Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[psaTrading]

The US markets closed with modest gains, which did not prevent the week from coming out with a negative change. The day was marked by the absence of news or tweets regarding the future steps of the Trump Administration concerning its customs policy. As such, investors were focused on the operations related to the maturity of futures and options, called the quadruple witching. In addition to this maturity, investors followed the publication of economic data that pointed to a slowdown in the real estate market (7% decrease in the beginning of home construction), although industrial production and consumer sentiment confirmed the current phase of expansion of economy. Despite all the uncertainty and turbulence of the current economic climate, American savers seem to have returned with enthusiasm to stock markets. In the week ending March 14, American savers subscribed a total of 43,300 M.USD in shareholder funds. The large portion of this amount was channeled to US equity funds (34600 M. €), followed by Japanese stock funds (around 4000 M.USD) and specialized funds in emerging markets (3500 M.USD). The subscription of European stockholder funds was insignificant.

 

[psaTrading]

European stocks may be vulnerable to a reversal of this positive initial trend. One of the standards that has emerged in 2018 is the underperformance of European markets vis-à-vis the Americans. Since the beginning of the year, the Eurostoxx50 lost 3.12% while the S&P500 appreciated 1.47% (and the Nasdaq100 7.32%). As a consequence of this trend and to reinforce it, the position of hedge funds has been in place. According to Reuters, the amount of short sales on European stocks amounts to 188,000 M.USD, one of the highest levels since the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

 

[psaTrading]

After an uncertain start, the indices of the Old Continent began a slight downward trend that lasted until the last hour of trading, when a brief rally led them back to the opening levels. One of the vulnerabilities of European markets today was the banking sector. The epicenter of the weakness of this sector was the Italian banks. On the positive side, the oil sector stood out, reflecting the rise in oil prices. Crude was picking up on rumors that President Trump and Saudi Hereditary Crown Prince were studying a way to counter Iran’s expansion into the Middle East.

 

[psaTrading]

Two of the factors that conditioned the European session, including the specter of a world-wide trade war and the effects of the FED meeting, were also putting pressure on US stocks. Another factor that was causing some nervousness among American markets was the weakness of the so-called FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) that was spreading to the rest of the market.

 

[Dowser]

My latest best guess...

 

[psaTrading]

European markets again ended the session with significant losses. President Trump's decision to impose customs duties on Chinese imports has revived fears about a global trade war. These fears have translated into a strong aversion to risk that has affected not only stocks (especially the more cyclical and the more export oriented) but also oil and industrial commodities. On the other hand, assets refuge such as state bonds, Swiss franc and gold appreciated.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

My latest best guess...

Looks good to me cbrads, maybe not a 50% retrace, as the big boys are controlling the order flow currently; they have the short positions in place, and basically have retail where they want them. Currently has been capped at 24100, so this area may prove to be difficult to overcome. Having said that 24500 is smack bang upside resistance and would be a short from there, but it makes more sense to use this current volatility to drive price down from here.

Looking at S&P as the main market - 2600 looks like a tough zone to crack, but the Dow normally expands a tad out off line with the S&P at the extreme points in the market, hence a quick dive below 23000 should clear out the deadwood, and shake everyone's nerves a little. The market should then work its way back into the range for a few months, then ultimately attack the highs for record prints once again, by year end.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Looks good to me cbrads, maybe not a 50% retrace, as the big boys are controlling the order flow currently; they have the short positions in place, and basically have retail where they want them. Currently has been capped at 24100, so this area may prove to be difficult to overcome. Having said that 24500 is smack bang upside resistance and would be a short from there, but it makes more sense to use this current volatility to drive price down from here.

Looking at S&P as the main market - 2600 looks like a tough zone to crack, but the Dow normally expands a tad out off line with the S&P at the extreme points in the market, hence a quick dive below 23000 should clear out the deadwood, and shake everyone's nerves a little. The market should then work its way back into the range for a few months, then ultimately attack the highs for record prints once again, by year end.

Going by the close - could happen Monday/Tuesday :-0:-0:-0

 

[psaTrading]

Mitigating concerns about a possible trade war favored the US market earlier this week. Microsoft was up about 6 percent after Morgan Stanley raised its target price for the company, noting that the software company's market capitalization reach $ 1 billion with the growing adoption by cloud customers, as well as improved margins.

 

[psaTrading]

The performance of the yields is relevant, since in the last two weeks, together with the specter of a trade war between the US and China, has explained the fragility of the European banking sector.

