In terms of the EU Summit, it remains unclear whether it will reach a final agreement on the Recovery & Resilience Fund, though at a minimum it should make some progress to resolving some of the differences above all on the balance of grants vs loans, and the distribution and conditionalities, above all the thorny and complex issue of whether decisions will have to be unanimous or a qualified majority, the latter will inevitably be seen as precedent setting, and thus be the most contentious issue to resolve. As a rule of thumb, the more headlines of individual countries briefing the media that emerge during today, the less likely it is that an agreement will be reached, and vice versa. As noted yesterday, 'the EU and Eurozone’s modus operandi remains in desperate need of reform, and as many have observed, if this recovery programme is not agreed, the future of both has to be in serious doubt. Just as importantly, time is of the essence, every week and month that passes without this being implemented will make the road to recovery that much longer, and do a lot of damage to most countries, and raises the likely volume of business failures and with that lost jobs.'
From Marc Ostwald