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fibo_trader
sorry forgot the RSI adjusted line. Note also that divergences are showing up. Macd histogram and RSI are not confirming the higher high in Bitcoin. Hence the STOP to protect YOUR work and earnings.
Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET
- Thread starter fibo_trader
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fibo_trader
(This could be a handsome trade. It is definitely not an 80/20 trade, i.e. it is not a trade where stuff lines up in your favor. Its a son of a gun trade because niemand/nobody will be expecting it. If anybody takes it, you must be ready to TP around $1394 by placing real time trendline under price on 15 min. timeframe)
What if Goldie (Spot Gold) fools everybody and makes a sudden dash to close to $1,394 from current $1284.4?
I ask the question becaue the upwave in Gold from August 2018 low is a total screwball, an asinine, hovine, bovine wave. Its soooo screwy it gives me a headache. But would I give any importance to the first rise from Aug 16 to Aug 28 (a 9-day move north, a sort of a mini wave)? I would. Nobody else would. But I would. Why? Because it looks like a tiny 3-waver, the signature of a FUNKY move. If Goldie is telegraphing me that she is starting out with an abc, then the move north is not finished as we still need a wave 5 up.
Hence the suspected aborning dash to $1,400 area ($1,394)
What's a fella to do in the midst of such trickery? I'd say, "go down to basic-basic, dig in there, then start deriving forward" So I placed 2 trendlines. If Goldie breaks north we're on. If south then as usual I'm just a vagrant.
Time will tell.
What if Goldie (Spot Gold) fools everybody and makes a sudden dash to close to $1,394 from current $1284.4?
I ask the question becaue the upwave in Gold from August 2018 low is a total screwball, an asinine, hovine, bovine wave. Its soooo screwy it gives me a headache. But would I give any importance to the first rise from Aug 16 to Aug 28 (a 9-day move north, a sort of a mini wave)? I would. Nobody else would. But I would. Why? Because it looks like a tiny 3-waver, the signature of a FUNKY move. If Goldie is telegraphing me that she is starting out with an abc, then the move north is not finished as we still need a wave 5 up.
Hence the suspected aborning dash to $1,400 area ($1,394)
What's a fella to do in the midst of such trickery? I'd say, "go down to basic-basic, dig in there, then start deriving forward" So I placed 2 trendlines. If Goldie breaks north we're on. If south then as usual I'm just a vagrant.
Time will tell.
new_trader
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Interesting. I see a cup & handle formation on GC weekly and my projection for EOY is roughly the same as yours. I am wondering if the FED cutting rates will be the catalyst.🤔
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fibo_trader
Great!
FED being the catalyst? That's what the stateside gang thinks. For me, I don't care about the FED. Price tells FED what to do and like an obedient servant, he does it. FED kneels before PRICE. Trump is PRICE's butler. Macd is PRICE's barber (Price tells him secrets and stuff)
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fibo_trader
Las Vegas play for contrarians:
I'm going LONG Deutsche Bank when/if > 7.77 Not for the feeble. Can you find even one cat who is positive Deutsche Bank? Extinct. I'm going where the water tastes like wine.
Expected rapid return on investment is 500% on rocket move north to 200-day ema @ 9.66, then to possible 17.7 (200-wk ema) OR 200-monthly @ 43.7
Analysis or in this case, Anal-ysisshown below on Daily chart.
Green line is the 200-day ema, blue is weekly trendline, red is monthly and white is Daily trendline. Play is based on breakout above the Daily trendline.
REASON for the Vegas trip? ...................... see the numeral 4? That sideways move a-b-c-d-e is a 4th wave. Now dig this. Fourth waves are "penultimate" ....... therefore the current wave down on daily is the final or terminal wave for this particular sequence, i.e. its a wave 5.
Its a whole lotta fun to stay at the YMCA when one is broke but one gots to try to move to the Ritz
View attachment 263021
>>>>>>> I'm going LONG Deutsche Bank when/if > 7.77 <<<<<<
I'm going LONG Deutsche Bank when/if > 7.38
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fibo_trader
last week's SPY chart in post #86 ...... repeated here. Thenlook at the action in SPY today. See SPY getting bounced off the very same 38.2% level I named? Wick on candle shows the resistance clearly. Its a perfect hit and repulsion from 38.2%. When we get past this 38.2%, Wave C will continue toward and to 61.8%, where it CAN end or go up to 100% where it will equal Wave C as stated already.
