argh! Really frustrated! (trading related)

[D.Gilberto]

Hi guys as you can see havnt posted here much before

(Anyone who wants to know bit about me:
Little bit of information about me, im 22 years old, have previous background in finance (offshore investment, life insurance, financial advisor for Lloyds; not that, that`s relevant in trading) starting learning about trading approx year and a half ago and have ever since been profitable with a £5k acc from around 2 months ago.

Platforms I use are IG Index, Capital Spreads and ETX capital.)

If you`ve read that, then your probably thinking wheres this thread going...

Thing is, I believe ive done alot of hard grafting and studying, practising on demo account, back-testing setups, proving that i have a systematic approach to being long term profitable (and thankfully i have) HOWEVER... the problem is i got lucky... I have recently sat back with my acc in + and re-evaluated the longevity of my trading and the probabilities of my current setup working... And it wasnt looking good.

So this brings us up to about a month ago i then decided to develop a sound systematic theory based upon EW, fib maths, fib retracements, daily pivots, trend lines, MA`s, confluence on higher TF`s and AVOIDING news (as 100% TA)

I then backtested on AUDUSD-EURUSD-EURGBP-GBPUSD - FTSE-DAX-DJIA and from the past months i have spent ALOT of time collating all the information to find the system to be very very promising with a very in depth statistical overview piecing everything i`d like to know about the methodology behind it and any weakness`s.

I then demo` it for 2 weeks and was in alot more profit and very confident.

So again your probably still asking where is this going....

I then went live and first couple of day i was down -50 and have therefore lost all confidence despite having back-tested 290 trades (and forward tested 120 (forgot to mention)

I have taken a bit of a roller coaster in emotions and after doing all the studying on learning technical analysis and finding what suits me best i have established for me personally the biggest part of trading is the psychological effects of the losses ruining my trading set-up!

Just wanted to share this with everyone and more importantly getting to the punch line what i`d like is for people to recommend or suggest a program i could use (if there were any ) on helping me correctly and accurately verify each trade through back-testing rather than me looking back and sub-consciously manipulating any trades for the statistic` benefit... and also the practicality of it... either way im not trying to create a trading system... i`ll still manually trade what i see on the set-ups...

Very grateful for those who have read this and open to any suggestions, feedback, constructive criticism.

(anyone who has greater experience than I and would like to know more details about my trading setup i`d be more than happy to share charts with clearly and very simply written information explaining all the theories and areas of confluence confirming targets and stops)

 

[mattboffey]

Hi there

How do you know you got lucky?

 

[D.Gilberto]

Hi Mattboffey,

Because the trades i had entered into before i developed a strategy were very simple and heavily discretionary.

I have felt that reflecting back and looking at the longevity of it i believed that doing the same common mistakes as others have done by believeing out of luck they were going to be the next biggest and richest trader ever was just rediculous and didnt want to fall into that category.

But now with this new strategy i cant deal with the psychology of it... its ruining my system and me being able to make money and being 100% confident in my ability to do so!

Point is i have a system that works....

Im wanting some tips/advice from people or some program to recommend to help me build my confidence in trully back testing it on all major indices and fx markets
Thanks for reply

 

[ledgy]

Why don't you just crack on with your system at much reduced size? Therefore building your confidence and size of trade as you gain more winners.

 

[JRP2891]

Hi Mattboffey,

Because the trades i had entered into before i developed a strategy were very simple and heavily discretionary.

I have felt that reflecting back and looking at the longevity of it i believed that doing the same common mistakes as others have done by believeing out of luck they were going to be the next biggest and richest trader ever was just rediculous and didnt want to fall into that category.

But now with this new strategy i cant deal with the psychology of it... its ruining my system and me being able to make money and being 100% confident in my ability to do so!

Point is i have a system that works....

Im wanting some tips/advice from people or some program to recommend to help me build my confidence in trully back testing it on all major indices and fx markets
Thanks for reply

What's with your spread-betting vendor badge then? Seems at odds with your above posts....

 

[D.Gilberto]

What do you mean JRP2891?

 

[JRP2891]

Well Domgilberto, in case I'm the first to break this to you, sorry but T2W have labelled you as a vendor from a spread betting company. So which are you, a spread betting company/agent of, or a spread better with no affiliation to any companies?

 

[D.Gilberto]

What? I'm confused, what are you talking about? I don't work for a spread betting firm nor am i affiliated with them?

 

[Pazienza]

What? I'm confused, what are you talking about? I don't work for a spread betting firm nor am i affiliated with them?

Your vendor badge says "Spread betting company".

 

[D.Gilberto]

oh lol! Sorry my bad, i honestly don't remember selecting that? And here` you thinking you've unveiled a secret accomplice to a spread betting firm! Get a grip Pazienza, if you havnt got anything constructive to say on these forums then go sniff out your phantom spy's else where... Jesus lol.

 

[JRP2891]

oh lol! Sorry my bad, i honestly don't remember selecting that? And here` you thinking you've unveiled a secret accomplice to a spread betting firm! Get a grip Pazienza, if you havnt got anything constructive to say on these forums then go sniff out your phantom spy's else where... Jesus lol.

You can't blame him if you messed up your profile.

