MC - your basing pattern is wider than mine. No surprise really as you work on a longer time frame than me. I can only go by the 1 hr chart which is clearly in a downward channel. The ES has just put in a bounce off the 78.6% level (1220.50), and could go either way. If at this point it makes a new high above that level, then a retest of the top of the channel is likely at 1226.50. If the ES goes below 1207.75 then I see a retest of the 1198.0 low and probably lower.
Mornington Crescent
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sorry about that
if it gets too confusing do shout out
I could have wished for it to make an afternoon low below 5381 but it may do
Not confusing really. We've put in 8 days in a row of lower lows, sooner or later we should get a series of higher lows. The market is still in a wide range, but maybe next results season starting with Alcoa in the second week of January can tell us really whether companies are starting to struggle or not.
Mornington Crescent
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dont you just love this game
has now cleared yesterdays high by a whisker
just enough to take out stops
has now cleared yesterdays high by a whisker
just enough to take out stops
Mornington Crescent
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just re-read your post
I have been posting about the basing pattern on the 5 min chart
That explains why I couldn't see your basing pattern. I was looking at higher time frames.
As for today, options expire at 10:15am for the FTSE futures.
Mornington Crescent
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quadruple witching for us so everything expires today
plus
Regular DOW December options and futures expiry (1515CST/2115GMT)
plus
Regular DOW December options and futures expiry (1515CST/2115GMT)
Mornington Crescent
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however open interest seems to have been holding up
which implies that everybody is happy with their current exposure
which also implies that the current major trend will continue
after expiry is out of the way
which implies that everybody is happy with their current exposure
which also implies that the current major trend will continue
after expiry is out of the way
This is a slightly more nervy morning of an options expiry. That big spike down at 8:50am came out of nowhere, and was a fake.
I am watching the ES for now. It's at the top of its channel on the 1 hour chart. A move above 1226.50 would signify a breakout from that channel and a higher high from two days ago. That might be the Santa rally people are looking for. On the downside, maybe a move below 1215.25 would be enough to say it has bounced off the upper trendline of the channel and a move back to 1200 should be expected.
As for the rumour of a downgrade for Spain and Italy, well the market gapped higher and hasn't sold off yet. Maybe the market is already expecting the news and has decided to ignore it.
I am watching the ES for now. It's at the top of its channel on the 1 hour chart. A move above 1226.50 would signify a breakout from that channel and a higher high from two days ago. That might be the Santa rally people are looking for. On the downside, maybe a move below 1215.25 would be enough to say it has bounced off the upper trendline of the channel and a move back to 1200 should be expected.
As for the rumour of a downgrade for Spain and Italy, well the market gapped higher and hasn't sold off yet. Maybe the market is already expecting the news and has decided to ignore it.
dc2000
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jingle bells
jingle bells
santas on his way
to see the FTSE at 5800
by the end of next friday
oh
jingle bells
jingle bells
rockin around the christmas tree
yes the DOW is gonna be
rockin around the christmas tree
just for the joy of you and me
when its at 12314 before monday
da da da da didle e dee
jingle bells
santas on his way
to see the FTSE at 5800
by the end of next friday
oh
jingle bells
jingle bells
rockin around the christmas tree
yes the DOW is gonna be
rockin around the christmas tree
just for the joy of you and me
when its at 12314 before monday
da da da da didle e dee
I am guessing that the price action will go higher into the 10:15am expiry, and then slowly drift down for the next 2 hours. Price might get as high as 5410 or even 5420 on a spike at expiry. The last 10 minutes we have seen a bot selling into any rise. I think they have dumped around 2000 lots. It just looked like someone closing out a position.
Your singing is getting better! I think you've started the eggnog early.
Since we are in a rhyming mood.
We seek him here, we seek him there
Those FTSE Sclapers seek him everywhere!
Is he in heaven? Or is he in hell?
That ????? Elusive DC2000
Sorry I had to type it.
Is the FTSE/Dow on a Buy day?
DaddyJohn
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Never mind Buy Day ctipast ... we are in a BUY WEEK !!! and it is Friday !!!
DaddyJohn
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DC ... glad to have you back... I have spent the last three days analysing 4 years of ftse weekly data... I now realise that this is where the clever thinking is.. from my work I can see that we are in a buy week and that indeed Santa is coming to town :whistling
Now going to start looking at the monthly cycles !!!!!
neil
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Last edited:
DaddyJohn
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