Big Brother 5 Spreadbetting!

[Bluewave]

The Big Brother 5 spread-betting community

As most of you probably know, Big Brother 5 starts tonight. In previous years (and for shows such as I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here, I have made good money spreadbetting by predicting winners, losers, evictions etc. I dunno, maybe my public psychology skills are better than my TA ones?!

It's a lot of fun and makes a change from looking at financial charts and news! There are of course plenty of bookmakers with BB prices, but I prefer to use the ones that use spreads, such as: Sporting Index (special offer for opening a new account, see the site) and BetHiLo (currently offering £15 cashback for new accounts).

I will use this thread to document the trades I make and my general opinions about BB, the contestants, how public opinion is changing etc. on a regular basis. I would enjoy hearing from other's who are trying to make money from the show, or even those that have an opinion about it, please!

I had better state now: The trades and thoughts shown in my posts are my own. Please do not attempt to copy my trades; I cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred due to trading opinions expressed here. If you do spreadbet BB, please do so with money you can afford to lose and have fun!.

My next update will be on Saturday once we know who the contestants are, and if there is sufficient interest in this thread I will give out a spreadsheet I use that helps documenting daily price changes, current trade values, number of eviction votes etc.

 

[Bigbusiness]

I have vowed not to watch BB this year. Last year was a lot worse than watching paint dry but I fear I will get sucked in again. The E4 coverage is one of the worst bits of TV I have ever seen but it is still better than watching Bloomberg

 

[adrianallen99]

The winner last year came from a place called Orkney. Cameron Stout.

I use to see this guy almost every day when I walked my kids to school in his little office down stomness high street. He is a decent bloke, but I think his head has got a little larger since winning.

 

[Bluewave]

The winner last year came from a place called Orkney. Cameron Stout.

I use to see this guy almost every day when I walked my kids to school in his little office down stomness high street. He is a decent bloke, but I think his head has got a little larger since winning.

Kinda inevitable when you get your own radio show!

But his win was interesting because the younger viewers (i.e. the majority) were not generally supporting him on the BB forums. Yet, it was the less vocal (online) people of the middle-ages upwards who picked up the phone to keep him in till the end. You can argue all you like that "Rampaging Randy Ray" should have won last year, but he just simply didn't have the general public willing to spend money on votes.

As for how on earth Scott got through to the last 3 last year is another debate all together!Anyway, I had predicted he wouldn't do better than third place, and either Ray or Cameron would win. As it turned out, my trading brought home some nice profits!

 

[Bluewave]

First impressions....

This could be more of a challenge to watch this year than any other year! It looks like the BB production team have gone all out to create controversy and arguments after being heavily criticised for a "boring show" last year.

However, if first impressions are anything to go by, the "freak show" that they seem to have created could actually put people off watching. But it's early days yet.... they are all a bit OTT at the start to try and impress the other house mates while taking it all in.

Most of the guys seem to be alpha males, or as some people might say, "arrogant w&^k£*s"! There will be a jostling for position in the house hierarchy which could cause some friction.

The girls are quite a mix.

Ok, here are my first impressions of each house mate:

(1) Ahmed: What has this guy let himself into!! Clearly the Cameron replacement from last year, but while Cameron went onto win, I can't see this guy getting beyond the 5th week. Doesn't like homosexuals which could cause arguments with Marco, Daniel and Kitten! Yet he doesn't appear to be thrusting his opinions down the HMs throats too much so far, and may be a calming influence in the house in general - ie. father figure?. Was an asylum seeker, but now a British Citizen and likes to talk about his experiences of the system. Intelligent and fluent in 5 languages with a law degree. Likes to think of himself as a property tycoon, using his brain to further himself. Won't enjoy doing the silly BB games. Could prove a tough contestant psychologically if he manages to stay to the end.

(2) Daniel: Tall, slightly arrogant but a bit of a charmer. Can be moody at times. Knows how to keep ladies mentally amused and likely to be a favourite with the female HMs. Thinks of himself as intellectual, and sounds intelligent when he speaks. He seems the right balance of fun yet serious, and may well get to the end if he doesn't annoy the public too much along the way. I think he'll know how to put the other guys in their place, and his sheer height already gives him a presence in the house. Something about him makes me think he's like a gay version of Jon from last years BB.

(3) Emma: Dippy northern girl who talks too much but is friendly and will be liked by the public. Bit like Jade from 2 years ago though less annoying! Other HMs won't feel threatened by her especially if she talks a load of tosh most of the time. Will get on with Marco the most. Gullible and naive and afraid to show any flesh or see others jumping from bed to bed.

(4) Jason: Arrogant poser, self-confident, likes being active. Sees himself as the "main man" in the house and won't like it if others ignore his opinions. Apparently he likes things being orderly (closet obsessive-compulsive?) and likes routine which could cause friction with the other HMs, most of whom admit to being messy! Likes to be highly groomed and worried what the nation will think after seeing him furtively shaving his chest, shaping his eyebrows etc. Joint contender of "top himbo" with Stuart and therefore likely to get the female vote depending on his opinions.

