200 Weekly SMA – price is back above it – GOOD.
  • Resistances:
  • 1st $6400 (by previous PA)
  • 2nd $7300 (by 61.8 fibo level and previous PA)
  • 3rd $7800 (by previous PA)
  • 4th $8500 (by 50% fibo level and previous PA)
  • Supports:
  • 1st $5300 (by 78.6 fibo level and previous PA)
  • 2nd $4100 (by previous PA)
  • And last but not least check the purple marks. In short, every time when we see such high volume and such highs or lows in price, the trend reversed afterwards.
P.S. Last thing which i`ve checked is Crypto Fear & Greed Index. It shows extreme fear and I have a moto: “Buy the fear and sell the greed.”

That is my vision for the latest circumstances and the future possibilities about Bitcoin.
Click to expand...
anything for today? I am uncertain what direction btc is headed now. we see some slumps then a step back up and now what, it wont reach 7k... what are your thoughts here mate?
 
Keep in mind that there are currently substantial fluctuations in network capacity.

Coupled with the extreme volatility in the fiat currency and stock markets, that makes for interesting swings in crypto values.

😷
 
AdamCantor said:
anything for today? I am uncertain what direction btc is headed now. we see some slumps then a step back up and now what, it wont reach 7k... what are your thoughts here mate?
Click to expand...
Must have an update till the end of next week. ;)
 
BTC 05042020.jpg

Hi all. Here`s my latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis.

First of all I`ve got to mention that this is my short term analysis and it`s going to be really short.

In the next few days i`ll present you my really long term (kind of edited) analysis too.



Now let`s get to the technicals.

The main point here is the ascending triangle at 4H chart. This pattern most of the time leads to a bullish breakout but we`ll see.

  • Pivot point for this week is $6182.09
  • We`re far above it right now which is awesome for this and the next week.
  • Resistances:
  • 1st $7100-7300 (a MAJOR one) – that`s the top of the ascending triangle and also 61.8 fibo level at weekly chart. A break above it will be a strong bullish signal.
  • 2nd $7800 (by previous PA)
  • 3rd $8500 (by 50% fibo level and previous PA) – here the resistance can be even a bit lower by VPVR indicator.
  • Supports:
  • 1st $6400 (last resistance)
  • 2nd $5600 (MAJOR support by historical PA)
One last point for today. Thanks to Glassnode we can monitor a lot of on-chain activity out there. The last thing that i`ve noticed is the enormous amount of Tether USD (USDT) which is stacking into exchanges. And now you`ll be asking: “So what?”. USDT is the easiest way to buy/sell BTC for the so called whales. But is you`re selling BTC, the you`ll cash out BTC for USDT and then for real cash. But when you want to be fast with buying BTC, then you`re staking your real cash to USDT in exchanges and just patiently wait to start buying BTC. Isn`t simple enough?

That`s from me for now.
 
BTC 08042020.jpg

Hi all. Like i`ve promised you last week, today i`ve made a very long term BTC analysis. In this analysis it`s all about next expected all time high (ATH) in a matter of price and time. It`s a bit more conservative or realistic even than the last long term one in which I`ve pointed $170k as a ATH price. I`m not saying that $170k is impossible but this analysis is more conservative like I already said. So let`s go.

All is a simple math and price action.

  • The 1st ATH after the 1st halving took 334 days from the halving and the price increased with around 11000% from the halving since the ATH.
  • The 2nd ATH after the 2nd halving took 518 days from the halving and the price increased with around 3100% from the halving since the ATH.
Counting on the mentioned above the 3rd ATH after the 3rd halving must take 800 days from the halving and the price must increase with around 900-1000%. Why? Simple math and multiplication. If the price at this year`s halving is around $7000, this is setting the price around $70000 per single BTC somewhere around June 2022 (confirmation to the same date from the previous long term analysis).

Another question can be why every time it took more days and the price increasing is lower. Simple again – Because with the price increase it needs more and more money to be pumped for the same or even smaller price move in time.

Why i`ve marked the start of the next ATH period from Dec `21? That`s more because of the sentiment or feeling than to some numbers. The single fact here is that every ATH since now was happened Nov-Dec next year after the halving year or simply said – 4 years after last ATH. That`s why Dec`21 or even Jan`22 is a good start of the next ATH period or even the exact ATH time.

There`s nothing more to be said here so let`s summarize all about the next expected Bitcoin ATH:

PRICE: around $70000
TIME: from Dec`21 to June`22

P.S. I`m really curious to see your thoughts about the next Bitcoin ATH too.
 
I can see your logic in looking at the previous halvings to guide your pricing and timings. Let's hope it's correct. Better get loading up if so!
 
Crypto currencies making 10% moves daily, makes it interesting for intraday trading. Coins are highly cointegrated, thus good to use cross market info. Better to trade more volatile coins than BTC, such as LTC, but using BTC info also.
VIX.png
 
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