Anyone know what happened to crude in the wee hours?

[laptop1]

Oil bounces back well after only two days down..... so far!
Considering hostage releases ............... oil is very very strong.....
Mild pullback means bully goes on ......... for new swing highs...... probably.

I concur

 

[grantx]

Atilla,

Al-Qaida stupid? Evil, sick, yes. Not stupid. Just like the IRA, and how long did that take to resolve (if one can say there is a resolution)?

Grant.

 

[Atilla]

Atilla,

Al-Qaida stupid? Evil, sick, yes. Not stupid. Just like the IRA, and how long did that take to resolve (if one can say there is a resolution)?

Grant.

IRA if I remember always gave warnings about their bombs. 20mins or so. There target was not to kill innocent civilians.

Establishment targets yes, like Royal bands or troops on parade but not civilians.

Al-Qaida is sick, twisted and evil.

What I don't understand is why none of their top vermins are not held up to account in courts. Everyone brandishes their name and not one is held up on account. The plebs in the London bombings are insignificant. The guys in Guantanamo, I mean we don't know who they are what they are, their background nothing.

This is not how you fight these terrorist basturds.

They are special breed of sickos.

 

[fastnet]

What do we make of the oil prices moves in the past 24hours. By lunchtime Tuesday I was all out of a position built over the past fortnight . . . . . . expecting a big move down after all the talk of a ''hostage premium'' being built into the price.

However sailors now on their way home and the price remains firm.

When price ignores clear direction from fundamentals it ususally best to follow it - but what's going on?

 

[Atilla]

What do we make of the oil prices moves in the past 24hours. By lunchtime Tuesday I was all out of a position built over the past fortnight . . . . . . expecting a big move down after all the talk of a ''hostage premium'' being built into the price.

However sailors now on their way home and the price remains firm.

When price ignores clear direction from fundamentals it ususally best to follow it - but what's going on?

Does anybody know if the US military exercises still going on?

I think they may have called it a two week long exercise? Not sure though...

 

[Crap Buddist]

Does anybody know if the US military exercises still going on?

I think they may have called it a two week long exercise? Not sure though...

Its a bit like that film "The Money Pit" when all the builders and plumbers are asked, "So how long is this gonna take?" they always replied "2 weeks"

Anyways 6 months later..... etc.etc......

maybe its a standard americanised robotic response..... 2 weeks..... not to be confused with the use of the term "couple of weeks", that implies unsurety, and means the robot needs to go to realignment and hit with hammers until the firm, "2 weeks" response is complied with.

Just my view on it.

 

[inggscap]

As far as I know, the exercises are over, media mainly commented that it was the US doing exercises but it was actually about 6 countries in total, including Pakistan, China etc.

As for why it keeps going up, long term techinicals still show an arrow pointing to the heavens, well ok not that bad, perhaps $75 or so but if it breaks through support of 63.45 then it could head down for a bit before another trip back towards 75.

Just my 2 cents... but being oil, possibly having the ancestral brains of dinosaurs, it could do anything.

 

[Atilla]

As far as I know, the exercises are over, media mainly commented that it was the US doing exercises but it was actually about 6 countries in total, including Pakistan, China etc.

As for why it keeps going up, long term techinicals still show an arrow pointing to the heavens, well ok not that bad, perhaps $75 or so but if it breaks through support of 63.45 then it could head down for a bit before another trip back towards 75.

Just my 2 cents... but being oil, possibly having the ancestral brains of dinosaurs, it could do anything.

Thanks inggscap, I was expecting more news on it but it all went quiet perhaps a good thing and for a good reason.

I manage to scalp oil couple of times and feel I should short again but simply being over cautious. So I look at it instead...

My hunch is it will oscillate around 60 - 65 for a while.

 

[inggscap]

No probs mate, yeah I usually do the 30mins chart and I've just stayed out, it's all over the place, much prefer the long term look at the mo.

I had the dates for those mil exercises the other day but for the life of me can't find them in this heap anymore haha, one sec... yeah, March 29th was the last day.

As a side note, Reuters mentions that a Russian general said the US could crack Iran air defences, this also comes as word spreads from Russian intel that the US could attack as soon as tomorrow (6th)...hmm, could be an active weekend and an even more active Sunday/Monday come oil opening time if that is the case.

 

[Atilla]

No probs mate, yeah I usually do the 30mins chart and I've just stayed out, it's all over the place, much prefer the long term look at the mo.

I had the dates for those mil exercises the other day but for the life of me can't find them in this heap anymore haha, one sec... yeah, March 29th was the last day.

As a side note, Reuters mentions that a Russian general said the US could crack Iran air defences, this also comes as word spreads from Russian intel that the US could attack as soon as tomorrow (6th)...hmm, could be an active weekend and an even more active Sunday/Monday come oil opening time if that is the case.