(5) Kitten: Jarvis Cocker lookalike?! Frankly she's not very kitten like with a huge chip on her shoulder. Politically-correct lesbian, opinionated, trying to be controversial but her entrance act appeared contrived. I have a feeling her opinions will backfire on her and she'll appear to be a hypocrite. Don't see her making close friends in the house and therefore attracting an early eviction. She hasn't enamoured herself to the public already who will take the first opportunity they get to vote her out.

(6) Marco: More camp than a field of tents! Many will find him intensely annoying, childish and way over the top, and if he gets an early eviction vote, the public will most likely vote him out. The other gay man, Daniel, won't like him much either due to his campness. He's like Brian from 2 years ago, but less witty and twice as camp. But, must be intelligent as he's studying law and is vice chairman of his uni's Law Society. Says he likes to stir things up and this could mean the other HMs will vote for him to have an early eviction, but the public may keep him in for the entertainment value. I can't see him winning due to Brian winning 2 years ago.

(7) Michelle: Pretty Geordie but went quiet very quickly once in the house. She's a bit like Tania was from last years show - quiet at the start but noticed more towards the end. Will be very attractive to the guys who may see her as "more accessible" than Vanessa.

(8) Nadia: Well, it had to happen one year. Yes, BB includes a transsexual and some of the HMs have guessed her secret already! Her inclusion will create plenty of newspaper column inches, which BB needs to stay alive. Her accent is annoying to my ears and she's quite loud - watch as Daniel takes the pi$$ out of her accent soon!. But she seems intelligent enough with a sense of humour and confident when she speaks. The guys don't know quite what to make of her, and probably if up for eviction the public would keep her in due to the fascination factor.

(9) Shell: Talks posh but fairly down to earth (flock of sheep owning aside!). She's a bit like Nush from last year's show. Will probably get on with most of the other HMs and therefore unlikely to get many eviction votes. Her relative normality might make the public overlook her also.

(10) Stuart: A "himbo" if ever there was one! Keeps repeating his 4 A's A-level achievement and claims he's intelligent and everyone likes him, but unlikely to achieve much more. Seemed surprised by the strong characters (egos!) of the other guys and may well take a back seat role. Silly bandana look! Will undoubtedly get the teen girl vote.

(11) Vanessa: "Posh" blonde bombshell ("Yaaww"), centre of attention (and doesn't like others being "me, me, me"), intelligent but surprisingly down to earth. Might have dark side as she is an archery champion and likes heavy metal music. The other girls might be jealous of her, but I think she knows how to communicate well enough to win friends. Won't take any crap from the guys!

(12) Victor: Love him or hate him kinda guy. Thinks he's slick and "'da man", but very argumentative and opinionated. Arrogant and likes being a leader, even though he may not be the best leader in a group. Intelligent enough, but if he can't be bothered to listen to the other HMs they will want him out early on.
--------------------------------

Phew, if you've got this far well done! If I had to stick my neck out this early on, this is who I think will be in the final three, in no particular order:

(1) Emma
(2) Daniel
(3) Shell

First eviction? Either Kitten, Marco or possibly Victor.

 

[adrianallen99]

I think they have tried too hard this year, these are about the most annoying bunch so far. It was very hard to watch. Don't think Ill bother.

 

[JTrader]

Same old dross in a slightly different format. This kind of TV makes my brain itch.

 

[Bluewave]

There doesn't seem to be much interest in spread-betting BB on these boards, but I'll carry on with this thread for a bit longer, even if it feels like I'm talking to myself

The spreads set for each HM are based on this scale: Winner = 60, 2nd = 40, 3rd = 30, 4th = 20, 5th = 10, Below = 0

As I write, these are the spreads being offered:

Daniel Performance: 26-29
Shell Performance: 22-25
Stuart Performance: 22-25
Vanessa Performance: 15-18
Emma Performance: 15-18
Marco Performance: 12-15
Michelle Performance: 9-12
Jason Performance: 8-11
Victor Performance: 7-9
Kitten Performance: 5-7
Nadia Performance: 4-6
Ahmed Performance: 2-4

So, let's say you thought Ahmed was going to win. By buying Ahmed at 4 for £10, the margin requirement would be £40 (which is the maximum you could lose if Ahmed fails to place in top 5). If Ahmed did win you'd make £560 ( [60-4] * 10 ).

So you can see, choosing who to trade depends on the relative value you think a certain HM's spread is at, and also how much margin you can afford, or how much you can afford to lose. By selling a HM that already has a low price, the margin is much more for a relatively small return. And vice versa with buying a HM with a high price.

BB can and will change the rules as the programme progresses, especially this year with "rebellious" HMs. Today BB warned the HMs that any more rule breaking and someone would be evicted - note, not neccessarily the person who broke the rules.

The twist in the first Friday eviction this year, is that the evictee goes to another secret part of the house, where they can watch the other housemates and reek revenge when they go back into the main house later on. This means choosing who to put a trade on is particularly tricky.

I have yet to open a trade. If Kitten is the first to be evicted into the secret house, at least she would be safe from leaving the house for good for at least a week, and so her current price may be cheap. The top five of Daniel, Stuart, Shell, Vanessa and Emma don't offer much value yet, but on the other end of the scale, maybe a buy of Nadia at 6 looking for 4th or 5th place would be a good trade.

 

[Bluewave]

It's been a while since I updated this thread. As of yet I haven't entered a BB trade mainly because my opinions keep changing about the HMs, and also BB is changing the rules so often.

