Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

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I still think that 11160 is more strong support than 11190... and think DAX will test that sooner rather than later.....
 
seems long call here... broke channel... will be going long... my last try today...:mad::mad:
 

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Hello everyone,
I am a long time lurker trying to learn from all your experience and trading very infrequently. I have landed myself in a big mess by not following the rules and need your advice. I went short on DAX in January when it was around 10000 but it kept going up and up. I kept selling n selling hoping that the Greece or Ukraine crisis will bring it down but that never happened.
Now I need advice from you experienced people that would DAX go down at all or not.
I am happy to hold my positions and wait but then I stand a risk that DAX goes up to 12000 or should I buy it in the dips to minimise my losses.
Thanks a lot
 
my opinion is that the market will drop if you can ride it out but others will tell you to cut your losses you will be none the wiser at the end i am afraid. buying the dips is fine until it does drop and then you find yourself with a long you dont want. if your new stick to the ftse its more forgiving
 
macgyver said:
Hello everyone,
I am a long time lurker trying to learn from all your experience and trading very infrequently. I have landed myself in a big mess by not following the rules and need your advice. I went short on DAX in January when it was around 10000 but it kept going up and up. I kept selling n selling hoping that the Greece or Ukraine crisis will bring it down but that never happened.
Now I need advice from you experienced people that would DAX go down at all or not.
I am happy to hold my positions and wait but then I stand a risk that DAX goes up to 12000 or should I buy it in the dips to minimise my losses.
Thanks a lot
Click to expand...
I can assure you that you are not alone in the predicament of being on the "wrong" or loosing side of the market. So far you have increased the tuition fee in the academy of using STOP LOSS. Nothing wrong with it in itself, as long as you are learning.
DAX will eventually retrace some good amount but we do not know when.
There are few things one can consider:
- hedge the position so no more losses are incurred (especially if DAX breaks decisively 11250 . Hedge can be a straight forward trade in opposing direction in that same instrument or in a correlated instrument, though one would need to work out the correlation more precisely. This option is for more experienced traders, as one can find himself/herself twice on the "wrong" side of the market.
- put a SL now, having a STOP LOSS late is better that not having it at all
- after establishing a reasonable Stop Loss, if the market does not move in your direction within the first decade of March, close the position and get the hit, transforming the value as tuition fees

There is one thing one needs to be aware of.
Indices are trending up, this is a strong trend and there are very large and strong parties whose interest is directly related to these indices to perform well, that includes many governments and central banks, not forgetting the whole arrangement/s of pension funds, their total dependence on invested capital in the stock market, which in turn is politicised for obvious reasons.
So there are inherent forces which make the indices go north.
There will be pull backs, bear conditions, and eventually crash, to be yet again followed by a bull, and so history repeat itself, with pension funds again being raided and so on...
As to when it happens - I do not know, but I do expect Dax to pull to 10200 if it does not decisively break 11250. I might be wrong.
I wish you the very best, do not rush, but do something.
2be
PS
I am concerned regarding your happiness to hold these positions, I am well aware that different things make people happy, but I do not belong to those who being over 1000 pips down would still retain any degree of happiness.
On a more serious note I would like to quote G.C. Selden taken from his book "Psychology of the Stock Market"

If you already have a position in the market, do not attempt to bolster up your failing faith by resorting to intellectual subtleties in the interpretation of obvious facts. If you are long or short of the market, you are not an unprejudiced judge, and you will be greatly tempted to put such an interpretation upon current events as will coincide with your preconceived opinion. It is hardly too much to say that this is the greatest obstacle to success. The least you can do is to avoid inverted reasoning in support of your own position. page 28

I know it is absolutely so. why??? have been there myself and at least I know one more thing to avoid.
 
Last edited:
macgyver said:
Hello everyone,
I am a long time lurker trying to learn from all your experience and trading very infrequently. I have landed myself in a big mess by not following the rules and need your advice. I went short on DAX in January when it was around 10000 but it kept going up and up. I kept selling n selling hoping that the Greece or Ukraine crisis will bring it down but that never happened.
Now I need advice from you experienced people that would DAX go down at all or not.
I am happy to hold my positions and wait but then I stand a risk that DAX goes up to 12000 or should I buy it in the dips to minimise my losses.
Thanks a lot
Click to expand...

I can understand the pain, dilemma, uncertainty, hope and grief.

Whatever the market forecast will be, will be based on current conditions in ever changing market.

Consider the following:

1. You closed you positions in loss tomorrow and from Friday DAX started falling down and in next few weeks it came to 9000.
2. You did not close your positions and DAX keep going up until she dries your pocket down.
3.You close your positions and DAX keep railing and in next couple of weeks, reached 12000.

From technical analysis point of view, I see DAX going to 11600, before any significant correction can takes place, and I don't see anything stopping DAX now.

There is a significant date , which is from March 16th to March 20th, a major market move can happen. Specially 16th March and 17th March are very important. And I think DAX has enough time to make it 11600 until then.

This is all projection and anticipation.

Now, I have given my market's technical view. You are best positioned to make decisions for yourself. Remember 10% correction from 11600 will bring DAX at 10440 and 20% correction will bring DAX to 9280.. if at all any correction happens...

Now, you can do the following:

1. Wait until market reach your break even point and take your capital back. This may and may not happen quickly.
2.Close everything in loss, start with small capital and take on to the many opportunity market gives you to trade...and you may or may not make money...
 
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If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.
-Jesse Livermore

When the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day – and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way, you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit and you get out – too soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts.
-Jesse Livermore


It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.
-Jesse Livermore

 
macgyver said:
Hello everyone,
I am a long time lurker trying to learn from all your experience and trading very infrequently. I have landed myself in a big mess by not following the rules and need your advice. I went short on DAX in January when it was around 10000 but it kept going up and up. I kept selling n selling hoping that the Greece or Ukraine crisis will bring it down but that never happened.
Now I need advice from you experienced people that would DAX go down at all or not.
I am happy to hold my positions and wait but then I stand a risk that DAX goes up to 12000 or should I buy it in the dips to minimise my losses.
Thanks a lot
Click to expand...

Horrible situation & feel for you. I took a couple of nasty hits last year, but decided to cut & learn a valuable lesson or two.

It may depend on how much loss (monetary wise) you will suffer if you cut these positions, but it will free you psychologically & allow you to start afresh if they are losses you don't want to but can afford to lose, so maybe it depends on your monetary loss & if you can absorb it. I chose to bail, it's a cr@p gut wrenching feeling, but it has made me much more aware (probably a little too aware) & made me delve even deeper into the workings of the great unknown Dax beast.

Nobody really knows where the Dax or any instrument will go, the day traders trade the ebb & flow of the technical levels, using experience & a knowledge of the enormous damage that can be done if a losing trade is allowed to get out of control.

For sure it will retrace, but when & where ??

You are certainly not alone, all the people I know of who have done well in this game have sat staring blankly at a massive loss, more than once

I wish you well
 
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