Now see today's (Tuesday) chart thus far into the session
Now see today's (Tuesday) chart thus far into the session
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fibo_trader
the 5th wave above shown as a diagonal triangle or wedge with blow-off thru' lower trendline
possible target = 2.231 ????????
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fibo_trader
Entertainment: A blast from the past
Axiom: Better to lose your own money (nobody else to blame) than a guru lose yours for you
Gurus from the last bullmarket as the mighty bull was reaching the TOP in 2007 and in the months that followed ...... 2 of the top most gurus, one from Goldman Sachs said this ...................
June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: The mortgage debacle “will not affect the economy overall.''
July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."
August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: "I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,"
October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
May 7, 2008 – Paulson: 'The worst is likely to be behind us . . . . ”
May 16th, 2008 – Paulson: "In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning."
July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: On Freddie and Fannie: “They will make it through the storm”, "… in no danger of failing.","…adequately capitalized"
Only two months later both were nationalized.
February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) "is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient."
---------------------------------------------------------------
A "7" + high-skill = straight 10
Axiom: Better to lose your own money (nobody else to blame) than a guru lose yours for you
Gurus from the last bullmarket as the mighty bull was reaching the TOP in 2007 and in the months that followed ...... 2 of the top most gurus, one from Goldman Sachs said this ...................
June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: The mortgage debacle “will not affect the economy overall.''
July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."
August 1st, 2007 – Paulson: "I see the underlying economy as being very healthy,"
October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
May 7, 2008 – Paulson: 'The worst is likely to be behind us . . . . ”
May 16th, 2008 – Paulson: "In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning."
July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: On Freddie and Fannie: “They will make it through the storm”, "… in no danger of failing.","…adequately capitalized"
Only two months later both were nationalized.
February 14th, 2008 – Paulson: (the economy) "is fundamentally strong, diverse and resilient."
---------------------------------------------------------------
A "7" + high-skill = straight 10
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fibo_trader
British Pound (GBP)
Just glanced at a fellow's post elsewhere here at T2W about the shocking state of the GBP. Wish I could help this fellow, its a terrible thing to see one's currency shot to bits. But remember we had our pain too when the dollar was down and down and down for a decade and even the peso was lafffing at it. Take Thailand for example ......... travel there now gets just 32 Baht/dollar. There was a time when it was 56. Shocking. It went all the way down to 29 and was hurting American expats like mad.
The dollar however is in a bull phase and has only completed one wave up against the Baht. The next wave up is a 3rd and will take the dollar up to 45 at least. Things will get a whole lot cheaper for Americans in Thailand (and elsewhere as the $ lambastes them all).
In 2008 crash the best place to be was the Twin Towers ($ & Yen). This time for the coming crash it will be strictly dollar only. And this time champ is expected to deliver a solid pasting to the Yen. I mean Champ will literally have Yen in a choke hold.
So what's the deal with the GBP? Let's look at it upside down, as USD-GBP. Long-term data from the 1920s. The dollar is in a 5th and final upwave on the monthly timeframe. How much longer will this pain continue for Brits? Years. Why? Because after the wave 4 circled, the wave 5 circled must have 5 internal waves. We are only in the early stages of a Wave (3). Usually it is Wave 3 that subdivides so this is what makes it longer time duration.
Sorry amigos, there is not much relief here. Like the poster said, "it really sucks for the GBP" I agree. Terrible. Not a damn thing we can do about it.
Just glanced at a fellow's post elsewhere here at T2W about the shocking state of the GBP. Wish I could help this fellow, its a terrible thing to see one's currency shot to bits. But remember we had our pain too when the dollar was down and down and down for a decade and even the peso was lafffing at it. Take Thailand for example ......... travel there now gets just 32 Baht/dollar. There was a time when it was 56. Shocking. It went all the way down to 29 and was hurting American expats like mad.
The dollar however is in a bull phase and has only completed one wave up against the Baht. The next wave up is a 3rd and will take the dollar up to 45 at least. Things will get a whole lot cheaper for Americans in Thailand (and elsewhere as the $ lambastes them all).
In 2008 crash the best place to be was the Twin Towers ($ & Yen). This time for the coming crash it will be strictly dollar only. And this time champ is expected to deliver a solid pasting to the Yen. I mean Champ will literally have Yen in a choke hold.