Currently these are the spreads:

Daniel Performance: 25-28
Shell Performance: 23-26
Stuart Performance: 23-26
Emma Performance: 17-20
Jason Performance: 16-19
Vanessa Performance: 12-15
Marco Performance: 7-10
Michelle Performance: 7-10
Victor Performance: 5-7
Nadia Performance: 4-6
Ahmed Performance: 1-3

Michelle and Emma are in the bedsit, and able to watch the other HMs. They seem to be getting more and more riled in there, and Emma keeps going on about "cabin fever". But we don't know when they will return to the main house... it could be within days or after another week! Also, when they return they can't be nominated for eviction, but they were able to nominate the others today.

So, predicting who will be nominated for Friday's eviction is a tricky one. My own analysis would suggest Ahmed and Victor (the bedsit girls will both nominate Victor for sure!) - but I wouldn't be surprised if 3 HMs were up for eviction, and the public will vote for the most annoying to leave.

Stuart hasn't really upset anyone inside the house, and would look to be a strong favourite to get to the last 3; it'll depend how he reacts when Michelle returns.

Shell is liked and favoured by many, but I feel that if she continues to accuse and gossip behind people's backs, and if she is up for eviction, she'll be voted out.

Dan is playing a good game, so is Jason and Vanessa. Victor thinks he's playing a good game, but his self-assurances of his "Da Slick" personality is grating on the HMs and certainly the public.

Ahmed could well be the surprise now. He may get nominated week after week because the other HMs don't understand him and his culture, but the public may choose to keep him in for as long as possible. With such a low performance spread, it could be a good bet, if a little risky, to back him to the top 4 or 5.

I will update again as soon as I open some trades. Again, I would be happy to answer any questions, and hear your opinions about trading BB.

 

[Bluewave]

With the return of the bedsit girls, Emma and Michelle, and their predictable lack of secrecy about where they'd been and what they'd been able to observe, it all got a bit heated last night.

Another food fight between the "kids" happened, which caused Vanessa to complain about the waste, and tipped Jason over the age (Marco goading him with the seal noises didn't help either!). While Jason was threatening to knock Marco's head off, Nadia got between them, then Victor joined in as peacemaker.

Emma seemed to see this as a sign to wade into Victor, armed with the knowledge of what he had been saying about her, and before long there were a few pushes, plenty of harsh words and some wine thrown at Emma.

Victor was duly dragged into the diary room, and Dan literally picked up Emma to take her out of the kitchen/lounge area. Meanwhile, Shell seemed to have a panic attack due to all the commotion. Ahmed, bless his soul, was in bed missing all the action!

The result? One heck of a mess in the house, a lot of bad feelings being surfaced, Emma sleeping in the bedsit again, and a couple of security guards posted in the house! Somehow I get the feeling this won't be the last of the major arguments, mainly centred around Emma and Victor.

Yesterday I made my first trades. Thinking Emma wouldn't be able to contain herself on her house return, I saw value in her rising performance price, and shorted her at 22. This seems to have been well timed as today - the calm after the storm - she's shown herself to be an angry little madam who doesn't know the meaning of diplomacy, and can't seem to argue with her mind (unlike Michelle). Hence, her performance spread today is 11-14, putting me in profit within hours. I will hold this trade because I can't see Emma making the top 5, and as soon as she can be nominated, the other HMs will put her up for eviction.

The other trade I made was buying Nadia at 6-8. As long as she has enough ciggies she brings some life to the house. Although she still hasn't told the HMs about her sex change, even when they were talking about it the other night, and I'm unsure how some of them would react. I feel the public are a little fascinated by her and am looking for a 4th or above placement, but if her performance drops to 4-6 I'll bail out.

The surprise nominations this week mean Dan and Vanessa are up for eviction. The polls would suggest Vanessa is going to walk, although Dan's early popularity was waning as he took on the "Dad" role more. I was tempted to buy his spread yesterday at 17, thinking that all those punters who put early bets on him winning will be strongly voting against anyone that is up for eviction with him. In the end I ummed and ahhed and didn't take the trade, and today his performance is 23-26! Dan has a knack for empathising with the other HMs, and certainly seems intelligent enough, but whether he can win this year is another matter.

Here are the performance spreads as I write:

Shell Performance: 28-31
Stuart Performance: 28-31
Daniel Performance: 23-26
Marco Performance: 18-21
Michelle Performance: 12-15
Emma Performance: 11-14
Jason Performance: 7-10
Nadia Performance: 6-9
Victor Performance: 4-6
Ahmed Performance: 3-5
Vanessa: 2-4

 

[Bluewave]

Emma was kept in the bedsit after "fight night" for a couple of days, and for whatever reasons (psychological?) she wasn't allowed back in the house. Apparently Victor refused to apologise to her and she didn't get the chance to talk through her issues before leaving.

Some might not see any justice in that Victor, Jason and Nadia remain in the house while Emma was forced (more or less) to leave. The BB producers obviously came to the conclusion that they couldn't risk everything kicking off again if she went back in, and since her eviction the house has been in a more relaxed mood.

