alan5616
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It's been ages since I posted on T2W but, as the thread still active, I thought it might be useful to share some of my experience of betting and trading football matches on Betfair. In the past year I have concentrated, almost exclusively, on this to make some extra money. Most of the bets/trades were on Man U, Chelsea, Tottenham & Paris St. G games.
I'm a trader, more than a backer or layer. My favourite bet is to back a correct score that has some chance of materialising and then trade it out when goals are scored. I, rarely, let a match go to full time. I, also, make some profitable bets on matches that are 0-0 at HT. The reason being is that most of them don't end up that way.
My strategy of trading out has reaped dividends. On many occasions, had I stuck with the initial bet, until full time, I would have lost. The old adage of markets being driven by fear and greed is just as applicable to sports betting as it is to the financial markets. I haven't made my fortune but, a 25% return in my first full year isn't too bad. It beats bank interest for sure
I traded futures, and spot forex, for years. For me, Betfair trading on football matches is far less stressful as, I'm safe in the knowledge that I'm not going to get bad fills/slipped or, generally, ripped off by the scamming market makers and spread bettors that see retail traders as mugs to be taken advantage of. Particularly true in spot forex markets.
In conclusion, I would advise football traders to look at your open position(s) in terms of % profit and not in terms of £ made. If you've had a £50 bet and you're making a £5 profit, within 10 minutes, then take it. Where can you find a bank that will give you that return on your money? Going for bigger profits, is a recipe for disaster. As Brian Clough used to say, "it only takes a second to score a goal". That goal can be scored by the underdog just as easily as the hot favourite; your bet, which you could have cashed in for a profit, has now gone down the drain.
Good luck, to all footie traders here, for the forthcoming season.
I'm a trader, more than a backer or layer. My favourite bet is to back a correct score that has some chance of materialising and then trade it out when goals are scored. I, rarely, let a match go to full time. I, also, make some profitable bets on matches that are 0-0 at HT. The reason being is that most of them don't end up that way.
My strategy of trading out has reaped dividends. On many occasions, had I stuck with the initial bet, until full time, I would have lost. The old adage of markets being driven by fear and greed is just as applicable to sports betting as it is to the financial markets. I haven't made my fortune but, a 25% return in my first full year isn't too bad. It beats bank interest for sure
I traded futures, and spot forex, for years. For me, Betfair trading on football matches is far less stressful as, I'm safe in the knowledge that I'm not going to get bad fills/slipped or, generally, ripped off by the scamming market makers and spread bettors that see retail traders as mugs to be taken advantage of. Particularly true in spot forex markets.
In conclusion, I would advise football traders to look at your open position(s) in terms of % profit and not in terms of £ made. If you've had a £50 bet and you're making a £5 profit, within 10 minutes, then take it. Where can you find a bank that will give you that return on your money? Going for bigger profits, is a recipe for disaster. As Brian Clough used to say, "it only takes a second to score a goal". That goal can be scored by the underdog just as easily as the hot favourite; your bet, which you could have cashed in for a profit, has now gone down the drain.
Good luck, to all footie traders here, for the forthcoming season.
Data Miner
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Betfair trading apart, which is essentially exploiting market situations rather than betting on football, I have the utmost admiration for anyone who can make a decent return from soccer game betting. But I wonder if anyone really can?
I can make horse race (spread)betting pay, placing my bet before the first race and then let it run until completion, never closing early. (as per my other posts)
Football match prediction though is rather an ongoing obsession with me, but in 30+ years of trying I've never developed a strategy which could stand the test of time. Short term glory ~ a season or two ~ I've seen a-plenty, but more than that and they seem to regress back to the mean.
Of course just because I can't figure it out that doesn't mean it's impossible, but all I ever hear is anecdotal evidence, and folks do love to massage their claimed abilities in this area.
Stock market trading, Betfair strategies with football & other sports, horse race betting, I've seen and witnessed hard evidence supporting successful profits, but football betting . . .
. . . I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for a proof
I can make horse race (spread)betting pay, placing my bet before the first race and then let it run until completion, never closing early. (as per my other posts)
Football match prediction though is rather an ongoing obsession with me, but in 30+ years of trying I've never developed a strategy which could stand the test of time. Short term glory ~ a season or two ~ I've seen a-plenty, but more than that and they seem to regress back to the mean.
Of course just because I can't figure it out that doesn't mean it's impossible, but all I ever hear is anecdotal evidence, and folks do love to massage their claimed abilities in this area.
Stock market trading, Betfair strategies with football & other sports, horse race betting, I've seen and witnessed hard evidence supporting successful profits, but football betting . . .
. . . I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for a proof
Trading Spaces
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Google Tony Bloom. He put £250m into Brighton FC, the money came from betting on every football match played anywhere. He has 40 people in Camden Lock watching every game doing a moneyball type statistical analysis so he knows who the strongest team are before kickoff and then bets £1m on every premiership game. He fell out with his partner who bought Brentford FC.
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