Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

2be said:
There is possible ABC formation on DAX, with possible termination on B around 9610, which is 61.8 fib retracement from the last move down on Daily.
Click to expand...

Hi 2Be, from what I can see there are 4 possibilities from here:
1. Dax continues uptrend.
2. Dax reverses from here as possibile end of 1st wave started 08Aug, retraces 50-61.8% and then continues up.
3. Dax reverses from here as possibile end of 2nd wave started 08Aug - 1st wave was 03Jul-08Aug.
4. As you say this is B of ABC from 03Jul.

Validates/Invalidates
1. Dax continues uptrend: Valid if we get closes above 9610 - invalid if we get closes below 9610.
2. Possible wave 1: Valid if retraces to 9170-9253 then continues up. Invalid if continues past 9610 without retrace. Invalid if continues past 9170 without bounce.
3. Possible wave 2: Valid if drops past 08Aug low 8903. Invalid if reverses before 8903.
4. B of ABC: Valid if drops past 8903. Invalid if we get closes above 9610.

So my question is, why do you think B is the most likely at this stage?

Am I over complicating the situation?:confused:
 
Last edited:
Can I ask why do the analysis if the results are so inconclusive.
"It could do one of 4 things..."
I didnt need to spend hours crunching numbers to come to the conclusion it will do one of 3 things Go up, Go down, stay the same.

paszkman said:
Hi 2Be, from what I can see there are 4 possibilities from here:
1. Dax continues uptrend.
2. Dax reverses from here as possibile end of 1st wave started 08Aug, retraces 50-61.8% and then continues up.
3. Dax reverses from here as possibile end of 2nd wave started 08Aug - 1st wave was 03Jul-08Aug.
4. As you say this is B of ABC from 03Jul.

Validates/Invalidates
1. Dax continues uptrend: Valid if we get closes above 9610 - invalid if we get closes below 9610.
2. Possible wave 1: Valid if retraces to 9170-9253 then continues up. Invalid if continues past 9610 without retrace. Invalid if continues past 9170 without bounce.
3. Possible wave 2: Valid if drops past 08Aug low 8903. Invalid if reverses before 8903.
4. B of ABC: Valid if drops past 8903. Invalid if we get closes above 9610.

So my question is, why do you think B is the most likely at this stage?

Am I over complicating the situation?:confused:
Click to expand...
 
postman said:
Can I ask why do the analysis if the results are so inconclusive.
"It could do one of 4 things..."
I didnt need to spend hours crunching numbers to come to the conclusion it will do one of 3 things Go up, Go down, stay the same.
Click to expand...

by doing the analysis was hoping to be a bit more conclusive..just trying to figure out what is the most probable path..at this stage scenario 1 is least likely as we haven't had the close above 9610...so narrowing down the possibilities..and with each day that passes, the market will reveal more info..not exactly hours crunching numbers..maybe 20mins to check chart and write the post...

I know this is easy stuff for you, but for a beginner like me it helps to talk through the process to see where I am going wrong (or right..eventually)..
 
paszkman said:
Hi 2Be, from what I can see there are 4 possibilities from here:
1. Dax continues uptrend.
2. Dax reverses from here as possibile end of 1st wave started 08Aug, retraces 50-61.8% and then continues up.
3. Dax reverses from here as possibile end of 2nd wave started 08Aug - 1st wave was 03Jul-08Aug.
4. As you say this is B of ABC from 03Jul.

Validates/Invalidates
1. Dax continues uptrend: Valid if we get closes above 9610 - invalid if we get closes below 9610.
2. Possible wave 1: Valid if retraces to 9170-9253 then continues up. Invalid if continues past 9610 without retrace. Invalid if continues past 9170 without bounce.
3. Possible wave 2: Valid if drops past 08Aug low 8903. Invalid if reverses before 8903.
4. B of ABC: Valid if drops past 8903. Invalid if we get closes above 9610.

So my question is, why do you think B is the most likely at this stage?

Am I over complicating the situation?:confused:
Click to expand...
Looking at dax weekly it is likely that the 3rd impulsive has been terminated at the dax H, an impulsive is usually followed by an ABC corrective, in this case the 4th, which is to be in relation to the second, and the 3rd.
R Miner has explained these EW relationships and there is a resume of these in the last chapter of his book, Dynamic trading. That is the reason I am looking for an ABC corrective. If this is to happen there shall be a clear structure, though the 4th is usually very difficult to trade.
We are also at the Inversion Time Window in relation to the LTD/MC4.
one has to be ready to trade whatever happens, but not in the indecisive "war zone", where Dax has been oscillating all day.
If this structure holds, there will be plenty pips on the ride south, if it is broken, we need to be long.
The summer ranges will be soon over, that is one positive thing.
Come whatever, do not allow yourself to be caught without SL in place.
2be
 
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9,600 area looks a stalling point from previous moves up.
From a funny mental point.
Think the market has priced a cut in the negative deposit rate.
But not priced in is a US style QE, if or when they go.
All eyes on the ECB going forward.
 
12WBT said:
9,600 area looks a stalling point from previous moves up.
From a funny mental point.
Think the market has priced a cut in the negative deposit rate.
But not priced in is a US style QE, if or when they go.
All eyes on the ECB going forward.
Click to expand...

Well austerity didnt work for most of Europe ('cause they're a lazy bunch of b@stards), so lets go back to chucking money at the problem and leave the next 5 generations to pick up the pieces. You know they'll do it eventually :rolleyes:
In the meantime Nikkei is falling steadily ;)
 
First move south brought good pips with reaching extension targets 127.2 and 141.1 measured from the beginning of the first move today, with 50% traducement.
Reasonable entry was 9550, which is the bottom of the zone, taking into account yesterday close at 9:00pm - 10 pips.
the next target is 161.8@ 9423 for dax
 

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Chalky_trader said:
DAX now moved 135 pips approx from 7.00 open which equals its 14 day ATR, getting nervous with my shorts here now :confused:
Click to expand...

Close, walk away and enjoy the rest of the day, Mr market will still be there tomorrow. (y)
Although a sizeable portion of the Ukraine may not. :LOL:
 
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