Anyone need any help?

[FXX]

I'm probably replying out of context, but anyone who uses 'fundamentals' for a trade they intend to hold for less than 12 months is seriously kidding themselves. I'd even go so far as saying less than 5 years...You don't understand economic cycles if you think fundamentals can help you with short term trading.

You talking about investing not trading. But you can apply it intraday successfully. I am not full time but my account is growing using this approach.

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[Lee Shepherd]

I'm probably replying out of context, but anyone who uses 'fundamentals' for a trade they intend to hold for less than 12 months is seriously kidding themselves. I'd even go so far as saying less than 5 years...You don't understand economic cycles if you think fundamentals can help you with short term trading.

@FXX
I’ll check and come back to you shortly if not tomorrow as out on the p1ss and I take your post seriously enough to not respond in my current state.

Now for @new_trader

Have you not seen news change the markets in a heartbeat. What about NFP. Come on mate. You’re taking the p1ss surely?

 

[new_trader]

You talking about investing not trading. But you can apply it intraday successfully. I am not full time but my account is growing using this approach.

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I don't think you are trading true fundamentals if you think it improves intra-day trading. Fundamentals are basic, they don't need to be scrutinized everyday. This isn't an opinion, this is a general principle. It would be like saying the UK economy is in recession this morning but it will end by the afternoon. Then checking your data the next day to see what state the UK economy is in so you can trade it.

 

[gtspeed]

Hello Tar,


I am surprised by your comment mate but nonetheless you are entitled to it. I have posted so many screenshots, bank statements, made hundreds of live calls and shown pictures of my live account clearly showing profit on numerous occasions throughout the years, I've kept weekly blogs running for months on end and openly shown my live account to people when we've met out. I am THE most transparent person on here, many have met me in the flesh and some on T2W still remain close to me today. All of this is still available on the net for all to see.

I have no idea what I am supposed to do to satisfy the doubters and those who struggle to make money and do not think it is possible. Maybe that's what it is? Maybe they just don't believe its possible. If I have misunderstood then please tell me where it is you feel I 'should' do more to prove myself? (that's not a dig either mate - I have long standing respect for you).

Is it that some people genuinely do not believe that a person making money from the markets consistently - ie, a profitable trader, would want to be part of a good community of newbie traders?
I was there once you know.

And in return what do I ask for? ........... Nothing. (other than respect and maybe a thank you from time to time)

Those who want to believe will succeed, those who don't, won't.


PS: Thank you for the welcome back.

Regards,
Lee

I would not worry ,

 

[FXX]

I don't think you are trading true fundamentals if you think it improves intra-day trading. Fundamentals are basic, they don't need to be scrutinized everyday. This isn't an opinion, this is a general principle. It would be like saying the UK economy is in recession this morning but it will end by the afternoon. Then checking your data the next day to see what state the UK economy is in so you can trade it.

If this is your perception of fundamentals intraday then you have a lot to learn. Your example is nonsensical which explains why you don't understand what's going on. A recession requires decreasing Gdp for more than 2 consecutive quarters.

Fundamentals are constantly being scrutinised. Why would large firms waste money on real-time news feeds if they only needed to look at it occasionally? Why does the market react when news is released based on a number that wasn't expected? Who do you think is moving the market?




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[new_trader]

If this is your perception of fundamentals intraday then you have a lot to learn. Your example is nonsensical which explains why you don't understand what's going on. A recession requires decreasing Gdp for more than 2 consecutive quarters.

you need to learn what an analogy is.

Why would large firms waste money on real-time news feeds if they only needed to look at it occasionally?

Nothing to explain, large firms are wasting money. Why did we have a financial crisis in 2008 if large firms were so informed by their news about economic conditions?

Why does the market react when news is released based on a number that wasn't expected? Who do you think is moving the market?

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The market fluctuates, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with fluctuations in fundamentals.

 

[FXX]

[emoji38] you need to learn what an analogy is.




Nothing to explain, large firms are wasting money. Why did we have a financial crisis in 2008 if large firms were so informed by their news about economic conditions?




The market fluctuates, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with fluctuations in fundamentals.

What are you smoking. The 2008 crisis had absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals. I am wasting my time talking to you.

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[gtspeed]

Interesting reading on this thread, would like opinions on indicators and if they can be used or is price king ?

 

[mpups]

.. The 2008 crisis had absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals..

if not fundamentals, then what was it to do with?

 

[FXX]

if not fundamentals, then what was it to do with?

Greed

Bundling below investment grade debt into an asset with an investment grade classification is where it all went wrong. They did this because their bonuses were tied to the amount of instruments like this being sold. The trigger was defaulting mortgages which spurred on banks to quietly sell the instruments on before the cr@p hit the fan. The ones that went down when it did were holding onto more worthless debt than their assets. You wouldn't have been able to predict this through fundamental analysis and even if you could have (hypothetically speaking of course), why would you sell yourself out!


