personally i believe that the stress test is priced in to the level, but truth be told who has a crystal ball. as for the assest protection, it would be assumed that would be a prudent move however the markets can be totally unpredictable. lets see what next week brings.....good luck.
Barclay opportunity?
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personally i believe that the stress test is priced in to the level, but truth be told who has a crystal ball. as for the assest protection, it would be assumed that would be a prudent move however the markets can be totally unpredictable. lets see what next week brings.....good luck.
CHUMP
i think the obvious first statement in response to your question is a balance sheet of a financial instiution is perhaps the hardest valuation to make, as todays assest's are tommorows liabilities and no obvious examples to exposure such as derivatives are shown. Secondly I think its fairly obvious that the market cap of 14,558 (mil) for barclays stands little weight vs 48,882 (mil) in comparison. Net assets at HSBC sit at 100,229 mil vs 47,411 mil for barclays. Besides a balance sheet, we are all aware that stress tests have not stood the test of time, as basel 2 should have created a repayment vechicle just for these types of events however why is barclays having anothing stress test whilst hsbc remains on a capital 1 tier ratio. from a political stance, barclays would have already been nationalised hadnt it been for its largest shareholder who held the government to ransom. In response we hear that barclays is perhaps exposed to major tax bills it has evaded ( that should turn the balance sheet upside down). When its said and done minus HSBC's exposure to us sub prime which it is slowly winding up it remains a strong business model hedged against a much larger market, including many emerging markets. How do you imagine barclays will compete in the UK which remains its main playing field against the new super bank Lloyds TSB who will grow into a major force. The market rises on intent, very rarely just the balance sheet. I guess the next few weeks will reveal all.
Thanks, it's at least nice to see that someone cares to bother at looking at details. Doesn't mean i agree with you though 😉
For example , I attach little significance to comparative sizes of market cap at this point at least in isolation. Relative strengths of capital tier ratios favours HSBC which is no surprise and explains in part why they showed such relative strength throughout this crisis. However ,regarding those stress tests I take the contrary view that it is simply because they have not performed well in the past I now expect them to perform very well indeed..human behaviour my friend ,asrse will be getting has covered as they can possibly be in this area now simply because they have no excuses left to fall back upon and no one involved in this will want to be on the front page in future trying to explain their mistakes.
Re your comment on the UK market I think you will find it is not a like for like comparison. LLoyds et al are the govts poodles and undoubtedly they will get business ,but will it be governed by profitability ? Barclays I think will take any and every opportunity to take profit both in the UK bank lending activity and outside it both geographically and by sector activity which is what there recent acquisitions were meant to promote. I'm sure we will see more of he same.
Tax bill...well I'd love to know the outcome of that..but I don't, what I do know is these matters can take years to deal with ,moreover if I wanted to skip around every stock that might have some potential issue hanging over it then I wouldn't be left with very much to pick from.
We still don't have a straight "basic maths" though do we.LOL...and we're not likely to..with this volatility you can have one week with Barc at £1 and HSBC at £4 so bang there goes the half price quip wouldn't you say...what I am saying is no buggers got a clue right now..if they had we wouldn't be seeing this scale of volatility.
Far as I am concerned this is a traders market until that volatility dissipates ,or if you want to invest think small and nibble at it on any extreme weakness as the picture becomes clearer.
As you see we don't see this exactly the same way nonetheless I appreciate your point of view and your willingess to at least try and get some data that supports your view. Thanks again for the reply.
HI Chump
the more i trade the more i understand how much i dont understand.... I guess my view on the tax is not a question of exposure but the way in which it came about. Do you not think this is a major scandal for barclays. More so a political one than any other.... I dont want to comment too much....but this recession is not a simple case of over spending! If we look at the ftse 100 index there is no reason why the trend should change. considering financials play such a big part i worry for all financials. I would love to take your view and i can see why you think what you say, but i still disagree on the fundemental basics. Regardless of whether lloyds or rbs super banks are profit focused or not, they will saturate the market. The banking model relys principally on the trust of the customer deposits which are then loaned for commercial purposes. Lloyds and rbs dont have to worry about customer deposits to lend, they simply have the backing of the bank of england, so they simply print and lend. It destroys the whole model, so even if barclays works twice as smart and hard it stands no chance. Lloyds was also a proftiable and prudent uk lender, who was well established with a mature client base. Why did it take hbso? i will leave you with that thought, personally i will be shorting barclays...but if you think the ftse 100 will continue past the 3900 range led by financials which i agree is not impossible i wish you good luck.