Anyway, on the BB webpage her photo is now adorned with a "GONE" instead of "EVICTED", but I don't really care what you call it, because her leaving gave me 22 performace points! Actually, just before it was officially announced she wasn't going back in the house, I tried to short her performance again at 11, but BetHiLo were having none of it and made the bet void.

The latest performance spreads:

Daniel Performance: 30-33
Shell Performance: 30-33
Stuart Performance: 27-30
Marco Performance: 17-20
Michelle Performance: 14-20
Jason Performance: 6-9
Nadia Performance: 6-9
Ahmed Performance: 4-6
Victor Performance: 3-5
Vanessa Performance: 0.25-1.5

It looks pretty definite than Vanessa will be leaving this Friday. She should have gone last Friday but BB producers delayed the proper eviction due to the Emma mess. Dan's performance spread has continued to rise and rise since his Koffi Annan impression on "fight night", but I wonder if he will be nominated again next Monday. If he was nominated with, say, Marco or Nadia, it'd be a tough decision who to bet to be evicted. I am tempted to short him now as his performance spread is back up to the highest it's ever been, and then cash-in if it drops to around the 20-25's.

My Nadia bet isn't in the money, but I'm happy to hold it for now. As the psychologists said, how much longer she has in the house depends on how the HMs react if she eventually tells them she's a transsexual. I personally think they'll be cool with it - they've just made a statue with boobs and a w*lly which brought the group together, but made Nadia have pained expressions!!

Meanwhile Jason is getting more and more bored, and more detached from the group. He's talked several times about "walking" and how he hopes he is nominated next week. Marco and Nadia continue to wind him up and his overall grumpiness won't be tolerated by the HMs. He is a game player, but whether he'll receive enough votes to be put in the eviction list is debateable. For sure if he is up for eviction, he'll recieve plenty of votes, and for this reason I have shorted his performance at 6.

So, current trades open:
Nadia, long @ 8
Jason, short @ 6

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points

 

[Bluewave]

A lot seems to have happened since my last update. Vanessa was evicted with a ground-breaking 86% of the vote to boos and cheers. I don't know why the HMs get so upset at the boos - to me it's all like a pantomime! Since the eviction Dan's performance spread has rocketed into the 40's, a sure sign that there are new supporters backing him.

Last Sunday another housemate entered the house, Becki Seddiki, to replace Kitten who was chucked out after numerous warnings. Her entrance was predicted by the papers, who published her details and website address and this all seems rather suspicious to me. Especially as The Sun say she was one of the "house testers" before BB5 began proper. Anyway, if she's a plant or puppet, the other HMs don't seem to know, although they suspect she has been watching more of the show than she's let on.

New HMs this late in the game never do well. Every one in each series gets put up for nomination very quickly, and the public inevitably vote them out. I don't hold much hope for Becki either, although she's working overtime befriending as many HMs as she can. I think taking a short position would be sensible; if she is genuine she'll never have the popularity of the original HMs, if she's a BB puppet she won't be allowed to win and would be taken out automatically.

Marco's spread has plummeted since the nomination results were announced: Marco, Nadia and Michelle are up for eviction, bringing a shock to Marco's harem. I am kicking myself now for stalling on not taking a short position on Marco when his spread was up at 17-20 range - such is hindsight. However just after the nominations were announced I did open a short on him at 7. Since then the money has been piling in for Marco to be evicted this Friday, with Michelle a close second, and Nadia drifting out in the odds (which suits me!).

It seems a bit unfair on Michelle because she was automatically put up for eviction after puppet Becki was told to give someone the "kiss of death", Judas style, or she herself would be up for eviction. Watching the footage it seems Becki had two people in mind and played a little "which hand is the ciggie in" game with Ahmed to help her decision - hence, Ahmed may have inadvertantly chosen Michelle!

When Michelle found out she had been nominated she went off on one, accusing all, but if she'd actually sat and thought about it she'd have realised they aren't enough HMs to have nominated all 3 of the Harem! Becki's secret is safe for now.

The Harem and supporters were in shock because they honestly thought either Victor of Jason would also be up for eviction. Jason nearly was with 4 votes (the nominees all had 5), and could well be up next week. I'd also love to see either Shell (who accuses Ahmed of everything) or boring Stu being nominated, but this seems incresingly unlikely as the Jungle Cats and Harem try to pick each other off.

Big Brother producers have been changing the rules all over the place, and I wouldn't be surprised if this Friday's eviction brings another twist in the tail: perhaps the evictee gets to choose a HM for automatic nomination the following week.

So, with all this uncertainty I feel more comfortable backing losers than winners. But there is relatively little value. There are 10 HMs remaining, and 4 must go before we get into the money positions of 6 to 1. At the moment there is no-one in the middle ground, with Dan, Shell and Stuart hovering around the 2nd and 3rd places. I am happy to hold on my Nadia long, and Jason & Marco shorts, and may open a Becki short if her performance creeps to 10 or above.

A week is a long time in the BB house, and who knows, there could be surprise nominations next week. I just don't feel it's quite the right time to follow the crowd and back one of the present top 3 for a winning position.