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[Lee Shepherd]

if not fundamentals, then what was it to do with?

Hi Kaeso,

Don't allow yourself to get confused between cause and effect.

@FXX is correct is stating that fundamentals did not cause the recession.

In simple terms, the recession was caused by 2 negative quarters, this in turn was caused by many different factors but was mostly posted and recognised by growth. Obviously there is a lot underneath this tip of the iceberg. There are also a lot of clues, however, for most, they either don't understand them or worst still, ignore them.

How many people truly know how their workplace is operating behind the scenes?
Even self employed people may not fully know whats going on in their industry and I've heard of so many that ignore the signals and suffer as a result - of course their excuse (or reason) is that they thought it would get better or did not know or understand the underlying issues - it was either a shock or they failed to get out even if they were knowledgeable. We listen to our boss saying how great things are and see the directors driving round in nice new cars but how much do we actually know? The honest answer by most is very little to nothing, at best we are fed positive tag lines which we accept and lap up because it makes us feel good. Then one day we arrive at work like every other day and there are some people who are called administrators padlocking the door.

Ignorance is bliss........ or is it?????

Now think about how most people trade !!


Put it this way, fundamentals did not cause the recession just as much as technical analysis did not cause a recession.

Have a great Sunday

Lee

 

[new_trader]

In simple terms, the recession was caused by 2 negative quarters,

With all due respect, you are talking absolute crap! Two consecutive negative quarters is the way Central Bankers define a recession.

Put it this way, fundamentals did not cause the recession just as much as technical analysis did not cause a recession.

Have a great Sunday

Lee

Other than you, who is saying that fundamentals caused the recession? Fundamentals is a study of the factors that indicate the condition of an economy.

From Investopedia:

Macroeconomic fundamentals include topics that affect an economy at large. This can include statistics regarding unemployment, supply and demand, growth, and inflation, as well as considerations for monetary or fiscal policy and international trade. These categories can be applied to analysis of a large-scale economy as a whole or can be related to individual business activity to make changes based on macroeconomic influences.

People like you try and convince me that you trade the fundamentals intraday and use the NFP release to support your case..

Here is the NFP release from the BLS:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

It is quite a detailed report and I am wondering if you read through the whole report before placing a trade?

Do you look at the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force?

Do you study which sectors added jobs? Average workweek? Average hourly earnings?

Do you study all these factors in an effort to determine whether they are bullish or bearish--intraday only of course--for the instrument you are trading?

 

[mpups]

Greed

Bundling below investment grade debt into an asset with an investment grade classification is where it all went wrong. They did this because their bonuses were tied to the amount of instruments like this being sold. The trigger was defaulting mortgages which spurred on banks to quietly sell the instruments on before the cr@p hit the fan. The ones that went down when it did were holding onto more worthless debt than their assets. You wouldn't have been able to predict this through fundamental analysis and even if you could have (hypothetically speaking of course), why would you sell yourself out!

oh ok, i was thinking about fundamentals of the companies, and obviously the sub-prime debt affected their fundamentals. so i think we just got our wires crossed

 

[new_trader]

You wouldn't have been able to predict this through fundamental analysis and even if you could have (hypothetically speaking of course), why would you sell yourself out!

You know so much...

Here is someone who explained in 2006, quite clearly, the fundamental conditions that lead to the financial crisis of 2008...Yet large firms wasting money on real-time news feeds wouldn't have been able to predict this...right?

The big trade on wall street at the time was shorting sub-prime

...you know so much.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2Gj5snyn_M

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Guys, I’m going to put this to bed as the thread (just like others) has derailed.

@new_trader
Sorry to single you out mate. I love a good debate but the thread doesn’t have to tolerate your aggressive and derailing approach. It just prevents others from coming here with questions. I don’t know why you act like you do but it’s not acceptable. We’re all friends here. The forum is Trade2win not post to argue.com. I notice that you pick and choose bits of posts from everyone on here then mis quote, take out of context or simply put in words that are not there. You don’t know how I trade, what I read and when I read. You also do not know about my tax affairs. And yet (in another thread) dictate that I should be paying more than I should. That’s a case for HMRC, not you. Please do not presume you know me or my tax affairs or trading as it makes you look less intelligent than I’m sure you are. If you cannot keep on topic as per the title of the thread states, then please find another one or better still, start your own thread and see who wishes to participate.

Thank you in advance.

Now back on topic:
Is there anyone here that needs help with any questions or aspects about trading.

Lee

 

[FXX]

You know so much...

Here is someone who explained in 2006, quite clearly, the fundamental conditions that lead to the financial crisis of 2008...Yet large firms wasting money on real-time news feeds wouldn't have been able to predict this...right?

