Dentalfloss
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mornin all
Average hourly earnings is the big number for today
what percentage up or down
Average hourly earnings is the big number for today
what percentage up or down
isn't NFP today?
yes
Dentalfloss
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** U.S.A. - December Payrolls / Unemployment **
- Market expectations for today's Payrolls look to be skewed to the upside of the consensus forecast of 240K headline and 230K Private, in no small part predicated on the modestly better than expected ADP reading and solid ISM Employment indices. However December ADP misses relative to official Payrolls have often been quite large in recent years, with a skew to Payrolls turning out weaker than the ADP (above all in the preliminary estimate), and then there are the usual caveats about revisions. Be that as it may, the December reading would have to be far weaker (sub 150K) than expected for the Q4 monthly average gain to be lower than Q3's +239K. Given that the December NFIB survey of small businesses (which are the key contributor to job creation) saw "Plans to hire" improve 4 points to a net 15% (seasonally adjusted), with the NFIB noting that this was “one of the stronger readings” in the survey's history, the downside risks look to be rather limited, even though the NFIB survey also noted that companies were struggling to find qualified workers. The Household survey is expected to show a further drop in the Unemployment Rate to 5.7% from 5.8%, but both the Underemployment Rate which fell to a cyclical low of 11.4% in November, and the Participation Rate, which at 62.8% is languishing just above its cyclical low of 62.7% will also require attention. In terms of measuring the overall health of the economy the Average Workweek remains key and this is seen unchanged at its cyclical high of 34.6, but for markets fretting about the timing of the first Fed rate hike, Average Hourly Earnings will be perhaps most sensitive, with a more modest 0.2% m/m rise expected after a 0.4% m/m jump in November (though this followed a protracted period of lower than expected readings), which would see the y/y rate edge up to 2.2% from 2.1%, but still short of the July 2011 cyclical high of 2.3%, and per se benign.
from marc ostwald
- Market expectations for today's Payrolls look to be skewed to the upside of the consensus forecast of 240K headline and 230K Private, in no small part predicated on the modestly better than expected ADP reading and solid ISM Employment indices. However December ADP misses relative to official Payrolls have often been quite large in recent years, with a skew to Payrolls turning out weaker than the ADP (above all in the preliminary estimate), and then there are the usual caveats about revisions. Be that as it may, the December reading would have to be far weaker (sub 150K) than expected for the Q4 monthly average gain to be lower than Q3's +239K. Given that the December NFIB survey of small businesses (which are the key contributor to job creation) saw "Plans to hire" improve 4 points to a net 15% (seasonally adjusted), with the NFIB noting that this was “one of the stronger readings” in the survey's history, the downside risks look to be rather limited, even though the NFIB survey also noted that companies were struggling to find qualified workers. The Household survey is expected to show a further drop in the Unemployment Rate to 5.7% from 5.8%, but both the Underemployment Rate which fell to a cyclical low of 11.4% in November, and the Participation Rate, which at 62.8% is languishing just above its cyclical low of 62.7% will also require attention. In terms of measuring the overall health of the economy the Average Workweek remains key and this is seen unchanged at its cyclical high of 34.6, but for markets fretting about the timing of the first Fed rate hike, Average Hourly Earnings will be perhaps most sensitive, with a more modest 0.2% m/m rise expected after a 0.4% m/m jump in November (though this followed a protracted period of lower than expected readings), which would see the y/y rate edge up to 2.2% from 2.1%, but still short of the July 2011 cyclical high of 2.3%, and per se benign.
from marc ostwald
Jessi_trader
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short @ 9806
You can thank me now :clap:
Jessi_trader
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limit 9750
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9760 surely?
Jessi_trader
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adjusted to 9760, yes
Jessi_trader
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Actually it goes bit lower than 9760
Have a look at chat and see the yellow line which is upper boundary of channel I posted yesterday.
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Jessi_trader
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yes around 56 on my chart, but i allow 5 points or so just to make sure limit is reached