 

[x4x]

I then went live and first couple of day i was down -50 and have therefore lost all confidence despite having back-tested 290 trades (and forward tested 120 (forgot to mention)

Your down -50 what, if it's points you can't let that bother you. Technically trading is easy, it seems like you need to work on your psychology as this is the only bit that makes trading difficult. As someone else suggested scale back your position size and crack on with it.

 

[D.Gilberto]

Yea Ok. But i feel this thread has done me no good. I either haven't explained the help I need or just have not received anything constructive so i guess im little frustrated. Never mind.

 

[morgan_edge]

Get a grip Pazienza, if you havnt got anything constructive to say on these forums then go sniff out your phantom spy's else where... Jesus lol.

eh?
Paz, despite being openly gay, was just trying to help you I think. You said you were confused and he explained that the reason people were asking questions of you was because you had a vendor badge that said ''spreadbetting company''

Besides, he hasn't got anything better to do.

Paz, you wanna meet up with me instead of blackswan?? Im thinking roller-blading in the park.

 

[D.Gilberto]

Thanks x4x!

Didnt have a chance to read your post before i posted that^ Yea i have already done that. The pyschology is so difficult. Some people have recommended putting trades on and not looking at your p&l untill end of week (as my trades are set with pre-defined stops and limits) And that should deal with it... But thats incredibly difficult to do!

 

[morgan_edge]

Maybe you got discouraged too easily by a few days where you were down 50?
If your backtest showed lots of promise, maybe just give it a decent amount ot time, say 2 months, at reduced stakes, and then re-evaluate after that??

 

[x4x]

Thanks x4x!

Didnt have a chance to read your post before i posted that^ Yea i have already done that. The pyschology is so difficult. Some people have recommended putting trades on and not looking at your p&l untill end of week (as my trades are set with pre-defined stops and limits) And that should deal with it... But thats incredibly difficult to do!

Got to be done - as I say, the psychology is what makes trading difficult - otherwise everyone would do it.....

 

[JRP2891]

So this brings us up to about a month ago i then decided to develop a sound systematic theory based upon EW, fib maths, fib retracements, daily pivots, trend lines, MA`s, confluence on higher TF`s and AVOIDING news (as 100% TA)

I then backtested on AUDUSD-EURUSD-EURGBP-GBPUSD - FTSE-DAX-DJIA and from the past months i have spent ALOT of time collating all the information to find the system to be very very promising with a very in depth statistical overview piecing everything i`d like to know about the methodology behind it and any weakness`s.

I then demo` it for 2 weeks and was in alot more profit and very confident.

So again your probably still asking where is this going....

I then went live and first couple of day i was down -50 and have therefore lost all confidence despite having back-tested 290 trades (and forward tested 120 (forgot to mention)

I have taken a bit of a roller coaster in emotions and after doing all the studying on learning technical analysis and finding what suits me best i have established for me personally the biggest part of trading is the psychological effects of the losses ruining my trading set-up!

Just wanted to share this with everyone and more importantly getting to the punch line what i`d like is for people to recommend or suggest a program i could use (if there were any ) on helping me correctly and accurately verify each trade through back-testing rather than me looking back and sub-consciously manipulating any trades for the statistic` benefit... and also the practicality of it... either way im not trying to create a trading system... i`ll still manually trade what i see on the set-ups...

Very grateful for those who have read this and open to any suggestions, feedback, constructive criticism.

(anyone who has greater experience than I and would like to know more details about my trading setup i`d be more than happy to share charts with clearly and very simply written information explaining all the theories and areas of confluence confirming targets and stops)

In answer to your post, you need to do more testing (as you know) in order to have the confidence to keep executing the trades. Reducing your size, as others have said, might help, however you're lacking the required confidence to trade your method at the moment. In my experience you'll need to do a more thorough backtest going back 10 years, and a longer forward test of maybe 6-12 months on small stakes, so you can perfect your execution through the good times and bad, which inevitably show up. Once you've got the execution part down, then you can up your trade size to the level you wish.

The backtest is the tricky part unless you know code. You're probably best trying to learn it yourself, otherwise you'll have to pay handsomely if you want a good programmer, or you'll have to give value some other way.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Maybe market has changed and not currently suiting your strategy. Does your strategy include any signals that tell you when you should sit on your hands?

 

[D.Gilberto]

thanks Scose-no-doubt and JRP2891.

In response to scose-no-doubt yes my system tells me when to avoid, when to get in, at what price to enter before price has reached there, confirmation toward entry prices a very realistic target and where to place stop loss. You kind of moved me onto my next question... am i right in saying no theory can last forever.... I strongly base my trading on EW theory, HOWEVER i ignore noise (and noise being everything else BUT wave 4`s - if you dont know what that means look it up on google - tonnes of info) as its hard to determine what pattern is coming next. Where as when i trade wave 4 there is a strong correlation to the previous wave 2`s in respect of its size of a pullback. I use fib maths and retracement to determine this and together with moving averages of 20-50-100-200 i refine my entry on a bounce off of them in an area of confluence being my entry prices, fib retracements and pivot points if near by. My stop is at wave 1... If price pullsback to hit the stop then i lose but it also tells me the count was wrong. My target is peak/trough of wave 3... so essentially people who dont trade EW they would call this a pullback in a bull or bear market. So therefore allows me to set limits and stops and with nearly 400-500 (lost count - all on excel) i have 69.7% success rate with wins being slightly above my losses....