Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin: was banned so could not update

10,346 is possible but 10, 476 is probable for this rally. Although calling this, remember that Big Joe is not Long for this stretch. Took profits already as shown earlier here or in other Bitty threads. This is IMHO a countertrend rally so Big Joe does not like to stay beyond a 3rd wave becasue after a top it might b difficult to get out and I sure as heck do not like any stress added to such a fun and beautiful and wholesome job. I like my trades fresh and organic.

Dashed horiontal line is my called target and the trednline shown is the guide for immediate evacuation of the LONG and reverse and go short with stop right above the upcoming high wherever that might be.


View attachment 274307

Slam Dunk!


Called in advance as one can easily see. Bitcoin rallied to within 20 points of my call in quote, then broke the trendline as called as the Stoploss line for the Long


updated chart now

 

[fibo_trader]

Staggering successes one after another, Slam dunks galore. Accompished a significant imporovement to my FIBOs but overall will always be a work in progress as Serenity has no End Phenomena

1.618 times improvemnt per year is perfectly in line with my tastes.

 

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin call on Friday, March 6, 2020

next close by decent but not reliable station target = 8282. Not reliable becaue it is not clicking in the mind. Therefore I give it less creedence but its there nevertheless.

 

[fibo_trader]

Significant downside targets for Bitcoin in 2020 & 2021 are ........................ 2934, 1980

 

[fibo_trader]

Remember Fibo's Law: Nothing goes to sh*t in a straight line - it hems and haws, up and down but it will obey the Law of the Universe. But does fibo have the Laws? No! But will get there

 

[fibo_trader]

Significant downside targets for Bitcoin in 2020 & 2021 are ........................ 2934, 1980

3173 takes prority as the next significant Bitcoin downside target for 2020/21 and therefore displaces 2934 & 1980.

 

[fibo_trader]

Bitcoin: what/if ............................. a massive wave 4 triangle is forming that might stretch to years 2022-24?


This is starting to dawn on me as possible due to the wave B type formation in the the middle of the drop from the alltime high.
If correct, then it is very good News for Bitcoin afficionados as the genreral public will fall asleep during the long drawn out suspected sideways grind in a trading range of current width. This traiangle will have the usual a-b-c-d-e formation but when its over and this will be timed immaculately by Fibo, the rocket to the north will bring the fastest monetary gain known to Man. Fibo intends to be there to collect this hefty income that will be paid purely for SKILL

Fibo's Law: actually the Law belongs to the Lords of Technical Analysis from the 1900s - 1950s had a whole lot to say about sideways consolidations. Fibo respects them all. But none of them did measurements on the internal legs of such patterns. Had they done so they would have been astounded by the wave relationships in wavelength.

It is such wavelengths that will guid Fibo into the best point in time to plunk down big hefty cash and take the big swing. It will be a massive swing of epic proportions.

But we are ways off from that point and will continue to make money on the internal legs of the traingle aka trading range bound by converging trendlines.

 

[fibo_trader]

Why is a triangle such a magnificent thing for Fibo? Because it is always the penultimate wave. Always always always!!!!! Is there anything else in markets or Life that is ever guaranteed? Heck NO. But in this one solitary case, it always works. Coiling concept is well known regarding triangles but what is not well known is that from the wave e point of the triangle the minimum distance traversed is 61.8% of wave 1. This means this too is guaranteed profits. Most likely = high odds is that it will go to 100% of Wave 1.

The magic of triangles = Pyramids of Egypt = in 2 yrs. from January 2020 will be a Fibo specialty of utmost expertise.

 

[fibo_trader]

Stellar progress in Currency trading has a new instrument now a permanent part of my arsenal. I have as mentioned a few times already, a stunning record on EurUsd trading. Nothing else has come close to my success with this instrument.

But now there is another. Its GBPUSD. My record/income here is also quite stunning.

Go into T2W search engine and do exactly the following to get the chronological date/time trades and calls on GBP. this will make it a breeeze to follow for continuity.

Go to advanced search, tye in GBPUSD, then typein fibo_trader, then check mark "date" ............... click search

you will get 10 pages of posts on GBP in chronological order .............

Search results for query: GBPUSD

www.trade2win.com

I believe not a single mistake has been made yet. Will there be mistakes in the future? Do birds fly? As surely as nite follows day I will be dropped to my ass sooner or later. But hey! that will solidly indicate that I am knocking at the next higher plateau = kick in the ass and humiliation is what goes with a new plateau

 

[fibo_trader]

GBPUSD:

Slam Dunk! Goddamn, is Fibo one outstanding mother, now with 5 bans under his belt. This call on the upcoming GBP rally if proven correct will result in ban #6, likely a permanent ban.