Is everybody catching the news re: Bombs in Iraq parliament restaurant and Turkey planning an opperation against the PKK terrorists on Northern Iraq. Apparently Barzani has some silly things which has upset the Turks.

Turks have said if US travels 000s of miles to fight terrorists then they are entitled to cross the border to settle the score with the terrorists hanging out in the mountains.

This can escallate. May explain why gold and oil on high tension along with Iran. Apparently Iran carried out similar offensive againts the Kurds carrying out terrorist activities on it's Northern border.

I don't know what the Americans are doing but if they call terrorists who fight them terrorists and then breed terrorists to fight Iran and not protect it's allies (Turkey) against terrorists where does it exactly stand for on this terrorism issue.

Iraq is likely to become a lot more complicated very soon. Turks are also talking about an embargo on Norther Iraq including flight bans.

I'm also reading about some bad virus outbreak in a hospital on the Isle of Wight...

Oh dear oh dear. What is happening...

 

[Atilla]

Any explanation for the rise in oil anyone?

I can't believe a bomb in the Iraqi parliament can cause such a surge. Iraq isn't fundamental anymore to the oil price is it?

I don't know my self just puzzled about the developments.

To top it off, SPX rising with oil. One for the books. Bloomberg asking who is buying and nobody seems to know.

Any guesses?

 

[TWI]

I did.
IEA report was broadly bullish:
HIGHLIGHTS from IEA OIL MONTHLY APRIL REPORT
• Dated Brent prices continued to rise from mid-March to average $68/bbl in early April, driven by a strong US gasoline market. Peak seasonal refinery maintenance, a string of outages and the switch to summer specifications kept gasoline supply tight. OPEC cuts, falling stocks and geopolitical tension over Iran lent further support.
• World oil output fell by 265 kb/d in March to 85.3 mb/d on OPEC supply cuts and OECD production outages. Non-OPEC growth in 2007 is unchanged at 1.1 mb/d, versus 0.4 mb/d in 2006, extending the sharp recovery evident since mid-2006. OPEC NGLs will grow by 0.25 mb/d this year to 4.9 mb/d. Seasonal factors peg non-OPEC supply below 50.3 mb/d through to 3Q, before growth resumes to 50.9 mb/d in 4Q.
• OPEC March crude supply fell by 165 kb/d to 30.1 mb/d, largely due to Nigerian and Iraqi outages. OPEC supply curbs since last autumn have coincided with two quarters of heavy OECD stock draws and output remains below the level needed to generate the usual spring crude stock build. Effective spare capacity is 3.0 mb/d, but could diminish as the 0.7 mb/d of net new capacity due onstream by end-2007 lags an expected 2 mb/d rise in the call.
• Global oil product demand has been revised down to 84.3 mb/d in 2006 (last report 84.5mbpd) and 85.8 mb/d in 2007 (last report 86mbpd). For 2006 this is mainly related to improved data in non-OECD countries. Demand in the OECD remained largely unchanged, as a cold snap in North America was offset by milder temperatures in Europe and the Pacific.
• Total OECD inventories fell by 80.5 mb in February on declining product stocks in all regions and a crude draw in the Pacific. Forward cover is declining counter-seasonally and preliminary March data for the US, Japan and Europe indicate an unusual 1Q stock draw of around 1.0 mb/d. Oils stocks in OECD nations could be headed for biggest Q1 drop since 1996.
• OECD February refinery throughputs fell by 0.6 mb/d, to 38.5 mb/d, due to heavier maintenance and unplanned shutdowns. Russian and Chinese
crude runs in February increased by a combined 0.5 mb/d, to a new record level of 11.3 mb/d. OECD crude runs in March fell further to around 38.2mb/d, but are expected to recover to 38.7 mb/d in April.

 

[Atilla]

