ELECTIONS
You will find it of great value if you will go back over
the years of Presidential elections and study the action of
the market and the formation of it on the chart in the early
part of the year and again just previous to the election and
following it. In most cases you will find that the event,
whether considered good or bad, was discounted beforehand.
There is seldom ever a presidential year but what at
some time there is a scare and severe decline. Public sentiment
gets mixed. They decide the Democrats are going to
win and the market starts in to discount it. However, it
makes no difference whether there is a Democratic president
or a Republican. If stocks have been distributed and are in
the hands of the public, they will go down during a Republican
administration. We have had just as many panics when
a Republican president occupied the White House, as have
occurred when the Democrats were in power. It all depends
upon at what level prices are, and the condition of affairs
throughout the country. This will be plainly registered by
the tape and your chart will show it. If not, wait until you
get a clear indication.
An extreme decline occurred in July and August, 1896,
which was known as the “Silver Panic.” The whole country
got scared and decided that Wm. J. Bryan was going to be
elected and that his silver dream would become a reality.
Investors and traders sold stocks regardless of value and on
August 8th, the average prices of industrial and railroad
stocks reached a level which was the lowest from that day
until the date of this writing.
In 1912, when Wilson was elected for the first time, the
stock market advanced in September and October previous
to the election, because the Republicans were convinced that
the Democrats would not win. Therefore, they did not
create any scare to start the public selling stocks. Of course,
after Wilson was elected, which really was an unexpected
event to investors who believed and feared that the “d-----
Democrats” would ruin the country, they then began to sell
stocks and discount the Democratic administration. The war
followed in 1914 and completed the liquidation and made
it even worse than it would have been. But this decline in
stocks would have taken place even though a Republican had
been in power, for the good and sufficient reason that prices
were high, and that stocks had passed from strong hands
into weak, and the general condition of the country was not
such as to warrant the existing level of values at the time of
the election.
AFTER-ELECTION RALLIES
When any important election, either presidential or
otherwise, takes place, and the market has pretty well discounted
it, but the general public throughout the country
figure that the event is favorable, they, of course, send in
buying orders the next day after election and stocks are
strong until this demand is satisfied. It will always pay you
to wait two or three days after election and see whether the
market continues to move in the same direction after election
as it did before. Stocks were strong the first day after
Wilson was elected the first time, but the decline started
promptly after public buying orders had been filled. Always
be careful of buying on top of after-election rallies. In the
same way, if stocks open off and decline the first two or three
days after election, be careful about selling them, as it may
be only the public selling because they are scared and the
insiders may support the market and start an advance