Hi Pat,
Sticking up for the underdog - good man! Thanks to you, radha55's second leg is still the right side of the spam threshold! Just. (Perhaps he'll give you a discount!) Even so, I think the points in mine and dealer911 posts are still valid. My maths isn't great, but this is what I've calculated based on this one trade (pretty meaningless, I know, but . . .)
Long
Target: 18
Stop Loss: 34
Profit : Loss ratio: 1 : 1.8
Short
Target: 18
Stop Loss: 54
Profit : Loss ratio: 1 : 3
The average Profit : Loss ratio over the two possible outcomes is: 1 : 2.4 (rounded up to 2.5 for comm's and slippage!)
So, if the losing trades lose 2.5 times more than the winning trades gain, by my calculation, the strategy will need a Win : Loss ratio of 2.6 : 1 just to break even. That's equal to 72% winners. To make money consistently over time, the system will need a strike rate of 80% or better. Granted, it's been 100% successful so far, but that's unsustainable and, as I suggested in an earlier post, there's a nasty whiff of Spanish style stops in the air which makes me queasy. Fair play to you though for being devil's advocate and, as a consequence, I'll keep my mind open a little longer than I would have otherwise!
Tim.