 

[RachasfromPortugal]

Going by the close - could happen Monday/Tuesday :-0:-0:-0

This chart are a tipicaly price action where no one know what is direction...is wedging and price are in midle...stand a side..

 

[Brumby]

I don't trade the indices but the median lines seem to capture well the recent vibration in price and time on the following :

FTSE

DJI

SP500

Not so much on the Nasdaq

 

[psaTrading]

In European opening, stocks are trading lower, influenced by the reversal of the US market trend in yesterday's session. The technology sector should be the focus of attention, since in Wall Street it was the main reason for the downward behavior of the market. Rise concerns about tighter control in this industry, following the news about Facebook. Other companies to attract attention should be the mining companies, after the negative behavior of the sector in Asian markets.

 

[Dowser]

A change in sentiment?

 

[Brumby]

A change in sentiment?

I think there is a trade opportunity which potentially offers a RR of 2:1 in my view but nevertheless is a counter trend swing trade.

 

[psaTrading]

The recent risk aversion of investors has manifested itself through the purchase of bonds, which has led yields to retreat sharply. This move has led many fund managers to buy utilities and sell bank shares (more related to business cycles and a positive correlation with interest rates. In fact, as of 15 March, DJ Stoxx Utilities has appreciated 2.13% vs. DJ Stoxx Banks' 3.96% decline Now, from a technical point of view, as the yield drop reached extreme levels and with German yields testing the 0.50% support, they increase the likelihood of a recovery in yields. sovereign interest rates, ie a devaluation of State bonds.

 

[psaTrading]

The close of the session on the last business day of the week was positive for European stock exchanges and for most sectors in a week marked by the easing of tensions between the US and its trading partners but also by the selling pressure that plagued the technology sector . The automakers were among the best performers, influenced by the good performance of Renault, fruit of the news of a possible merger with Nissan. The technological companies, which in recent days have been in the spotlight, presented a gain around 0.50%. Also noteworthy for producers of raw materials that recovered from the losses recorded in the session on Wednesday.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

The close of the session on the last business day of the week was positive for European stock exchanges and for most sectors in a week marked by the easing of tensions between the US and its trading partners but also by the selling pressure that plagued the technology sector . The automakers were among the best performers, influenced by the good performance of Renault, fruit of the news of a possible merger with Nissan. The technological companies, which in recent days have been in the spotlight, presented a gain around 0.50%. Also noteworthy for producers of raw materials that recovered from the losses recorded in the session on Wednesday.

The media can and will come up with many ways to justify outcomes and to make sense of what "has happened", however there is never any forthcoming information as to what will likely happen next:whistling

The chart tells us a lot more than the news does, always has always will.

We called it here a week ago. The S&P is the lead market, and 2600 was the level where the powers that be would step in and defend. As long as this remains the case, then its 3000 here we come, then we can get talking about a serious correction that could last a few years. We need this level to be hit first for a multitude if reasons, then its every man/woman/ dog for themselves :clap:

 

[kalott]

SP500 daily and Nasdaq weekly 2000 >

It could go either way from here (as usual)

depends on what the big boys and girls (that moves the market) wants?

in my opinion the charts say down but that could be a reason to ramp it up for those that can:cheesy:

one thing i am sure about is that volatility is here to stay (for a while)

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

SP500 daily and Nasdaq weekly 2000 >

It could go either way from here (as usual)

depends on what the big boys and girls (that moves the market) wants?

in my opinion the charts say down but that could be a reason to ramp it up for those that can:cheesy:

one thing i am sure about is that volatility is here to stay (for a while)

Agree on the volatility for a while!

Nice post.

I see you have made good observations with the interaction periods of NQ in 2000 and S&P currently. Yes they do look similar, in fact, very spooky in consistency!

But the KEY difference is what the S&P did at the pink star in relation to what the NQ did during the same period and at the same rate of movement. (We all need to sh*t ourselves now and again). Big difference no?

The NQ had to wait another 12 months (May (ish) 2001) to create the same environment as the S&P has done already.

I wont put words into anyone's mouth, but ill leave it to readers to figure out what that most likely means.

This is the main issue with patterns, they look the same, but the orderflow within them, can mean totally different scenarios are about to set up.

Can we test downside? Of course we can, but the ability to restrain the falls will show the way.

The mere fact that there is suddenly an influx of traders thinking about this going down, should be a sign that its not ready yet. The volatility will cause the second guessing, so its important to see through the fog that will be present.