One more big market event this week that no one is talking about
This week is also the annual Russell rebalance event. This is the when FTSE Russell reconstitutes all of the Russell indexes to give the best market cap representation for the next year. It occurs on the last Friday of June and is always a day that produces a lot of volume in the markets, as portfolio managers resize and adjust their holdings to match up against the changes.
in years past, this was a bigger event for Wall Street, as the list of adds and deletes to each of the index was withheld until the day of the trade. As a result, there were a lot of bets made on either side, and the day produced a lot of trading to get it right by the end of the day. A few years ago, however, Russell decided to reveal the overall list a few days early, which eliminated all of the blind betting that took place leading into the trade … and much of the fun around that day.
This change in policy has reduced the volatility that comes along with the trade, but we still will experience greater volumes throughout the day on Friday and especially into the closing auction. The point of interest in the year’s “Russell Rebal” is that it hits one day after the Brexit vote. Depending upon the vote on Thursday, it could make the Russell Rebal interesting again … and fun!
Markets continue to trade in a neutral channel and are waiting for a catalyst to break them out. And despite the Dow Industrials (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) getting the attention today with the nice Brexit-stay related move, the Russell 2000 (^RUT) is the index to watch. It is leading, and it’s back to the 1160-1165 territory. It needs to hold this area for all of the market to move back to record levels.