Current performance spreads:

Daniel Performance: 38-41
Shell Performance: 33-36
Stuart Performance: 29-32
Michelle Performance: 9-12
Becki Performance: 8-11
Nadia Performance: 8-11
Victor Performance: 7-10
Jason Performance: 7-10
Ahmed Performance: 5-7
Marco Performance: 4-6

Current trades open:
Nadia, long @ 8
Jason, short @ 6
Marco, short @ 7

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points

 

[Bluewave]

Another Friday, and another likely eviction about to happen. Becki, as predicted, is due to be evicted tonight, yet again emphasising that standby HMs never do well in this game.

I was happy that Marco left last week (the bonus was collecting 7 performance points), and the house seems to have generally settled down more now, with more laughter and less demarcation between the 2 sides. Just after Marco left most of the group were together laughing at Stu's stories of "Team Handsome" and it made for a pleasant change... actually, the laughter was very infectious!

Unfortunately Becki's spread never made it above 10, so I didn't short her. As soon as her nomination was announced, the spread plummeted and as you can see below, it's now at a level for a foregone conclusion she'll be leaving tonight.

I suspect Jason will be one of the ones up for eviction next week, and so will hold my short on him. Victor is playing a superb game and could well end up in the top 4. Meanwhile, Nadia has been collecting supporters and her present performance spread puts me well in profit with 14 points, but I have a feeling she can still go higher yet, especially if Dan or Shell are evicted. At one point, Nadia was 2nd favourite to win according to a few bookies!

So, the middle ground is controlled by Shell, Nadia and Michelle. Interestingly, Michelle has had a "final formal warning" for moving the diary room camera, so one more bad step and she would be out. But then, many consider Jason to be on his 3rd formal warning and he's still there! Yes, the BB warning rules are all over the place this year.

Dan has also said if he makes it to the final 3 he would walk. I am guessing this is his way of appearing to be "cool" and he doesn't want the attention the winner would experience. If push came to shove though, it'd be interesting to see if he would do it..... in which case a small short at his present price of 34 would be value.

As things stand, I can imagine Nadia or Victor winning, with Stuart or Shell in second, and Dan third, Michelle fourth. The timing of a double eviction is the crucial point for this to happen though. It's just a shame the HMs are intelligent enough to nominate the ones more likely to win, rather than the ones they "don't get along with".

Current performance spreads:

Daniel Performance: 34-37
Stuart Performance: 34-37
Shell Performance: 26-29
Nadia Performance: 22-25
Michelle Performance: 18-21
Victor Performance: 13-16
Jason Performance: 4-6
Ahmed Performance: 4-6
Becki Performance: 0.1-1

Current trades open:
Nadia, long @ 8
Jason, short @ 6

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points
Marco, short @ 7 = 7 points

 

[Bluewave]

So Becki left last week (surprise, surprise. Not!) and the remaining HMs started an Army task, with Michelle and Jason the Sergeants, and the others the Privates.

The twist in the task was that the Sergeants needed to motivate the Privates to pass the task to prevent themselves (the Segeants that is) from being nominated. If the Privates passed the task all 6 of them would be nominated, so all that work would have been for nothing.

That was the theory, and even though many on the forums had seen up to 17 task failures (they were allowed 3 per day), and Ahmed had attempted a coup (lol!), the BB producers allowed the Privates to pass! I suppose we shouldn't be that amazed because this series has been 1 long episode of rule changes and decisions made by the producers to suit their personal agendas. With 6 HMs up for eviction it will mean more money for Endemol

Anyway, early on after the nominations were announced it became clear Ahmed was the most likely to leave come this Friday. Victor is next most likely, then Shell but Ahmed's "I am sick" antics during the Army task, and his arguements with Michelle have sealed his fate on the sinking ship.

The lack of cigarettes this week brought Nadia to the diary room to plead with Big Brother, and her threats of leaving seemed to do the trick and BB caved in by giving her some tobacco. Her screaming at Jason was getting a bit much and I got cold feet and cashed in while her performance was at 30-33, making a nice 22 points of profit. Of course I'll be kicking myself if she goes on to win the show now.... but it's money in the bank and I won't be worrying about how the public reacts to her lack of ciggies in the future!

Another trade I made recently was to short Dan @ 32. I talked about this last week, and this week Ahmed had Dan verbally against a wall after asking him to confirm whether he would walk if he got to the final 3. Dan basically said at first that it'd depend on the other 2 there with him - if Shell and Stuart then he thought he'd lose, so he'd walk. But Ahmed said it shouldn't depend on who the others are, and Dan reluctantly agreed and then confimed again to Ahmed, Jason and Victor that he would walk.

I think Dan is being honest here, even though he may not have shown us his complete personality, I don't think he's got a game plan. It was his friends who said he should enter BB, and he increasingly looks bored in the house; I think he would see winning as being rather "uncool". Also, he could make more money by giving exclusive interviews by walking out early.

I am holding onto my Jason short hoping that he'll be nominated for next week's eviction, but this Jungle Cat seems to have more eviction lives than most! Could he actually do better than Victor?!

I am still waiting for a double eviction. Whether it will be down to the public, or whether a fresh evictee will get the chance to choose someone to join them on the outside is hard to tell right now. Certainly it's getting harder to decide who to back/lay, as we are getting nearer to the 6th place which has a Performance value of 5. To remind you: Winner = 60, 2nd = 40, 3rd = 30, 4th = 20, 5th = 10, 6th = 5, Below = 0

From reading the forums and through personal opinion, I'd judge Shell to be on "dodgy ground" - she's quite insipid and many don't want her to win, but unfortunately Ahmed will be voted to leave this week instead of one of the fence-sitters. Whether the public will have another chance to vote for her eviction will depend on future rule changes, and how the double eviction is decided.

