Astrazeneca - AZN

[LION63]

Stock and sector set for re rating, no longer seen as defencive. Heading for skid row, high PE ratios no longer justified. The go go days for this sector are confined to history. Drug pipelines are running dry; absence of blockbusters on the horizon; patents under pressure from the generics. The days of price fixing are a distant memory.

No chart(s) can change the outlook for the sector or AstraZeneca, no doubt, traders will make money regardless of where the stock(s) goes but long term investors are set to see a steady erosion of capital. Better value elsewhere.

 

[maxpain]

DRG -US has some more to go on the downside. 10-15p? Then we should get a strong reversal technically - 50% maybe. http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$DRG

 

[LION63]

AstraZeneca still sliding despite the fact that most of the US drug stops managed to hold up in New York last night. The edge of the cliff may well be closer than most think.

 

[maxpain]

As a trader you trade both long & short. AZN-2000-2100 should be close to a bottom. On the way down we get reversals. I also see DRG 270-275 as support area. We will be there soon. I guess we have 2 weeks down from here. Many indexes close to generating sell signals. Middle of Nov could be time to pick up some stocks. Bradley has some turn point some of these days. Up or down is the question. I´m betting down. SPX at 1000 maybe?
BR

 

[LION63]

Unless some good news turns up on the horizon fairly quickly S&P sub 1000 is a distinct possibility. You can already catch a whiff of burnt fingers.

 

[maxpain]

Haven´t seen any volume spike yet - 2000p this week & lower next week & so on. Exciting anyway

 

[LION63]

Results are due out next week any opinions on how good or bad they will be? Will they have anything positive/negative to say? How are the markets likely to react to the results?

 

[Mark Barton]

watch the live chart.you have 3 minutes to react

 

[LION63]

That is the shortest route to the poor house, what happens if the shares do a u turn immediately one has reacted? Do I abandon ship and head in the other direction? Someone once told me that that is the same as gambling.

 

[Dentalfloss]

you need a broker with minimal charges and spread.if it starts going against you then get out.you dont want to tarde in the first half hour,so you can see the trend starting,it should gap down premarket,this is not essential

 

[Dentalfloss]

if there is a u turn on price,the momentum will go to zero and then reverse.a stock of this size and with large daily volume will not reverse that quickly.if u are nervous put up a 1 minute chart or even tick and watch the direction of the 5 moving average.you will have the time/not much,remember stop losses.trade it when youre favourite momentum indecator goes thru the extreme

 

[Dentalfloss]

t is the most common for stocks to go in the direction of the first few ticks after news.remember a tight stop.if it is a hefty news story,the price action carries on for approx 48 hours.dead easy.go out there and screw them

 

[CityTrader]

you need a broker with minimal charges and spread.if it starts going against you then get out.you dont want to tarde in the first half hour,so you can see the trend starting,it should gap down premarket,this is not essential

The brokers dont set the spread - they are determined by supply and demand. ( for SETS stocks anyway)

Perversely, for SEAQ stocks, a broker with a minimal charge will cost you more, as they will just get a telephone jockey to do your dealing, where as a full service broker, is normally capable of improving on the touch. Like I've said many times... You pay peanuts, you get monkey's......

 

[maxpain]

Reshorting AZN?

took a ride on the long side & now expect a drop - the final big one maybe?

 

[maxpain]

Love this one - trading it is like flying with a Japaneese Kamikaze pilot. (options)
shorted it on top Friday. Probably a long ride on Monday and reshorting it in the evening. Looking really lousy at the moment.

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi maxpain

Looking at your longer-term chart, there is a large head and shoulders pattern forming.

If it breaks below 1800 then it could be all over

 

[maxpain]

Yes, it´s the House being completed. Guess it´s a good long play when this is done somtime in the spring. Guess Techs are the stocks to play on the long side if we rally next couple of weeks. 1800 it is!

 

[maxpain]

This is a possibility

adding this USD chart - fits in well with the 1st chart - at the moment AZN is gliding along a support line -

 

[maxpain]

Shorted at "top"? this p.m. Lacking a retest of lower TL -
(chart in USD)

( looking bullish in the US so this could go wrong)

 

[maxpain]

Things change - charts are to be used fresh..
Looked at the Goldman warrants;
G816 Put Am. GBP 20.00 18/03/05 1.000000 68.400 68.900 9.27 0.50 30.29%
G818 Put Am. GBP 20.00 17/06/05 1.000000 110.000 110.500 6.19 0.50 30.93%
G036 Put Am. GBP 22.50 18/03/05 1.000000 193.100 193.600 6.58 0.50 30.05%
G815 Call Am. GBP 22.50 18/03/05 1.000000 63.400 64.000 12.61 0.60 23.44%
G693 Call Am. GBP 23.00 17/12/04 1.000000 1.040 1.540 60.73 0.50 30.05%
G694 Put Am. GBP 23.00 17/12/04 1.000000 177.150 177.650 11.58 0.50 32.03%
G419 Call Am. GBP 25.00 17/12/04 1.000000 0.100 0.500 50.23 0.40 46.34%
G035 Call Am. GBP 25.00 18/03/05 1.000000 15.550 15.900 16.97 0.35 23.97%
G817 Call Am. GBP 25.00 17/06/05 1.000000 42.700 43.200 11.19 0.50 23.11%
G422 Call Am. GBP 27.50 17/12/04 1.000000 0.050 0.550 32.99 0.50 69.96%
G423 Put Am. GBP 27.50 17/12/04 1.000000 627.000 628.000 3.35 1.00 86.97%
G424 Call Am. GBP 30.00 17/12/04 1.000000 0.100 0.500 26.32 0.40 89.18%

This tells me it´s safe for them to rally AZN up to a level just above 2300 killing all shorts - time will evaporate the value of the calls so AZN could very well rally into OEX. The US AZN-options have a "maxpain" above $40 so the down side is limited (the big money is in the $40 put as well as in the London puts). Guess it´s safe for a long play at least for a couple of days. DRG (US) is bullish as well.