Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

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fibo_trader said:
Sam, I am going to close out the Short orders on SPY. I've lost interest. I'm not going to bother with shorting the US market. And if the bull market continues, I'm not going to bother going Long either. I'm done. So if the market crashes and depresses I will not be able to say I was SHORT. The CALL will stand but there will be no skin in the game. That's my WORD of Life.

Its only EURUSD from now on - nothing else.

Posting is also going to drop off a cliff, Sam. The End Phenomena is too compelling to ignore. :)

Its been an absolute pleasure to help you out in any way I could. that you benefited is thrilling to me, could not ask for more.

Stick with it, Sam - there is no better road than TRADING, the 2nd place contender is not even in the ballpark.
Click to expand...

Amazing - nice work Fibo, you have shown me the light and I have benefited from it.

Do not fear - the drive is continuing, unabated.

If you’re ever in London , drop me a message as beers on me!
 
must commend you Fibo, this thread could well become a gold mine of tips for elliott enthusiasts
I'm sure you probably already know that the idea of using the macd for wave counts is used in esignal's Advanced GET "proprietary" elliott wave add on
using the macd (or very similar) to see where 3 was beginning, and also 5
wave 4 would often come back to the (macd) zero line, or just below it, and a cross of the signal line resuming wave 5.
 
ssam said:
Amazing - nice work Fibo, you have shown me the light and I have benefited from it.

Do not fear - the drive is continuing, unabated.

If you’re ever in London , drop me a message as beers on me!
Click to expand...


Beer? Of course. :) But what if malagutti brings a lynch mob? :)
 
malaguti said:
must commend you Fibo, this thread could well become a gold mine of tips for elliott enthusiasts
I'm sure you probably already know that the idea of using the macd for wave counts is used in esignal's Advanced GET "proprietary" elliott wave add on
using the macd (or very similar) to see where 3 was beginning, and also 5
wave 4 would often come back to the (macd) zero line, or just below it, and a cross of the signal line resuming wave 5.
Click to expand...


Thanks.

Didn't and don't know about eSignal's Advanced Get. Only heard of it. The Macd idea came to me because of ocean waves. The RSI also shows waves but the jaggedy edges threw me off at first. But nothing comes close to the Macd. And yes, the 4th wave at, near or below the 0-line is what I look for. Macd also shows nice divergence in the 5th wave w.r.t. wave 3.

There is also a new software by a company in partnership with EWI for elliottwaves. No interest on my part.

Then there is also Instagram, Pinterest, Linkedin, Facebook, Twitter, etc., - don't use any. Meant only for green-eyed pussycats with caca bums.

Rampant cellphone disease is killing 'em all off at lightning speed - everywhere I go, all I see is folk staring into their phones jackin off with their thumbs - oblivious of their surroundings. This D I S E A S E is contagious. Epidemic in Primary Wave 3 still in its infancy. What aspect of Life takes the biggest hit from this stupidity? Real communication. Full on eye contact, in a decade will be non-existent.
 
TRADING posts and charts and discussions have been concluded as already mentioned. Done, done, done.

Trading only the EurUsd from here on out as mentioned. Nothing else. No SPY, no Crude, no Gold, no futures, no nothing. Shocking that I've lost interest in shorting SPY - heck evenif I win, I might never get paid, that's how ferocious this BEAR is going to be. Chaos at Exchanges and whatnot, including confiscation of bank and brokerage accounts. I want no part of this.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thread now reverts to Thread Title .... BEAR Market. Still the CALL, always was, remains so, no change. Want to see it thru' - this is a macro view. NO SKIN IN THE BEAR MARKET GAME is my operating procedure - getting to safety is the #1 priority for funds in banks accounts etc., CRIME RATE skyrocketing soon to come + WAR + all other negative aspects of a BEAR market of such magnitude will be place here.

Then at the END of the BEAR 2022 - 24 I will time the precise bottom.
 
fibo_trader said:
Las Vegas play for contrarians:

I'm going LONG Deutsche Bank when/if > 7.77 Not for the feeble. Can you find even one cat who is positive Deutsche Bank? Extinct. I'm going where the water tastes like wine.

Expected rapid return on investment is 500% on rocket move north to 200-day ema @ 9.66, then to possible 17.7 (200-wk ema) OR 200-monthly @ 43.7


Analysis or in this case, Anal-ysis :) shown below on Daily chart.

Green line is the 200-day ema, blue is weekly trendline, red is monthly and white is Daily trendline. Play is based on breakout above the Daily trendline.

REASON for the Vegas trip? ...................... see the numeral 4? That sideways move a-b-c-d-e is a 4th wave. Now dig this. Fourth waves are "penultimate" ....... therefore the current wave down on daily is the final or terminal wave for this particular sequence, i.e. its a wave 5.


Its a whole lotta fun to stay at the YMCA when one is broke but one gots to try to move to the Ritz


View attachment 263021
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Deutsche Bank:

the contrarian of contrarian plays in HISTORY? Is it possible? It can bring the whole Universe down, so its up there with Lehman, only bigger, much bigger?

So now they are coming out with tons and tons of bearish news, 18k layoffs and whatnot. They are saying bankruptcy is inevitable. Fundamental Analysis clearly points to this - that Deutsche is dead, finito.

But is it? Is this a contrarian play? If it is, it is the absolute cherry. so let's have a good look at her.