Read quote regarding the 38.2% Fibo and then the 50% Fibo and the 200-day ema. Then observe the precise, oh soooo precise hit on the 50% Fibo with the long wick on the candle. That long wick is the whisper of GBP to Fibo that the elasticity of the 200-day and then latent power of the 50% Fib are about to fire off a rally.

LONG GBP on Sunday March 1 (tomorrow) STOP play by ear AFTER market open and exercising some judgement = not cast in stone

I was banned so could not update but you should be closed out of the shorts and initiate new Longs.

updated GBP chart .................


View attachment 275331

read quote: and backtrack it to get the chronology

Behold a masterpiece trading and trading Call. Almost 7 aspects of TA went into the thinking for this trade and Call. Sooooooooooooooooo stunning that I myself am shocked and have added this trade to the MEDICINE cabinet for when/if ever I get depressed and down in a trade and ever doubt myself - this type of trade will snap me out of my funk and cripple any internal forces that are combining to destroy me!!!!!

 

[fibo_trader]

GBPUSD:

The call to go Long GBP on March 1st in post #37 had big block green letters so nobody could miss the opportunity

LONG GBP on Sunday March 1 (tomorrow) STOP play by ear AFTER market open and exercising some judgement = not cast in stone

GBPUSD after BREXIT...

Yes, this is all part of the game. Not only is a detailed prediction impossible as we are dealing with the markets, but pointless - when it happens we'll see it and we can deal with it. I don;t know what the market will do but I do know what I will do about it. Johnny Ringo, we all know...

www.trade2win.com

from 1.2725 to 1.3051 is the juice thus far = 4 large green candles aka the 4 horsemen instead of 3, hahahaha

 

[fibo_trader]

Remember Fibo's Law? oh wait, there are many but here's a key one mntioned so many times but now is one of the best times to review it:

At major market turns 99.99999999% are cott with their pants down = unaware of the coming trend change. The turns are both BEAR market bottoms and Bull market tops. The Law does not belong to fibo, it is known by the cognoscenti before Fibo was born - but THEY tott it to me real good.

Law applies to experts, gurus, masters, YOutube marketers, all Forums, especially ALL forums including ET 100%, no exceptions.

The LAW put another way: No crowd or crowd member ever sees any trend change coming. Why? Becasue they extrapolate an existing trend to infinity and the longer the trand runs the more zonked ther are into it.

 

[fibo_trader]

The LAW put another way: No crowd or crowd member ever sees any trend change coming

Examples are many but we look at a couple:

(1) Just before the bottom of the BEAR of 2008, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, Bloomberg, Forums, Goldman Sachs said Younanimously, "No bottom in sight, crash expected to continue indefinitely" ............ CNBC in particular, the top business newtwork of gurus and pundits said this, "The Dow's bearing - 6,000 and under"

Few days, yes just a mere few days later the BEAR printed the bottom and reversed into BULL.


(2) Current February 2020 US marekt top and January 26, 2018 WORLD market top ................... YOUnamimous no top in sight, this market is too strong it will go on forever, Barron's we are only halfway thru' in the bull run, Goldman Sachs: no end of bull in sight, all Forums: this will go on forever, the market is showing no signs of a turn to the downside" Then came the creme de la creme: Analyst Research Institutions had their biggest jump in 10 years to the bullish side in mid January 2020.


Fibo has loads of examples in his archives of 1929 top, 1932 bottom, 1974, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2009, 2015 ............................

 

[fibo_trader]

Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

Thread evaluation:


Bull market Top Call January 26, 2018. What I got right:

World Stock Index
Global Dow Jones (entire world index)
New York Stock Exchange (marginal error)
S&P600
Russell 2000 Index
London FTSE 100
Germany DAX (marginal hair higher)
France CAC40
Euro Stoxx50 (2007 top)
Thailand
China
Japan (marginal error)
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan ( Top from 1990 still stands so is irrelevant to the January 2018 top call per se)
Latin America taken as a whole unit in the Dow Jones Latin America composite
USA Dow Jones Transportation INdex - 2018 top still holds good (this is the Economy, baby)
Vix = greatest on Earth as it measure Fear/Greed/Complacency
Australia (marginal higher top after original 2007 top)




What I got wrong: (terrible, terrible, terrible, this is my country so this at least I gots to get correct - but no, I messed up, stupidity really but a mess up nonetheless) .......... lessons learned. Can it happen again? Do birds fly?

