Good morning all. I have spent this morning doing some research into the average range for the morning session of the FTSE futures. ie 8am to noon. You may find it of interest.
I have taken data from January 6th to today, covering 38 trading days of data. Now during this time the average daily range (24 hours) has dropped from 89.5 pts to 54.5 pts.
The average range for the 4 hours between 8am and noon is 39.5 pts.
This average has been falling throughout the 38 days until recently when it has started to go back up.
Not disputing your calcs Martin, Merely highlighting the fact that the DAX has twice the range of the FTSE currently)
(not disputing your figures MArtin, merey highlighting that the DAX has on average twice the range of the FTSE Currently)
The average for 5 day periods is as follows:
Last 5 days 34.6
5 to 10 days ago 28.7
10 to 15 days ago 30.2
15 to 20 days ago 47.1
20 to 25 days ago 49.5
25 to 30 days ago 46.3
30 to 35 days ago 45.4
The high of the session happened 19 times between 8am and 9am
The high of the session happened 3 times between 9am and 10am
The high of the session happened 8 times between 10am and 11am
The high of the session happened 8 times between 11am and 12pm
The low of the session happened 21 times between 8am and 9am
The low of the session happened 6 times between 9am and 10am
The low of the session happened 3 times between 10am and 11am
The low of the session happened 10 times between 11am and 12pm
The average range for the 8am to 9am period is 27.3
The average range for the 9am to 10am period is 20.9
The average range for the 10am to 11am period is 17.8
The average range for the 11am to 12pm period is 14.8
Basically 50% of the time the high or low of the morning session is in the first hour.
If the opening hour has a range smaller than the average of 27 pts, you are probably in for a slow morning.