The big trade on wall street at the time was shorting sub-prime

...you know so much.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2Gj5snyn_M

Since when is digging into the details of repackaged mortgages and subsequent analysis of debt holders ability to repay, classified as fundamental analysis. Oh wait, when it's new_trader that doesn't have an understanding of how fundamentals plays a role in day to day trading. You don't even understand the tools. You pull out Lee with nfp stating its a long read and question if he reads that before he places a trade. Well here is some enlightenment for you, we all know you desperately need it and to be honest, you don't even realise you are the laughing stock of the forum to anyone who understands this stuff.

Services like ransquawk have analysts and tools that compare the statement with the last and within moments post a report defining the changes in wording. All the trader has to do is read the previous statement or report prior to the release. You know what they say about assumption new_trader? Do you want me to repeat it here for you or can you work it out on your own.

Do you know what sentiment is? Probably not else we wouldn't be having this conversation. Go Google it since you seem to have taken the time to find a video stating exactly why the recession happened and that it had nothing to do with fundamental analys. Peter Schiff said it himself, he had to do the research into the securities themselves and the type of debt holder. Petty you are unable to even catch that in the video you posted as your evidence of it being fundamentally visible.

Do us all a favour and go play somewhere else as we really don't care for your inability to comprehend this stuff.

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[new_trader]

Since when is digging into the details of repackaged mortgages and subsequent analysis of debt holders ability to repay, classified as fundamental analysis. Oh wait, when it's new_trader that doesn't have an understanding of how fundamentals plays a role in day to day trading. You don't even understand the tools. You pull out Lee with nfp stating its a long read and question if he reads that before he places a trade. Well here is some enlightenment for you, we all know you desperately need it and to be honest, you don't even realise you are the laughing stock of the forum to anyone who understands this stuff.

Services like ransquawk have analysts and tools that compare the statement with the last and within moments post a report defining the changes in wording. All the trader has to do is read the previous statement or report prior to the release. You know what they say about assumption new_trader? Do you want me to repeat it here for you or can you work it out on your own.

Do you know what sentiment is? Probably not else we wouldn't be having this conversation. Go Google it since you seem to have taken the time to find a video stating exactly why the recession happened and that it had nothing to do with fundamental analys. Peter Schiff said it himself, he had to do the research into the securities themselves and the type of debt holder. Petty you are unable to even catch that in the video you posted as your evidence of it being fundamentally visible.

Do us all a favour and go play somewhere else as we really don't care for your inability to comprehend this stuff.

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At best I would say you are trading the markets short term reaction to the economic data, not what the data iteself is signalling. This is economic data that forms a piece of one part of the fundamentals of the economy. Which is what I said from the beginning, you aren't really trading fundamentals and you haven't conviced me otherwise.

 

[FXX]

At best I would say you are trading the markets short term reaction to the economic data, not what the data iteself is signalling. This is economic data that forms a piece of one part of the fundamentals of the economy. Which is what I said from the beginning, you aren't really trading fundamentals and you haven't conviced me otherwise.

I am done debating this with you so let's call it a day.

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[gtopmafia]

Hi Lee,

You say you commit do or die to a trading plan (target). I was wondering if you could bare light on to how you make your targets, I think being new this is one of the toughest things for me and I guess it is something that comes with experience, picking the right target price. Any advice for how to select targets?

Appreciate the consideration

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Hi Lee,

You say you commit do or die to a trading plan (target). I was wondering if you could bare light on to how you make your targets, I think being new this is one of the toughest things for me and I guess it is something that comes with experience, picking the right target price. Any advice for how to select targets?

Appreciate the consideration

Hi gtopmafia,

Ok, I'll give you a very broad example, although not necessarily used but will give you some insight on how to base your targets, entries and exits.

Now, the difficult part here is to help without giving too much that can sway you from being you. That's the important bit. You are unique and have to find your own way and to which, most do. Therefor please accept that my following example is for educational purposes only and not a trading rule. There are also many other alternatives.

Example:
So a trader is looking for the following as set by their strategy (simplified):
A one to two risk reward ratio (RR1:2)

So they look at a chart (simplified - no time frame mentioned) and look for an entry, they will also be looking for the exit (before they click and submit). They won't base it simply as many (failed traders) do by saying 'I can see this is a good long, I'm in, now I'll set my stop 10pts below'. Thats just b0llox trading. Its all b0llox Spencer.

The trader will set their stop according to what they see and what is there, not what they want to see is there. So, the trader will use support/resistance areas, Technical only (TA), to see where the market has gone and where it could go. There are also many different variations of MA, more variations that a country of traders could possibly even study. This excludes any and all of the other TA tools that can be used and in the many thousand different forms they take. There are literally an indefinite amount of signals and variations.

The trader will also use moving averages (MA) to help determine the amount of move possible - example, the MA on the chosen market (minute/daily/weekly) is at or near it's top, there isn't necessarily much room for it to continue before being classed as over bought - technically speaking.


Lee
End of message.

Sorry mate, I'm bored now and my fingers are hurting. This is a very complex talk and not something I can even break down to something simple in a short post. If we ever meet out, I may discuss further but this is definitely a lengthy discussion, not a set in stone example set in a post kind of thing.