So what's the deal with the GBP? Let's look at it upside down, as USD-GBP. Long-term data from the 1920s. The dollar is in a 5th and final upwave on the monthly timeframe. How much longer will this pain continue for Brits? Years. Why? Because after the wave 4 circled, the wave 5 circled must have 5 internal waves. We are only in the early stages of a Wave (3). Usually it is Wave 3 that subdivides so this is what makes it longer time duration.
Sorry amigos, there is not much relief here. Like the poster said, "it really sucks for the GBP" I agree. Terrible. Not a damn thing we can do about it.
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fibo_trader
Dow Jones daily chart HEAD & SHOULDERS formation???? Right shoulder forming now, not perfect proportion but .... The monk said it takes a heck of a lot of juice to slow a heavy locomotive down. He said that such slowing down is manifested as Topping pattern of some sort. The neckline is perfect. Volume must dry up on the RS. What am I smoking?
Minm target for a H&S = neckline to Head project downward. For shorttimers that's the next trade... hahahahaha will it work? It would mean the 200-day FAILS to support Jones.
Dow Jones Head & Shoulder Triggered! Neckline busted, 200-day busted. Can Jones recover? Sure. But if he does then its a failed H&S top which could then be bullish.
London FTSE 100 right smack on the neckline, not broken yet. Unlike the Dow, the FTSE is still in contact with the 200-day so there is always the possibility of elastic bounce. In fact I would like this very much in US markets too because it will give me a better place to go Short. I want to see that C-wave rally before I'm comfortable going short again.
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fibo_trader
From post #6 on page 1: AXP short 116.68
Price now 116.67
GREEN finally. Patience is a virtue in the stock market? It can bore you is more like it. Will it last or will it now go sideways to form a topping pattern? Damn if I know.
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fibo_trader
Updated American Express chart - green now. When the internal 4th wave low is taken out, I will feel a whole lot better about this boring-wait, thus far useless SHORT. I remember how these cats had to be bailed out in 2008. This time will be worse? That is my expectation. But my opinion does NOT count nowhere nohow.
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fibo_trader
American Express Card:
The doll in Thigh_land now has an American Express card in her name entirely. She come-d from a village. Was poor, poor poor.
So I showed her the secret how to handle these Amex clowns like a champ. These dictators say, "don't leave home without it, it has NO limit" but then most find out that there is a limit and they will be knocked on their ass when the purchase price of an item is above what their credit file deems appropriate - and then have to show collateral. How to bypass this and whack 'em real good?
Send in 10k - 25k in advance and let it sit there for 2 months as a credit. Sometimes for 4-6 months. Never mind the earning loss from lack of putting this money to work. Its a game. Then withdraw it as a credit balance refund. The computer auto estimates YOU as good for a 40k-75k purchase. Then boom, you walk into a car dealership and can buy a new car on the card with one shot.
Just a game to allow poor people who are always getting the shaft from outfits like American Express to shine with confidence. She took her other poor friends to Toyota in Northern Thailand and bought a new car on her card and shocked the living daylights out of the other girls, not to mention the female staff that work there who themselves come from poor families. They'd never seen anything like this - they all come from poor villages in central Thigh-Land.
Who enjoyed this game more than anyone? Fibo_trader did. There is nothing that Fibo loves more than to show the POOR how to flog the rich with dramatic ease - thereby boosting their self-confidence and realization that they don't need to take shite from nobody.
The girls are thrilled on a super high and partying. And so it should be.
The doll in Thigh_land now has an American Express card in her name entirely. She come-d from a village. Was poor, poor poor.
So I showed her the secret how to handle these Amex clowns like a champ. These dictators say, "don't leave home without it, it has NO limit" but then most find out that there is a limit and they will be knocked on their ass when the purchase price of an item is above what their credit file deems appropriate - and then have to show collateral. How to bypass this and whack 'em real good?
Send in 10k - 25k in advance and let it sit there for 2 months as a credit. Sometimes for 4-6 months. Never mind the earning loss from lack of putting this money to work. Its a game. Then withdraw it as a credit balance refund. The computer auto estimates YOU as good for a 40k-75k purchase. Then boom, you walk into a car dealership and can buy a new car on the card with one shot.
