Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

Dax in supp
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One day it will all come crashing down.
As the week draws to a close, there is a somewhat surreal tone to markets, for whom the inclination to pivot towards 'good news' at every opportunity, but then get tripped up by reality, has been more than amply demonstrated in the past fortnight, be that in respect of the US elections, or more dramatically the Pfizer vaccine test results and the hope of a return to a more normal functioning of the global economy. The facts remain that the issues of who will be in control of the US Senate, and how the spread of the virus evolves between now and whenever the vaccine(s) start to be rolled out in a substantive way, leaving aside how that impacts the spread of the virus are unresolved; the question is then: how long can markets dine out on hope, and ignore what is likely to be a difficult period both in terms of the current spread of the pandemic, and the hobbling impact of lockdown measures. It appears that the latter issues have traction today, above all the continued infection rate surge, however other drivers may also be the usual Friday lightening of positions, the much needed reminder from China that a default wave remains under way (not only in China), more US/China tensions on investments, and a good deal of volatility in value vs. growth stock allocations (see chart of S&P 500 vs. Dow and Nasdaq). In terms of the day's schedule, the data run is unlikely to have a major impact, and features Q3 GDP data from Malaysia, Eurozone (first revision) and various CEE countries, along with US PPI and preliminary Michigan Sentiment, and the Bank of Canada's Q3 Senior Loan Officers survey. Fed, ECB & BoE speakers will again be very plentiful, and G20 officials will meet to discuss more converted debt relief efforts for nations. In the UK, the drama around PM Johnson's 'kitchen cabinet' (of unelected officials) continues, and this can only be described as a very unnecessary distraction from the array of major challenges facing the UK, very much in the vein of 'Nero fiddles while Rome burns'.

From Marc Ostwald
 
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