DionysusToast
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My 2¢: Let’s say that you have figured that the market is just about to bottom out and is due for a substantial rise. You have two choices:
1) Wait until the action of the market confirms your opinion and in doing so sacrificing a few points profit as insurance.
2) Enter slightly early with a smaller position than your usual stake allowing you room for error and the ability to averaging in.
This is absolutely not the advice I would give to newbie’s but it looks like you have a bit of a clue. When it comes to trading the ES I am definitely in the 1st choice camp. Naturally this works the same for tops as it does for bottoms. The reason so many lose money in trading is they hate to see the market move away from them and want to 'jump on board'. I now gladly give up 5 points 'profit' if I am sure I can get 1 point out of a move.
Wot he said...
Trying to catch reversals is a skill you don't really need. Sure - learn how they form, learn the sort of areas the market regularly bounces off.
Then catch the retracement once you are sure you've seen the makings of a reversal. It's much easier and reliable than trying to get the exact spot.