Mr. Crabs
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Chart makes it obvious to me a price trap is in order, after profits dry up losses will become accumulative until a panic ensues. Smart money exiting quietly in my opinion, I think these prices will hold up for only around 2-6 months. The bear trend will be subtle at first, we are already seeing signs of the transition.
Funky Trader
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Please guys, I'm trying to understand.
What I don't understand is this. If I worked at a major player, had bets that could nett multi-million pound profits (or losses) and knew my position could have an impact on the markets, I would most certainly need to know what makes the market move.
However, the positions we take on are never going to move anything, anywhere, so isn't it wiser to follow what the big guys do and let them move the market, before committing ourselves? Why second guess something that is to all intents and purposes, a chaotic model?
How many people do you know who get it absolutely right? What percentage are they compared to those who try, but get it consistently wrong?
What I don't understand is this. If I worked at a major player, had bets that could nett multi-million pound profits (or losses) and knew my position could have an impact on the markets, I would most certainly need to know what makes the market move.
However, the positions we take on are never going to move anything, anywhere, so isn't it wiser to follow what the big guys do and let them move the market, before committing ourselves? Why second guess something that is to all intents and purposes, a chaotic model?
How many people do you know who get it absolutely right? What percentage are they compared to those who try, but get it consistently wrong?
M
malaguti
wiser to follow the big guys..absolutely. Simple really. Who you gonna call then to tell you ?
Funky Trader
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Well, the chart shows us all what the big guys are doing. Oscillators etc can give us a chance. Second guessing (technical analysis) seems like a much higher risk strategy than just letting (the correctly set) oscillators give me entries and exits, after an event has taken place.
The trend is your friend. Let someone else set it in motion.
The trend is your friend. Let someone else set it in motion.
M
malaguti
definately
Funky Trader
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VIX went wildly divergent at 10:30 ish today, so...maybe.
isatrader
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I noticed that as well. I guess it depends on whether the S&P 500 closes negative for the day and then gets some follow through tomorrow.
brewski1984
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Wouldn't surprise me if it hits over 14000 tomorrow.
Mr. Crabs
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I'm glad you're learning something from me, there is only one way to predict the market and that's by predicting what actions would make the most profits for big money. Because it's common sense that big money is the main driving force in the market.
Follow the money. Keep it simple.
Mr. Crabs
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It actually looks like we're going to break out to new highs.
Big money loves to perform, show and prove confidence before the selling really ramps up.
I wouldn't fight the trend, I was expecting a bit of a S&P contraction this week but I got proven wrong.
Mr. Crabs
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There was a bit of profit taking, looks like that's what accounted for the volatility. I think we will see volatility stay down for the time being, aside from the intra-day trends. If big money is smart they will keep the bulls satisfied, that's exactly what we've seen for a while now. Nothing to signal a reversal in that trend yet.
Funky Trader
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Quote: "there is only one way to predict the market and that's by predicting what actions would make the most profits for big money".
Surely the only way to make big profits... and that's to make safe trades with minimal losses? The BIG players can almost guarantee a small profit, if they lay enough cash on a trade. What's better, to bet £100 pip on a sure thing that makes 10 pips or gamble with £10 pip on something that might do 100 pips if you're right? Trying to consistently predict tops or bottoms is almost impossible?
Surely the only way to make big profits... and that's to make safe trades with minimal losses? The BIG players can almost guarantee a small profit, if they lay enough cash on a trade. What's better, to bet £100 pip on a sure thing that makes 10 pips or gamble with £10 pip on something that might do 100 pips if you're right? Trying to consistently predict tops or bottoms is almost impossible?
barjon
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Well, it's money flow that's for sure and with the big fundies etc duty bound to be 90% (or whatever) invested they've got to keep buying whether they like it or not. Doesn't matter how "big" (it's not their money after all!!) or "smart" they are.
Mr. Crabs
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Tops and bottoms can always be predicted by the biggest money, because they are the deciding factor in the top and bottom.
Mr. Crabs
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The fact that big money can't liquidate their entire positions or load them up in an instant makes the trend predictable. Don't be fooled there is no other factor dictating which directions the market goes outside of what I will dub here "big organized synergistic money".
Funky Trader
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We agree, Crabs. We can also agree that probably everyone posting here is small fries in comparison, so therefore I simply don't understand the logic of trying to second guess the big guns. Unless you can get hold of the self same set of analysis tools they use for any given trade, how on earth can anyone expect to predict with any accuracy? I've seen lots of calls for shorts to be put in place at various levels and most have been burned so far?
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