First, let's have a look at the dire news from the Economist et al


 
265239







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Listen up amigos .......................... what if the entire drop shown in Deutsche Bank is just a WAVE A in an ongoing BEAR market that is always a 3-legger? If this is the case then we should be having a massive rally in WAVE B just about now, which will take Deutsche to dizzying heights in recovery. Then and only then will Wave C down begin and only then totally cripple and bankrupt Deutsche Bank.

The backdrop right now is what? Not a single soul loves Deutsche. Nobody, nada, niemand. She is alone. Aha! This is the kind of sh*t Fibo digs - being ALONE on the other side of the vast HERD. totally alone. So here's my take and TEST of Deutsche purely based on PRICE. See next




265240
 
See my chart below - same as already posted a few times but the higher degree wave 4 is shown now in a larger font. So here's the thing. Fibo knows that a 4th wave is a penultimate wave, which means the next leg down is the final down leg, then the reversal begins. Now behold the beauty of the magnificent DEUTSCHE - she not only showed Fibo the higher degree 4th wave, but she went a step further and showed a clear internal lower degree 4th wave as shown. That's why I'm thought-ing that the 5th wave is over = Wave A down is complete and DEUTSCHE has begun a Wave B.

But Fibo gots to have Insurance against such a s brazen tactic going wrong - and he sure does ..................

See the rally up from the low of 6.61? OK, if that rally does not crash the low of 6.61 and gives me huge divergence when it approaches to test the low of 6.61, then I will be tempted to call that a wave 2 down with the rally from the low of 6.61 as a Wave 1 up to start the new aborning trend.

This is crucial because the next wave up is a 3rd wave. this is the kind of wave that will tear all the experts a new one and then some. Fibo will chuckle if it hapeens like this.

So we wait for further developments NOT in Fundamental Analysis and other Anal-ysis but we only wait for PRICE, nobody else. Presidents don't mean a rat's ass to Fibo. Only Price will tell me.

:):):):)





265241
 
In 2020-24 at the bottom of the BEAR market how will we know that the BEAR is over - something outside Technical Analysis to corroborate Price?

On a Sunday if you see an investment banker ironing 5 white shirts, we have a bottom in the BEAR market. Load up on stocks and don't trade. Hold just like Warren buffet for 70 years - that's how long the next BULL will be. Give the shares to your family to pass down to generations. Fibo will nail the next trillion dollar bagger at the BEAR LOW.
 
Dow Jones daily .................. yawn! the exact same chart that was shown before a couple times or more is here again. The exact same yardstick, the Fibo projection shown for a precise hit on the December 2018 lows (remember that sudden reversal? yeah baby it was the golden ratio 161.8%) ............................ what do we have now? Dow Jones is at Fibo's 423.6%. In this particular rally the 161.8% and 261.8% did not fire, so we should get a fire at 423.6%. If not, then I will have to see what I am doing wrong? An occupational hazard!



265242
 
Re: Thread CALL


Fibo's Top Call Line shown once again for perspective. Still in effect. Dow has gone nowhere for 1.5 years. Some or many would say, "you should have stayed IN, Fibo!"

Stay in and lose the benefit of the time value of money for 1.5 years? I don't think so - although not known at the time of called top in early 2018. But we can use the benefit of hindsight now to see the utter loss in value by holding on for 1.5 years of sheer torture.

So what was it exactly that would cause Fibo to call a Top and exit when not a single trendline was busted?

Why of course its the Golden Ratio with her perfect hit at 423.6% - as shown in olive grid from the 2015 low. And note that the exact identical grid from the 2009 low also had a perfect hit at the 2015 top - as shown.

THAT's WHY FIBO CALLED THE TOP. A Man gots to know his limitations. This Man will not argue with Nature's Law




265283
 
Bernard Baruch:

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible

When good news about the market hits the front page of the New York times, SELL.

I never lost money by turning a profit
 
If Deutsche Bank is forming a triangle on the daily, that is indeed good news for me esp. if after formation, DB takes out the July 5th top. Why? Because that would make the structure of the Wave 1 up an impulse or motive wave. Then we wait for confirmation on the correction in the form of a 3-wave structure. Then we got something. Otherwise, we got nothin
 
Boeing:

They should have listened to Fibo and took-ed their profits and RUN RUN RUN.

Now look at how the monthly is telegraphing weakness - macd is not respecting the rally, neither is the RSI. And the rise is looking more and more like a Wave 2 up, which means wave 3 down is the next logical move - if correct, Boeing will be torn a new one. When/if that occurs nobody will question fibo's call - again.


265284
 
Divergences while SPX makes new highs

half the NYSE stocks are trading below their 300-day moving average

52 week highs % declining

Small and Midcaps are lagging bigtime

Dow Transports not confirming

NYSE composite not confirming


Vix triangle suggest big C-wave up. Look at wave "e" at extreme right. It should be an a-b-c and it is - then see the "c" portion wich should be a 5-er - it is almost there. Then note that while SPX has made ever newer highs, Vix low at 8.56 still holds firm, i.e. no lower low.

Hide and watch



265294
 
SPX latest .... xtreme caution alert!


Almost at major trendline resistance . Add to that the Fibo target as mentioned earlier. And the environment? Xtreme optimism, caution thrown to the wind, complacency to the nth. Bright sunny day. Have you ever seen the rain coming down on a sunny day?

Hide and watch


265375






 
XTREME caution Alert for Thread CALL continues ...................

will update SPX, Dow, Nas, NYA, Russel, Nikolai, FTSE, DAX over weekend .. but for now cracks galore in the concrete on the ground are being pointed out NOW .............. but fibo showed thesse coming as early as in 2018


 
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