Anyone scalping the FTSE Futures??

[Talbs!]

check out the rebound in GBPUSD and also EURUSD.

cannot believe the move since lunch time ! tried to short the high from the other day, out of that now, but as long as the dow goes up im happy ! :clap::cheesy:

 

[SuddenDeath]

this bull is trampling everyone and everything in its past,

 

[adotsri]

This is ridiculous lol.

 

[Talbs!]

Dax robots out in force trying to stop this going up into the close (must not make new high) ! If it goes its going to rip higher ! Good chance i think !

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Afternoon all,

As some are wondering what my position is like I will post here to be seen.

As you can see by the attachment I am still in my Short dax trades. If it pulls off then great, if not I lose a bit more than I originally expected, but then again the markets are always changing and this allows me to always change my mind.

At this time I am very happy to keep shorting the sh1t out of it.

I have posted up a screenshot of the platform to see current positions and ones that have been added to in relation to the Dax shorts only. All other trades are blanked out as I do not wish to discuss all that I do. No secret, just don't wish to get too involved in discussions about it.

I have also posted a recent statement to show closed positions on the dax shorts. As stated previously I will chop in and out until I either close out the last for profit or a total drawdown on the remaining contracts should any get left behind.

PS: Double click on picture to zoom in.

PSS: Still waiting for that big one.

All the best,

Lee Shepherd

 

[SuddenDeath]

afternoon Lee Shepherd

 

[SuddenDeath]

VOD 172.9 crossing above 200 day ma

 

[samspade79]

So Lee is the 88%

 

[MartinC-J]

Well I wouldn't call that a grind higher. More like a gold rush. I am short at the close, because I just don't believe it. Small potatoes only.

 

[barjon]

PSS: Still waiting for that big one.

Lee Shepherd

The big one has been on the other carriageway, Lee. Unlike you not be riding shotgun on the wagon

 

[Talbs!]

Think Lee should lob out another £20 in the dax and average in ! Ive got out of all my longs and shorted the Dax on the close and bought some bunds ! Night all been a whippy day !

 

[stellarog]

For those that like picking tops the ftse high for the year will be tomorrow at 6361 for all others stay long

Stella

 

[brewski1984]

Reckon the whole world will be shorting the DOW at 14k?

 

[samspade79]

For those that like picking tops the ftse high for the year will be tomorrow at 6361 for all others stay long

Stella

High for the day, FTSE wants 6600 this year.

 

[zorbas]

Reckon the whole world will be shorting the DOW at 14k?

Or the other way around, it will take off all stops on the way up !

 

[SuddenDeath]

The markets are rallying because no one thinks they should be rallying,

the market takes money from the majority and gives it to the minority

 

[SuddenDeath]

Dow +70

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Trading method​

I will (in brief and basic form) post my trading method here again as it hasn't really been updated since my trading diary in 2008 (5 years ago). Although the method itself has not changed, the way it’s explained may have.

Examples only: Please note these are spread betting prices and will differ from actual market data

Dax Shorts and how I build positions.

Dax starts off from a previous year gain of plus 27%. I would argue this could simply not continue year in year out as by the following:

7600 + 27% = 9652 year 1 (2013)

9652 + 27% = 12,258 year 2 (2014)

There really is not enough money/belief and ultimately we all have to have true conviction in the economics of money and all financial transactions.

Amongst this there are always pullbacks, retracements, corrections, crashes....call them what you like or what the media heads like but typically speaking the markets will range many times more than they trend....This is fact – therefore even should my positions be on the wrong side I can still profit from the range trades which in turn compensates for any potential losses.

