Beartops Journal

[Beartop]

I have mostly finished testing the program I have been developing for Indices.
I had planned to utilise it to generate R&D capital. The idea being to seed R&D with trading profits.
The attached JPG is a carry over from a fibonacci blog I contributed to.

 

[Beartop]

After rechecking my data from the 6/03/07(The previous entry) I noticed a backward momentum on the Heng Seng.
Today 8/03/07 After checking data from Yahoo have interesting Forward and Backwards momentum.Also a Fibonacci slightly under the close price.
19165. Closed at 19175.
I haven't had a conflicting momentum before so will be interesting to see if the next trading day is sideways. 9/03/07
Data range 19228 -> 18843 ~12% adjusted Fib
Whether you could make money on this is debatable although it is a volatile market, prefer to watch

 

[Beartop]

Heng-Seng

More on the Heng Seng. On the 6/03/07 I have a Dark Cloud Cover followed on the 8/03/07 by a Bullish Harami.Both Momentum switchs are still on. Adjusted Fibonacci silght rise. If I was playing Baccarat I would say that the next trading day will finish on a white bull. I would take the Fibonacci profit. Qualified with a good stop loss.

 

[Beartop]

S&p 500

The S&P 500 interests me due to the presence of a Engulfing Bull on the 5/03/07 followed by another on the 7/03/07 With a forward momentum switch on the 05/03/07 I liked its Bull nature to the Adjusted Fibonacci(Extremely close Stop Loss) on the beginning of trading 12/03/07.
End of trading 12/03/07 The Fibonacci has risen slightly 1414 .
I would take the Fibonacci with close Stop Loss if I had to trade.

 

[pssonice]

u rnt posting inside a journal. first u ve to declare a journal as open !

"This journal will detail my thoughts of trends in whatever market I'm interested in."

your poste appears in a simple thread

 

[barjon]

"This journal will detail my thoughts of trends in whatever market I'm interested in."

your poste appears in a simple thread

yes, pssonice - it's on a journal board which can be used as an alternative to journals.

jon

 

[Beartop]

Lessons to Learn

Yes , I got the last Trade wrong.
Lesson Learn't
In the absence of near switchs,Momentum and Candle don't force the trade.
Only trade within two days of a switch.

I have as yet to determine the full implications of the Green/Red Momentums.When forward or backward

I maybe wrong on this but there is nothing contrary as yet to suggest otherwise

 

[Beartop]

Backward Momentum 9/03/07 - 12/03/07

The Attachment is the Backward Momentum indicators for the 9/3/07 & 12/3/07 . I choose to ignore this although the Fibonacci was down from the previous trading sessions Backward.
I coded the green indicators to be positive signals > than the Red . However as this program is a Dynamic system I haven't done enough testing to determine the validity of green indicators in a Backward momentum. And red in a Forward.
The mistake prehaps is in ignoring the strength of the backward (Green)with the change in Fibonacci.
I designed this model to be effective in choppy markets so far it has been good at switchs for Green. Previously I could detect Red movement from the size of the momentum , I have disabled this in the indicators and am yet to decide what to put in its place.

 

[Beartop]

S&P 500 13/03/07

Yahoo Data 13/03/07 S&P 500
The backward momentum is still green (Positive).(It looks yellow but I transfered it via a printer low on green)
The switch on the forward momentum is no longer evident.
Interestingly the Fibonacci's have come together
I would put all my chips on the next Forward Momentum switch finishing on a white bull.
In line with my new rules , I would look to other trading oppurtunites until then

 

[Beartop]

Forward Momentum pic 14/03/07

Yahoo Data 14/03/07 S&P 500
The Backward momentum is relatively unchanged but with a rise in the Fibonacci.
The Forward momentum has defaulted (Attachment) to switch point on the 5/03/07.
I would interpret this as a wave , with start point on the 13/03/07. 3 - >
To max out the trade , I'd look out for a Fibonacci drop similar to that which occured on the 12/03/07

 

[Beartop]

Trade to avoid Sept/10/2002

Sept-10-2002
A Max out trade to avoid. Adjusted Fibonacci Down

 

[Beartop]

HengSeng 13->20 April 2007

I started to get a switch on the 10 April and on a similar position prior on the wave.
This interests me as the Fibonacci 's are way down and hard to determine.
So the advancing switchs of the wave indicated to me that today would be a good switch to trade on.
I may have missed this one as the 19/04/2007 switch has changed.
Very interesting

The switchs prior to the 17/04/07 were different to the 17/04/07 switch. The latter advancing to the Large white bull. It would seem that the Wave cycle has cleared however the backward momentum on the 20/04/07 has similar to <17/04/07.
Would like to max out this one out as the switch advance change was green to red.
and a possible elegant stratergy exists to exploit .

 

[Beartop]

HengSeng 21 - 24 / 05 /07

Of interest to me is the HengSeng. the Fibanacci(adjusted) has balanced and there is some indication of a prior wave. The fibonacci rise is insignificant until the end of todays trading

 

[Beartop]

Standard and Poors 24/05/07

The S&P is trending nicely with the adjusted Fibonacci adjusting to the trend. Although I'ii wait until the weekend to decide the level

 

[Beartop]

Nikkei 24/05/07

The Nikkei I find interesting but hard to derive the movement of the Fibonacci(adjusted) There is some evidence of geometric ratio that I plan to punt on

 

[Beartop]

Ftse

My favourite at the moment is the FTSE

 

[Beartop]

Nikkei 250507

I would have a go at an upward movement ,but I doubt it will open at it's close so would wait for the start of the next trading session to see the open price.

 

[Beartop]

HengSeng 25 May Cross Over EMA

Interesting the cross over of the EMA

 

[Beartop]

Ftse,s&p,sse

Fibonacci movements on the FTSE AND S&P are trending quite nicely. The relative placement seems to be more harmonious once a balance is reached.

 

[Beartop]

Nikkei

The Nikkei did much what I thought it would. Of particular interest is the prior wave that had occured around the 15/05/07,16/05/07. A very neat stratergy was apparent that I'II
exploit in the future

Note#
The Open/Close price on the 290507 wasn't a level I'd have traded at.
I sometimes use the Price selectors to judge the level of the fibonacci