Bank of America equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian said: “The S&P 500 is running on fumes."
EU had a strong session Friday, way outperformed the US by threefold, not much reason for it, I guess euphoria is contagious. The AU ASX also is in euphoria mode having finally broken the pre-GFC levels. If I didn't like the exuberance of markets on Thu I like it even less now. I did predict Jan to be a down month (also March) so I'm wrong so far but will say 2 things... 1. the month is not over yet, 2. fumes do make for good explosions but also indicate an empty tank.
I closed off several EU longs on Friday, if next week can see another +½% or so in the EU then I'll be closing many more, then I'm sitting on my hands as I won't buy at these levels. When the DOW gets below 28k then I'll start looking for buys... sometimes the best strategy is to do nothing when things don't feel right.
The market's exuberance is what does not feel right to me... but this might explain some of it: An 11-year bull run is a long time, long enough to place half the traders in the category that have never experienced a bear market so they are taking on risk without knowing it. Indeed anyone that entered the game after 2008 probably thinks its an easy game... just buy the dip and bank the profits in a few days, add the social media effect to that and you got a snowballing number of young investors that buy every dip without thought nor regard to the cause of the dip. Dangerous times, dangerous levels me thinks.