"ftse 100 will continue past the 3900 range led by financials "..to make money from Barclays it isn't necessary that that happen at all....trading volatility is much much more about position sizing and money allocation than it is about calling a particular direction..now you've learned something else.
Atilla
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On TA level I expect a Barclays to test price @ 1.40-1.50 before testing 2.20-40 regions.
I have purchased Barclays shares into my portfolio and they'll stay there for the foreseeable future. i.e. Next 5-10 years...
Onwards and forwards.
I do think HSBC are also worth a buy but I'm a little unsure as to whether they'll test 3.50-3.80 again or not. Waiting for that opportune moment.
On fundamentals, I think a more important question is whether the growth that gets us out of this depression comes from the established industries of the West or emerging economies of the East.
From my perspectives, rather than valuations of assets and balance sheets - expected earnings and sources of income are likely to be more important determinants of share prices than the less than transparent declared BS accounts.
Finally, I'm not too into accounts but didn't Barclays buy out Lehmans foreign investment assets business??? Opportunities for all imo. Questions is who is around long enough to be bold and strong to take up new business when the time comes.
I reckon on both.
I have purchased Barclays shares into my portfolio and they'll stay there for the foreseeable future. i.e. Next 5-10 years...
Onwards and forwards.
I do think HSBC are also worth a buy but I'm a little unsure as to whether they'll test 3.50-3.80 again or not. Waiting for that opportune moment.
On fundamentals, I think a more important question is whether the growth that gets us out of this depression comes from the established industries of the West or emerging economies of the East.
From my perspectives, rather than valuations of assets and balance sheets - expected earnings and sources of income are likely to be more important determinants of share prices than the less than transparent declared BS accounts.
Finally, I'm not too into accounts but didn't Barclays buy out Lehmans foreign investment assets business??? Opportunities for all imo. Questions is who is around long enough to be bold and strong to take up new business when the time comes.
I reckon on both.
CHUmp
I would be really grateful if you could expand that explanation....i dont think i understand what you mean, and from what you say, you sound fairly clued up so id love to understand your thought process a bit better.
Glad to see you two are getting along well.As for explanations ,what we got was an opinion and now we have two...couldn't care less,for trading volatility Barc is a wet dream at the moment.If you're talking about a lifetime investment you're talking to the wrong man.
Jaydee
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Maybe not if you trust what the FSA says...
BBC - Peston's Picks: Barclays may reject Asset Protection
pelzar....are you serious>? the FSA???!!!
The same FSA who had us sleeping safe at night under the basel 2 methodology.
I dont doubt barclays hunger for commercial business, infact it remains tenancious and consistent in dumping good money into the equity market. I dont dont the backing of its strongest shareholders is real. another very real factor is its enemies....anyway we hit nearly 13% down today, way too volatile, which again backs underline sentiment, i guess lots of chicken littles had a sleepless weekend and sold first thing....rightly so! Can you imagine, on a day where they had no bad news, plus a day before they can make a choice on the insurance scheme you would assume sentiment would be strong or atleast curious, i think neither apply hear..but hey - its still remains a humble (profitable) opnion.
I say basel 3 here we come....
Jaydee
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Hi Chump
where did you re appear from...i missed our little chats....i hope you havent been sitting there following that chart....can i ask you a serious question? do you really believe a chart is going to save barclays, as this is not going to come down to investor confidence, it will come down the treasury taking barclays away from you? :smart:
lol why did you aim that at me??
sorry if it came across that way.....its just we have been having some friendly banter on barclays. hope you didnt take any offense. 🙂