Automated Trading - Is there hope?

[andrewdb]

Well, I was doing ok - looking at my record for the last year or so ... until 15/8/13.

Of course irl I got stopped out at 6580, but my model makes no such fine distinction.

I have a suspicion that that the rules are in transition.

Is there hope - yes.

 

[random12345]

Well, I was doing ok - looking at my record for the last year or so ... until 15/8/13.

Of course irl I got stopped out at 6580, but my model makes no such fine distinction.

I have a suspicion that that the rules are in transition.

Is there hope - yes.

What happened?

Not sure how you trade, but August loses some significant speculative volume during the London session in my experience and I always find August a bit of a miserable half profit eek out.

 

[new_trader]

Discretionary trading subscribes to the theory that every moment is unique and unrepeatable (which is true).

I don't know who subscribes to that theory but I certainly don't, quite the opposite in fact. As Jesse Livermore said "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."

You can bank on that.

 

[Liquid validity]

I don't know who subscribes to that theory but I certainly don't, quite the opposite in fact. As Jesse Livermore said "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."

Yes I agree, I mentioned that here, also I said that behaviour takes a long time to change,
that is referring to market cycles:

Automated trading (that works for a reasonable length of time) accepts that
each moment is unique, but there is also a certain common behaviour in markets
that take a long time to change.
Automation aims to profit from this common behaviour, and accepts the
inefficiencies that arise from unique moments that don't conform to that general
behaviour.

By unique I meant price and tick volume are never going to
be the same at a certain point every day.
No two intraday charts ever look exactly the same.
The tape on one day will never be the same as the tape on any other day.
Yes there will be similar characteristics that suggest trend or range.
Exactly the same, no, hence unique.
I'm pretty sure you already knew that though...

 

[new_trader]

Yes I agree, I mentioned that here:


By unique I meant price and tick volume are never going to
be the same at a certain point every day.
No two intraday charts ever look exactly the same.
The tape on one day will never be the same as the tape on any other day.
Yes there will be similar characteristics that suggest trend or range.
Exactly the same, no, hence unique.

Yes, but this why traders who recognize intent have an (the?) edge.

 

[Liquid validity]

Yes, but this why traders who recognize intent have an (the?) edge.

Yes, you are driving at waiting for, and jumping on when you see
a point where those characteristics are present.

 

[numbertea]

Repeatability?!! It's like gravity, it's going to keep pulling to the center of the earth for as long as the earth exists. Auction theory and human nature, they are not going to change for a long time. The only change that could spoil my day is if the SEC completely revamps the market place. Even with that it will only be a hard day of emotion before I adjust my system and it works again. Repeat-ability is the only reason we can trade profitably at all, or do anything else correctly in life for that matter.

Cheers

 

[D70]

Just that I intend to retire from trading after a few more years - I've had enough of sleepless nights. I've had winning streaks of over 30 working days in a row and I STILL can't get more than 4 hours during those times. Even less during others.

The idea that you've just been found out and been lucky for the past x years never goes away on a losing day... the lows of a losing day are much lower than the highs of a winning day, no matter the magnitude of the latter vs the insignificance of the former.

In my mind, anyway.

No one "retires" from trading. They just run out of money.

 

[andrewdb]

What happened?

Not sure how you trade, but August loses some significant speculative volume during the London session in my experience and I always find August a bit of a miserable half profit eek out.

... I think the market is behaving differently, and I went on holiday (which was a good thing).
currently chewing my way through 'the evaluation and optimisation of trading strategies' by r pardo which has some interesting insights but was hoping for more.

There was one comment he made - markets are bullish/ bearish/ cycling/ congested. I think we are currently congested.

If anyone knows of a better place to look, please tell.

 

[CityMasterTrader]

What happened?

Not sure how you trade, but August loses some significant speculative volume during the London session in my experience and I always find August a bit of a miserable half profit eek out.

Yeah. Volumes always drop. For me, it’s right to be suspicious of any move in August/Christmas on light volumes. Tells me that the move is probably ‘false’ to some degree.

Why not use it as an excuse to go and lie on a beach somewhere?

 

[numbertea]

Yeah. Volumes always drop. For me, it’s right to be suspicious of any move in August/Christmas on light volumes. Tells me that the move is probably ‘false’ to some degree.

Why not use it as an excuse to go and lie on a beach somewhere?

Look at a weeks worth of data from the same time for the past couple of years and note the volumes. An average level for the time of year will be discovered and then you can adjust algorithms to account for expected levels. Being able to trade profitably year round is important to me.

I only trade intraday so this might not apply to your system.

Cheers

 

[Pat494]

Does anyone fully trust automated trading ?
An EA I tried didn't have any stop loss at all but did have a profit target. I don't know how it managed that.

Make the trade, put in the sl & tp and walk away, for an ok night of dreams imho.

 

[numbertea]

I trust my automated system as much as I trust myself when I am on the top of my trading game. Automation affords me that convenience. I would never trust another person's system however.

Cheers

 

[Pat494]

I trust my automated system as much as I trust myself when I am on the top of my trading game. Automation affords me that convenience. I would never trust another person's system however.

Cheers

Which system do you use ?

 

[numbertea]

Which system do you use ?

My own. It is the third system, backtesting and real time trading that I have programmed... It is the first one that shows consistent profit. I am using my own market sympathy indicator and automated qualifiers for entry/exit.

Cheers

 

[numbertea]

Oh yeah, it is the culmination of over ten years work... Still I'm excited!

 

[GagarinYeg]

Hello, everyone!
To my humble opinion, autotrading is another option for investing in the Forex market. Even a beginner with no experience can earn money using such a system. Look, all the work is done in automatic mode, and the user only needs to monitor the process and withdraw the earned money. That's very convenient, isn't it? This option is great for those who are trading on Forex in order to earn additional income while having the main its source.

 

[Pat494]

Your post assumes the trader has found a profitable system. I know there is a lot of BS on the web BUT they forget to mention important facts like Draw Down.

Perhaps you have found a viable system ? I have looked at hundreds and not one measures up to a viable system I would trust.

 

[ionone]

good automated robot is possible i've seen such robots, with ultra low DD and high gains, perfect entries but it is hard, and the author says he is not using any indicator...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwCu0C-0r9c&t=2s

 

[Pat494]

good automated robot is possible i've seen such robots, with ultra low DD and high gains, perfect entries but it is hard, and the author says he is not using any indicator...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwCu0C-0r9c&t=2s

One can see it working on U tube and it looks good but there are no contact details ??