As for value in the other's prices, I am really quite undecided. I think I'll just have to wait and see what happens day-by-day and try to scalp a few points here and there. As such I will try to update this thread more frequently.

Bye for now.

Current performance spreads:

Michelle Performance: 31-34
Stuart Performance: 31-34
Daniel Performance: 28-31
Nadia Performance: 26-29
Shell Performance: 20-23
Victor Performance: 11-14
Jason Performance: 5-7
Ahmed Performance: 0.1-1

Current trades open:
Jason, short @ 6
Dan, short @ 32

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points
Marco, short @ 7 = 7 points
Nadia, long @ 8 = 22 points

 

[Bluewave]

Ahmed finally got his "night with Davina", and left to much booing (which he seemed to enjoy!). Victor heard the huge amount of booing when his name was called out, and was momentarily perturbed, but soon bounced back and seemed pleased that he was making a reaction with the public.

The Jungle Cats are now reduced to 2, Jason and Victor, and the other HMs seem to be bonding together (after Ahmed's eviction they all went into the diary room naked). Monday's nominations will be very interesting....

The bookies got spooked on Wednesday with so many newspaper reports that last Friday would be a double eviction; lo and behold the rumours were wrong. As a result the company I trade with suspended betting till today (Saturday) which made me very angry. I couldn't check prices or do anything with my current positions, and after checking my account standing today I am well out of profit with my trade on Daniel. On saying that, if his performance index gets into the 40's again, I will definitely short again as even a 3rd place will make a few points.

Nadia's performance spread lept up again today (knew I shouldn't have closed my position so early!! ), while Michelle and Stuart's seems to have peaked for now. Shell, being the insipid HM that she is, is continuing to spiral downwards, but will she be nominated again before the final week? Probably not.

I suspect Jason will be nominated on Monday, but who he'll be up against is hard to guess. I think Victor is safe, and it might well be one of the "fence sitters", Dan, Stuart or even Michelle. Jason against Dan or Stuart would see him evicted, but if against Michelle it would be a close call. Many would love to see the "love couple" of Michelle and Stuart split up, but it might take a double eviction to do this.

Anyway, there are 7 remaining HMs, and only 3 weeks left. Presuming the final day on Friday 6th August has 3 HMs, will the next 2 weeks have 2 double evictions? Surely BB wouldn't have 1 single eviction then a triple?!

Just for your information, here are the voting percentages from last Friday (16th July):

Ahmed	56%	945,535 votes
Victor	28.65%	483,573
Stuart	5.41%	91,264
Nadia	4.79%	80,797
Shell	3.74%	63,154
Dan	1.41%	23,778

Current performance spreads:

Nadia Performance: 40-43
Daniel Performance: 36-39
Michelle Performance: 25-28
Stuart Performance: 24-27
Shell Performance: 14-17
Victor Performance: 11-14
Jason Performance: 5-7

Current trades open:
Jason, short @ 6
Dan, short @ 32

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points
Marco, short @ 7 = 7 points
Nadia, long @ 8 = 22 points

 

[Bluewave]

Jason's eviction fate the last week was all but sealed until Shell heard something she didn't like, drank too much champers and went looking for an agrument with Victor! Victor got riled up after being called a c**t and took his frustrations of the situation out on anyone that was in the vicinity.

And the group failed the wedding task meaning no shopping budget this week and few ciggies for Nadia (but BB will probably cave-in again on that matter! ).

Shell is either a very good game player or a paranoid child Pwincess, but her tears cost Victor dearly, and his number of votes overtook Jason's after that wedding night even though Shell and Victor were clearly shown making-up and apologising afterwards.

So last night was the first real eviction shock of this series. On Friday, Davina hinted heavily that the voting was close and that the leader may not be the one everyone was suspecting it to be (i.e. Jason). I took the hint and managed to short Victor at a performance value of 5 (just missed 7!) and lo and behold, the man that has entertained so much was evicted! I can only see BB becoming more boring from this point.

But this leaves me in an awkward situation, as Jason's performance price is now 7-9 which means I am losing by 3 points on my short. Oh how I wished I had cashed in early when his price was down at 0-1! The trouble is we're into the placings now (6 HMs left), and so when the next HM leaves the spreadbetting company will pay out for 5, not 0 as before. So even if Jason does leave this week, there is only 1 point of profit in it for me.

There are no more nominations which means all 6 are up for eviction this Friday. Current opinion seems to be that it'll be a 2 horse race between Jason and Michelle. Both have a lot of haters for various reasons and voting could be very close. There seems value in Michelle's current short price of 14 - even if she comes 5th one could make 4 points - and as such I am tempted to close my Jason position for a loss and short Michelle.

The double eviction is looking less likely. Last year there were 4 in the final and it could well happen again this year. However, there has been talk of a Pub Quiz on Weds 4th August, the loser of which would be automatically evicted. This scenario seems unfair on someone like Nadia, not being native to the UK and not used to the type of questions likely to be asked. I am more inclined to believe, therefore, that the winner of the quiz will be able to choose who they want automatically evicted, which us punters need to judge who is going to be good at quizes.