So I would start to build positions in from 7600 starting with smaller stake sizes and it would build like this. I will use a specific model which throws up percentages against risk/reward so this is why you will see odd numbers like pence. This is to keep it tight in the money management compartment. Ie, it may be around 91.00% plus on each trade currently as oppose to 100% as a simple demonstration below or any factor to 2 decimal points and can change depending on market conditions which in turn is factored by the moving average and range. For example the percentage can be as little as equal weight all the way up to double weight (0-100%)

7600 @ £2pp

7700 @ £4pp

7800 @ £8pp

7900 @ £16pp

8000 @ £32pp

‘Mean’ on the dax would be 7800 to breakeven but due to it being weighted the true ‘mean’ (weighted average) would be 7916. Much closer to the major resistance (TA Speaking of course) than just keeping equal weight.

This would mean that just to breakeven on these groups of trades and assuming I have made nothing out of trading the range and also assuming it went up in one continuous swoop to take me out I would only require 84 points for the lot to get out unhurt.

Naturally many will argue about this method although I figure it more closer to most...It is not posted to create this and most that argue have either tried it and been burnt by their own individual methods, money management, fear and greed mentality, psychological attitudes or have never tried at all and wish to keep to whatever method they are using today (which in most cases changes from week to week, month to month and so on). Once a true method has been found it will be used for ever more.

I don’t wish to get in to debates over what methods work best etc as there really is no ‘Best method’. There is only a ‘method’ that works best for that individual and to be honest this is evident on whether they are making money or not...it’s that simple. When I say making money I don’t mean making money over the last couple of months because all our experienced people here know that that is not long enough. We need to be talking years here, net profit, profit against all past losses, we need to be talking taking money out and not ‘topping’ up, and ultimately we need to be talking about spending it, ie, really making money from trading, not letting it sit on account more than is needed or trying desperately to compound only to see it all disappear again.

The Technical methods I use remain the same as always:

Trend lines (I’m not blind to the uptrend; I just choose to ignore/counter trade).

Moving averages: 20/50/100 (all trending up)

Moving Average Convergence Divergence: 20/50/100 (all trending up)

Histogram (looks to the upside)

Time frames of: Daily/Weekly/Monthly/Yearly (never less)

I have attached a graph as a typical and simple way in which I use this.

I have touched on the simple method previously regarding trading the Ftse 100 as a pure example.

From as far back as 1996 and to date it has had lows of around 3300 and highs of around 6800 (give or take) This makes the ‘mean’ of 5050 – also bear in mind this is not weighted as discussed above. This being said would mean that over the last decade and a half (15 years plus) – shorting above 5050 and going long below this figure would have grossed profit on EVERY SINGLE TRADE. This EXCLUDES any and all range trades, pullbacks, retracements, crashes, corrections, rallies etc. Every one of the trades would have come true. Throw in some weight behind the trades and more money/less risk is on the table.

So in response to will I be adding/averaging – You bet, I’ll keep shorting this all the way up to where ever you think it’s going to go and more. If you think the dax will hit 9,652 this year then I will trade up to this level and some.

Again I won’t get in to discussions about averaging etc – it’s not for everyone and it’s certainly not for the faint hearted. Most disagree with it, I understand that but then again I’m not looking to convert people here, just explain my methods.

Money management is absolute key and is more pertinent than ever when trading this way.

Hope this answers some of my ‘madness’.

All the best,

Lee

 

[zorbas]

Dow +70

Hi SD, do you think any possibilities of hitting 14K at the close ?

Opened an account with Intertrader and been scalping with small positions for 5-10 points just to get used to it. The 1point spread is indeed very helpful for these kind of trades.
Yesterday however it missed a stop and had to close it manually.
Have you experienced anything similar ?

 

[SuddenDeath]

Hi SD, do you think any possibilities of hitting 14K at the close ?

Opened an account with Intertrader and been scalping with small positions for 5-10 points just to get used to it. The 1point spread is indeed very helpful for these kind of trades.
Yesterday however it missed a stop and had to close it manually.
Have you experienced anything similar ?

hmm. pure guesswork, if it holds these levels into the final 30mins the pro's will buy it into the close. so possible,

I keep forgetting they have 1pt spread on dow, Dow is very easy to trade with 1pt spread. stops can sometimes slip but otherwise they are fine.