Just a game to allow poor people who are always getting the shaft from outfits like American Express to shine with confidence. She took her other poor friends to Toyota in Northern Thailand and bought a new car on her card and shocked the living daylights out of the other girls, not to mention the female staff that work there who themselves come from poor families. They'd never seen anything like this - they all come from poor villages in central Thigh-Land.
Who enjoyed this game more than anyone? Fibo_trader did. There is nothing that Fibo loves more than to show the POOR how to flog the rich with dramatic ease - thereby boosting their self-confidence and realization that they don't need to take shite from nobody.
The girls are thrilled on a super high and partying. And so it should be.
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fibo_trader
SPX (S&P500) arrives at the 200-day ema.
AFTER busting the neckline of the Head & Shoulder pattern topping pattern.
Now fibo_trader pulls out all his engineering equations to gauge the COEFFICIENT OF RESTITUTION of the 200-day at this juncture, i.e. in a whole new unit of time. The residing bull/bear force can be derived purely from the Coefficient. Then I compare it to other times the elasticity of the 200 occurred and get a pretty good idea of the strength of BEAR, his height, his weight, his paw strength and mostly his bite force, hahahahahahaha
The 3rd world where God lives, where the heart and generosity reside.
AFTER busting the neckline of the Head & Shoulder pattern topping pattern.
Now fibo_trader pulls out all his engineering equations to gauge the COEFFICIENT OF RESTITUTION of the 200-day at this juncture, i.e. in a whole new unit of time. The residing bull/bear force can be derived purely from the Coefficient. Then I compare it to other times the elasticity of the 200 occurred and get a pretty good idea of the strength of BEAR, his height, his weight, his paw strength and mostly his bite force, hahahahahahaha
The 3rd world where God lives, where the heart and generosity reside.
F
fibo_trader
S&P500 Head & Shoulder top with neckline break.
You don't get above this neckline baby and you're dead, dead, dead. Let's see what you're made of, Maam
You don't get above this neckline baby and you're dead, dead, dead. Let's see what you're made of, Maam
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fibo_trader
New York Stock Exchange Composite Index .................. breaks the 200-day and heads to the 38.2% retracement support level. See the hook on Macd? Yeah dig it.
Took-ed out the March 8 low.
Jive, baby, jive
Took-ed out the March 8 low.
Jive, baby, jive
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fibo_trader
New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYA)
catastrophic STOP should be placed on 1H right above my real time trendline. Then just let the short run. If we get luck it will run forever, if not we get a kick in the ass but the STOP guarantees profits and live to fight another day. What more can a trend surfer ask for?
catastrophic STOP should be placed on 1H right above my real time trendline. Then just let the short run. If we get luck it will run forever, if not we get a kick in the ass but the STOP guarantees profits and live to fight another day. What more can a trend surfer ask for?
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fibo_trader
Dow Jones Transportation Index = proxy for the Economy??
The Baltic Dry Index is the true champion in this regard. Devised by the London based Baltic Exchange. See video below. Yes I have the chart too. Its too scary to show, very depressing
She be diving southbound but has arrived at the 50% station where chicken curry and coconut water will be served. Will she stay or will she go further south to the movie theaters at 61.8%, the magnetic puller. Damn if I know.
The Baltic Dry Index is the true champion in this regard. Devised by the London based Baltic Exchange. See video below. Yes I have the chart too. Its too scary to show, very depressing
She be diving southbound but has arrived at the 50% station where chicken curry and coconut water will be served. Will she stay or will she go further south to the movie theaters at 61.8%, the magnetic puller. Damn if I know.
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fibo_trader
What's bothering me? What is sooooo odd that it stinks? This gives me pause - its a caution to not get too bearish right now.
The VIX is not validating the crashing markets. Its NOT. And that concerns me. So I don't place any big bets right now. Vix should have shot up like a rocket and taken out the top, but it just doodles and goes nowhere. FISHY!
The VIX is not validating the crashing markets. Its NOT. And that concerns me. So I don't place any big bets right now. Vix should have shot up like a rocket and taken out the top, but it just doodles and goes nowhere. FISHY!
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fibo_trader
Hahahahahahaha, finally moving. this cat is another one that's tried my Pay-shunce big time. Boring!
Se what's gotten her all riled up now as she breaks one trendline and coming to the other
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