Shell is certainly well read, but her sports/music/TV knowledge could be weak. Dan seems knowledgeable but could be caught out by arts/science questions. If Jason is there for the quiz, I wouldn't underestimate his knowledge either. I think it's safe to say Stuart and especially Michelle will struggle to answer general knowledge questions, but could do OK with current music and TV ones.

Let's presume Shell or Dan win the quiz, and that the rule is the winner is allowed to evict a HM. I would argue that Shell would want Dan (or Jason if he's there) to leave, and Dan would want Shell or Nadia (and again, Jason if he's there).

Dan has openly said he would walk if he reached the final 3 or 4, and his moodiness suggests his negativity and general dislike for the other HMs could drive him to fulfill that promise. According to his flatmates, he is not being himself in the house, so we'll have to see what he says and does this week.

Soon I will be looking to back a couple of winners. Shell and Stuart's price look tempting right now, and although Nadia has a lot of backers, I just don't see people spending money on voting for her on the final day.

Just for your information, here are the voting percentages from last Friday (23rd July):

Victor	47.15%	871,514 votes
Jason	40.57%	749,869
Nadia	7.22%	133,355
Dan	5.06%	93,486

Current performance spreads:

Nadia Performance: 43-46
Daniel Performance: 40-43
Stuart Performance: 31-34
Shell Performance: 20-23
Michelle Performance: 14-17
Jason Performance: 7-9

Current trades open:
Jason, short @ 6
Dan, short @ 32

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points
Marco, short @ 7 = 7 points
Nadia, long @ 8 = 22 points
Victor, short @ 5 = 5 points

 

[Bluewave]

Teflon Jason survived another week and now my short on him is suffering badly. Thankfully I managed to put a short on Michelle being evicted last week @ 9 and she had 67% of the votes.

Here are the voting percentages from last Friday (30th July):

Michelle	67%
Jason	26%
Stuart	2%
Shell	2%
Nadia	2%
Dan	1%

The market was closed after the eviction for 2 days, and when it came back online again, Jason's performance was up at 24-27. Ouch! If only I'd closed the short for a small loss on Friday morning! Well, losses are all part of the game, and I was happy to get this far in the game without suffering any. There seems to be strong support for Jason, as the voting is now for "who to win" rather than "who to evict", and ex-Victor supporters have been backing him. Many would love to see a "Jungle Cat" in the final, even if they would have preferred it to have been Victor instead of Jason!

The bookies have almost closed their books on Nadia winning (*kicks self again for closing Nadia long some weeks back!*), so the battle is for 2nd, 3rd and 4th places.

I think we have to presume Dan isn't going to walk now, even after openly mentioning it over 4 times. So how many of the public actually want him to win? He's got the "pink vote" and quite a few like his dry sense of humour, yet his condescending "know it all" attitude puts many off. I see him coming either 3rd or 4th.

It would seem Shell is on Wednesday's sinking ship, although polls would suggest Stuart could be leaving instead. The trouble with online polls is that very few vote on them, and we can never know for sure if a voter has actually voted. I like Stu and think he has enjoyed the whole BB experience the most. If if won or came second it'd mean a lot to him, and he's definitely come out of his Shell more with Michelle out of the house.

So, let's make some final positions guesses (presuming Nadia's win is now sealed):

Bookie's positions according to odds:
(1) Nadia
(2) Jason
(3) Daniel
(4) Stuart
(5) Shell

My preferred positioning:
(1) Nadia
(2) Stuart
(3) Daniel
(4) Jason
(5) Shell

As I said before, I will have to take the loss on Jason on the chin. It'd be great if he was out on Wednesday as I'd only lose 4 points (10 - 6), but it's more likely he'll be placed 4th or 3rd. Hence why I opened a short on Shell.

Is it worth backing Stuart to 2nd place? Certainly there is value in his current performance price, and little risk if he comes 4th (of course presuming Shell is out next!). He'll attract the teen vote for sure, and quite a few parents who think of him as a little kid, but are there enough voters to propel him to the top 3? I'd have to say probably not.

Maybe the sensible thing would be to find a bookie offering "tricast position" bets, like at SportingOdds.com. The odds of a (1)Nadia, (2) Stuart/Jason (3) Stuart/Daniel final three looked very good and you'd know your risk is limited. For (1)Nadia (2) Stuart (3) Jason or Daniel the odds were 51/1 last time I looked!

Is it worth backing Nadia to win again? At 53-56 you'd think it was a safe bet for an easy 4 points. But consider this: if she comes 2nd after a massive swing to another HM you'd lose (53 - 40) = 13 points. Backing Jason and shorting Dan could be more sensible.

Sorry for such a long update. I will update again after Wednesday eviction.