I did.
IEA report was broadly bullish:
HIGHLIGHTS from IEA OIL MONTHLY APRIL REPORT
• Dated Brent prices continued to rise from mid-March to average $68/bbl in early April, driven by a strong US gasoline market. Peak seasonal refinery maintenance, a string of outages and the switch to summer specifications kept gasoline supply tight. OPEC cuts, falling stocks and geopolitical tension over Iran lent further support.
• World oil output fell by 265 kb/d in March to 85.3 mb/d on OPEC supply cuts and OECD production outages. Non-OPEC growth in 2007 is unchanged at 1.1 mb/d, versus 0.4 mb/d in 2006, extending the sharp recovery evident since mid-2006. OPEC NGLs will grow by 0.25 mb/d this year to 4.9 mb/d. Seasonal factors peg non-OPEC supply below 50.3 mb/d through to 3Q, before growth resumes to 50.9 mb/d in 4Q.
• OPEC March crude supply fell by 165 kb/d to 30.1 mb/d, largely due to Nigerian and Iraqi outages. OPEC supply curbs since last autumn have coincided with two quarters of heavy OECD stock draws and output remains below the level needed to generate the usual spring crude stock build. Effective spare capacity is 3.0 mb/d, but could diminish as the 0.7 mb/d of net new capacity due onstream by end-2007 lags an expected 2 mb/d rise in the call.
• Global oil product demand has been revised down to 84.3 mb/d in 2006 (last report 84.5mbpd) and 85.8 mb/d in 2007 (last report 86mbpd). For 2006 this is mainly related to improved data in non-OECD countries. Demand in the OECD remained largely unchanged, as a cold snap in North America was offset by milder temperatures in Europe and the Pacific.
• Total OECD inventories fell by 80.5 mb in February on declining product stocks in all regions and a crude draw in the Pacific. Forward cover is declining counter-seasonally and preliminary March data for the US, Japan and Europe indicate an unusual 1Q stock draw of around 1.0 mb/d. Oils stocks in OECD nations could be headed for biggest Q1 drop since 1996.
• OECD February refinery throughputs fell by 0.6 mb/d, to 38.5 mb/d, due to heavier maintenance and unplanned shutdowns. Russian and Chinese
crude runs in February increased by a combined 0.5 mb/d, to a new record level of 11.3 mb/d. OECD crude runs in March fell further to around 38.2mb/d, but are expected to recover to 38.7 mb/d in April.

Many thanks TWI,

Dare I say considered buying it just as a hit and miss but didn't. I'm getting really cheesed of with my self. I would have bought for the wrong reasons but given 200 pip move from $62 I could have lived with it.

Regards,

 

[Atilla]

Just shorted oil. Looks like it's at the upper end of a downward range.

Also, talk about Dow and markets being near their highs.

Nigerian hiccup can't see it dragging or being significant at present.

Very Speculative.

 

[Atilla]

Just shorted oil. Looks like it's at the upper end of a downward range.

Also, talk about Dow and markets being near their highs.

Nigerian hiccup can't see it dragging or being significant at present.

Very Speculative.

That'll do me. I've closed position on oil and pips in the bag - out of little rush in the DOW and S&P.

I've noticed when the S&P and DOW does move very fast oil usually takes some time to play catch up. Will have to test this theory again for anyone interested in scalping.

 

[TWI]

Yesterday was no fun for my book. In the clear light of day however bigger picture still stands. Commods are still in buy dips mode. There is not a top just small correction. Dollar is not coming back and demand in China never ceases to amaze. I see they became net importer of coal now...that is quite something. With South Africa generally regarded as main exporter...
Also, with all those chinese cars that are selling I do not see demand destruction.

 

[inggscap]

Caught oil yesterday but on it's lower trip south, so only a handful. Long again now at 64.78.

 

[Atilla]

Caught oil yesterday but on it's lower trip south, so only a handful. Long again now at 64.78.

Yes essentially, I think oil will continue to go high but in the short term it tends to over react to minor news.

$66 is a shocking price. Remember when it touched $70 and everybody was like WOW! It then climbed up to $77 only to retreat to $51... That is a big spread over a short few weeks.

Given the state of Iraq and Nigeria and Latin America still not much of a fundamental shift. I think $60 is fair value at the mo. However, I will not short or go long unless I see a scalp opportunity as it's too volatile. (I wished I stayed in longer yesterday for the $64 levels.)

My guestimation is it will fall back coupled with a fall in the DOW and S&P. The worrying aspect is that some people have the indeces going up high until June July. I don't think this will be the case but the TA charts shows it to be a possibility. I think gold and other commodities may retreat a little. I'm expecting the worse in May for people to sell ahead of the summer holidays.

Like last year with housing slump and low confidence I don't think people will get out much to travel to far distant lands - like from one side of US to the other .
We should also bear in mind though hurricane seasons are on the horizon so they may have to.

Anyway although I am long term bullish, I have it trending down in the short term as per my Standard Error Channel chart. If it touches $66 levels again I'll be looking to short for sure.

Wouldn't be surprised if it drops to $62 levels again either. However, will wait for BB and MAs to say so. At the moment it's done a 38% fib retrace back up to $64.90 and may well sink again today.

Waiting and watching me indicatorssss.

Good luck to all

 

[inggscap]

Caught that last ride up before she turned, looks like you getting your lower Oil price there Atilla haha Yeah, next few weeks the black gold looks southerly. Nice catch on Friday.

Interesting how GBP/USD and Oil seemed to be an exact copy on the charts (30m) from near the end of last week, was quite amusing. I had them up next to each other and sometimes I had to check the price to make sure I was looking at the right contract.