Even if tomorrow’s non-manufacturing ISM report shows service sector activity slowing and employment gains weakening, the general sentiment in the market is that the rally in stocks signal a more durable recovery that should lead to lower unemployment. While there are a lot of problems with this theory including the possibility of a second wave as schools re-open, sheer optimism is the main reason why investors are buying US stocks and the US dollar. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book was also released today and according to the report, economic gains were modest. Business contacts had mixed expectations for staffing in the months ahead with manufacturers expecting staff increases and the service sector anticipating the need for reductions. While USD/JPY rose for the third straight day, the pair is largely rangebound ahead of NFP as traders await Friday’s release.
from Kathy Lien