Current performance spreads:

Nadia Performance: 53-56
Daniel Performance: 36-39
Jason Performance: 26-29
Stuart Performance: 21-24
Shell Performance: 15-18

Current trades open:
Jason, short @ 6
Dan, short @ 32
Shell, short @ 15

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points
Marco, short @ 7 = 7 points
Nadia, long @ 8 = 22 points
Victor, short @ 5 = 5 points
Michelle, short @ 9 = 9 points

 

[Bluewave]

I know it's best to try and stay unemotional while trading, but it's harder to do with Big Brother than with some stockmarket company! I had been wanting Stuart to at least get to the final 3 but his support just never materialized in the end, and thus he was evicted last night instead of the more likely Shell. He found the whole experience amazing, and would of made a fantastic winner if he hadn't spent so much time with Michelle in the previous weeks.

And so my trading position gets worse and worse! I have closed the Dan short for a small point loss - he could well come in second and the potential profit for me of coming in 3rd was too small compared to the loss if he came second!

I am on damage limitation alert with my Jason short! It looks like he has enough momentum to reach second place, and people want to see a Hareem vs Jungle Cats finale (even though Nadia has all but won already!). His price is hovering just under the 40 point mark (2nd place) and so I don't have much more to lose if he does come second, but I could save more from the loss if his voting slips and he comes 3rd. A smaller loss is better than a larger one

Voting leaks have suggested that Nadia is so far out in front now that she won't be passed. 53%+ of the votes have gone her way... that is an awesome number for either Dan or Jason's fans to try to beat. As much as it'd be fun to see Nadia beaten (the bookies could retire if she comes 2nd!) a Jason win would cost me dearly. Mind you, BB5 has had 4 eviction shocks so far.......

In hindsight my Shell short was (a) badly timed (b) not value, considering Stuart had the higher performance price but equally not that many supporters. A case of trusting my heart and not my head! :| Davina hinted the voting was close last night, and as Stuart received only 7% of the votes, I'd hope Shell got only 7.5 or 8% and will be out in 4th place. I'll sit and wait and take the loss of 5 points if she's the first to go tomorrow.

My "nightmare scenario" would be Jason 2nd, Shell 3rd and Dan 4th i.e. 2 large losses and a short closed too early.

My main mistakes this year have been closing the Nadia long too early, not closing the Jason short when I went short on Victor, and allowing capital to be tied up in Dan on the hope that he'd fulfill his promise to walk. BB trading is always going to be a difficult game to get 100% right because producers can change the rules and editing to suit their purposes and for ratings, and often quick trades can't be made due to the spread trading company closing their books on any rumours!

Next year, if there is a BB6, I may look into using the Betting Exchanges instead which are open almost 24 hours.

I hope those that were following this thread and trading also managed to make some tidy profits, or have at least enjoyed the read and the show. Goodbye until Friday night when I'll tie up the loose ends after the final.

Current performance spreads:

Nadia Performance: 57-59
Jason Performance: 34-37
Daniel Performance: 32-35
Shell Performance: 22-24

Current trades open:
Jason, short @ 6
Shell, short @ 15

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points
Marco, short @ 7 = 7 points
Nadia, long @ 8 = 22 points
Victor, short @ 5 = 5 points
Michelle, short @ 9 = 9 points
Dan, short @ 32 = -3 points

 

[Bluewave]

Well done to Nadia for winning Big Brother 5! She attracted a massive 3,863,696 votes, or 61%!

The final positions of the remaining HMs was as most thought it would be, especially the bookies. Shell left in 4th place with only 5.5% and I took a 5 point loss. Next out was the man who said he'd walk but never did, Dan, in 3rd place and with 11%. I'd have made only 2 points if I hadn't closed his short early yesterday, so am not too upset about that.

Jason's supporters, and many Jungle Cat fans, had been voting heavily but the landslide had already occurred many days ago it would seem. He was evicted a creditable 2nd with 21% of the votes.

The voting between just Nadia and Jason was telling however, as she won 74% of the votes! A huge majority!

"Vote to win" votes cast since Friday 23rd July:

Nadia	60.7%	3,863,696
Jason	21.0%	1,335,246
Dan	10.8%	685,995
Shell	5.5%	347,051
Stuart	2.0%	134,337
TOTAL:		6,366,325 votes

I cheekily grabbed a few points this afternoon to soften my expected loss on the short of Jason. I went short on him again at 42, and went long on Nadia at 57. The 5 points thus gained after the final results were not much, but I'd bet a substantial amount per point

So, after 10 weeks my total points gained was 28. I was hoping for at least 50 but that 1st short on Jason cost me dearly, as did closing the long on Nadia way too early. One has to live and learn I suppose. The show this year was entertaining between the more cringe-worthy parts, and overall I am happy to have come away with a profit. :cheesy:

Now, will there be a Big Brother 6 :?:

Final Positions:

Nadia Performance: 60 (1st)
Jason Performance: 40 (2nd)
Daniel Performance: 30 (3rd)
Shell Performance: 20 (4th)
Stuart Performance: 10 (5th)
Michelle Performance: 5 (6th)
All others = 0

Trades closed:
Emma, short @ 22 = 22 points
Marco, short @ 7 = 7 points
Nadia, long @ 8 = 22 points
Victor, short @ 5 = 5 points
Michelle, short @ 9 = 9 points
Dan, short @ 32 = -3 points
Shell, short @ 15 = -5 points
Jason, short @ 6 = -34 points
Nadia, long @ 57 = 3 points
Jason, short @ 42 = 2 points

TOTAL Points = 28 points