Dow Jones
SPX
Nasdaq




Notes and thoughts on the Call: Right or wrong, the game goes on, gots to keep trying, can come close, fail and whatnot but gotta keep going - next turn will offer more skill levels and so on - its a never ending game - calling the turns on the mighty Dow Jones is no small feat. I'm honored to go up against such might and still be alive.

 

[fibo_trader]

Post #1365 on January 26, 2020 repeated here in all its glory as the very best I can do at this juncture. For improvements I need 6 months

• #1,365

Sunday Jan 26/2020:
Dow Jones
Monthly TF
previous post stated target 29,386. I would now like to present this chart as my completion of Thread Call. Fck it. This is the absolute best I can do at this juncture. For any further improvement I might be looking at 6 months.

So, here in detail is what I have for the Dow Jones Top Call for the thread. Yes of course I was wrong to call the January 26, 2018 Top as THE Top. Terribly sorry! I had compelling reason then and I have compelling reason now. And if this too is wrong, then I just gotta go at it again but I need more improved technique so more time.

The wavecount is compelling for me to call a completion, i.e. the Top. See chart's 5 waves. The wavelenths are

Wave 3 = Wave 1 x 361.8%

Wave 5 = W1 x 161.8%

I also see that Wave 3 is subdivided into 5 internal waves. Now if this does not work out then Wave 5 is extended evern more to 261.8% or 423.6%. But here's the thing: already we are past the most comon relationship between Waves 5 and 1 which is EQUALITY. Which means 100%, i.e. W5 = W1. In this case however it stretched to the next level which is 161.8%
W5 = W1 x 161.8%.

The odds that this might cut the mustard are quite high. But hey, its still odds. Nothing is carved in stone.

I am therefore calling a TOP here .

 

[fibo_trader]

There is one other very compelling target arrived at by a different calculation:

29, 950


The former target in previous post is


29,386


We now wait and see.

my thought-ing methods are many. I have Fibonacci approaches that not only don't exist in books dedicated to the subject, but also its hardly likely anybody will ever go there as the Mathematical background would be lacking but this can be circumvented by getting good at Math. But the main reason nobody will get there is becasue I got a peek for only an ogonblick one day when I saw in a flash that compared to what is out there, I don't know doodly squat! that impelled me.

That the entire Universe and the constellation of stars and planets is highly mathematical based - this feeling is in my blood so I have a head start. I have tasted it. When you get a taste, you know its there, you know its flavor and what it does to the psyche. That is what impels. There is just no denying with the usual what if I was just dreaming? Heck, I'm a dreamer anyway, immature as heck, so who gives a f****?

 

[fibo_trader]

My final top at the best of my efforts was as stated above 29,386. The Dow top was actually 29568

I was only 180 points off.

 

[fibo_trader]

For aficionados who have been listening to the TREND FOLLOWERS like the turtles and Ed Sekota and Jack Schannep and ohters, all stellar cats, my hats off to them for teaching me stuff .................... but the one thing they got exasperated with me about was this, "Joe you gotta stop trying to figure out where the market is going, nobody can know this, its futile and stupid and dumb to even bother with this line of thinking. You just place your money Long or Short and ride to natural extinction or bend in the trend - the trend will end and you will get off the train way after it has ended and will at best

capture only 40% of the move


Big Joe scoffed at 'em and they hated me for it. 40% is such a low standard of expectation, it sucks bigtime. I wanted more, not for greed of money but for finesse and skill and endeavor and TIMING. Foresight, feeling of an impending turn, etc. these are all important things to me, super important worth way more than money.

At this juncture I can already capture upwards of 87% of the move. My aim is to get to 93%, then within another 2 years to get to 96.5%. then I'll review.

But all these trend riders and surfers - Big Joe has already left them in the dust. Like everybody else, they too have banned me for LIFE.

F***** it, I'm destined to die alone anyway

 

[fibo_trader]

My current standing against Robrt Prechter and his entire EWI organization:

Even without counting waves, I can beat all these cats individually and collectively with just a ruler and pencil. Only one exception there remains for me to outright defeat. His name is Jeffrey Kennedy. I should have him in the dust within a year if not already. Learned a lot from him so no disrespect intended. Jeff is the cleanest elliottician I have ever met.

 

[fibo_trader]

Experiment at this alleged, supposed major market top that proves my point about lostness at major Tops .................... go to search engine at any forum on the planet including ET and search for

Key reversal month

for around Feb 2020

Let me know if you find any mentions

Goodluck!