**amazing** Trading System - Based On Randomisation

the hare said:
What interesting conclusions you draw. Thats the sort of thinking that led ornithologists to conclude all swans where white :LOL:
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By the way belflan, the answer you gave was 100% correct :) and the equity curve below is the sort of thing you'd typically get when you rectify that particular problem :)
 

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the hare said:
What interesting conclusions you draw. Thats the sort of thinking that led ornithologists to conclude all swans where white :LOL:
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Not my conclusion, but that of ASC. I do agree with him, obviously.

And indeed, all swans were white until they discovered the black ones. There is no magic or secret in these things. These events are always rationalised in retrospect as if they could have been predicted. Like you posting something of interest. It hasn’t happened yet, but that doesn’t mean it won’t ever happen. And when it does, we can all sagely nod and agree we knew it would happen sooner or later. The potential was always there. As it is for all things. I think ‘all is known in advance’ was a misunderstanding (and clearly a phrase too far after the vanilla options debacle) of how things really are, as it should surely have been, anything and everything is expected, but we don’t know where or when.
 
TheBramble said:
And indeed, all swans were white until they discovered the black ones.
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Please tell me you didnt really mean to say that :LOL:

TheBramble said:
These events are always rationalised in retrospect as if they could have been predicted. Like you posting something of interest. It hasn’t happened yet, but that doesn’t mean it won’t ever happen. And when it does, we can all sagely nod and agree we knew it would happen sooner or later. The potential was always there. As it is for all things. I think ‘all is known in advance’ was a misunderstanding (and clearly a phrase too far after the vanilla options debacle) of how things really are, as it should surely have been, anything and everything is expected, but we don’t know where or when.
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There's hope for you yet :LOL:
 
the hare said:
Please tell me you didnt really mean to say that
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Of course I really meant to say that.

Existence in itself is insufficient to inform us of existence. We need evidence of existence to confirm existence.

Before black swans were discovered, they existed, but we had no evidence of their existence. You could have hypothesised as much as you liked on the probability of there being black swans, but they didn’t inform us of their existence until they were discovered. So they didn’t exist in the then current worldview.

Same as sentient life other than on this planet. It may exist out there somewhere, but we don’t have any evidence. So it doesn’t currently exist within our current worldview. If it is ever discovered we’ll certainly rationalise about how we could have predicted it, but for now, it doesn’t. (There’s a reasonable argument to challenge sentient life existing on this planet, but this is neither the time nor the place.)
 
the hare said:
By the way belflan, the answer you gave was 100% correct :) and the equity curve below is the sort of thing you'd typically get when you rectify that particular problem :)
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Interestingly, belfan did'nt give an answer. So would you like inform us of the answer ...or shall I ? :LOL:
 
counter_violent said:
Interestingly, belfan did'nt give an answer. So would you like inform us of the answer ...or shall I ? :LOL:
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Actually he did give an answer, but in private through the rep system. Its not my thread but I'm sure any contributions would be welcome (where it my thread I'd be hoping for lulz and piccies of decent looking totty)

I'm only posting to defend the reputation of random systems, and to provide a bit of balance to the usual crap that you need tight stops, massive targets and a 95% strike rate to earn a crust.
 
the hare said:
Actually he did give an answer, but in private through the rep system.

I know. This is the answer I was refering to.:LOL:

Its not my thread but I'm sure any contributions would be welcome (where it my thread I'd be hoping for lulz and piccies of decent looking totty)

I'm only posting to defend the reputation of random systems, and to provide a bit of balance to the usual crap that you need tight stops, massive targets and a 95% strike rate to earn a crust.
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So what is the point of saying belfan is 100% correct, when the readership has no idea why he is 100% correct ?
You really are a naughty bunny. I don't know about cats and bags. Cat and mouse more like !

Ok i've fulfilled on the lulz requirement.:)
Plenty of moving totty in this ( so should have exceeded pics requirement )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jb2sZu2ISsQ&feature=related
 
Last edited:
unfortunately your video was blocked in Malta on copyright grounds :-(

I posted these two equity curves because of that nuicence Bramble. hot_property kindly pointed out that taking 20 trades on brent during a trading session was "too many" and his valuable contribution was ridiculed.

I would suggest that its not the number of trades, but the duration for which those trades are held. This is particularly a problem if you are taking a random punt, which I am, and more amusingly so are most of the bunnies here by using their silly indicators and price action voodo

Regardless of strategy, profits are diminished by transcation costs, but there's a balancing act between selecting a high enough frequency to exploit your edge, and increased transaction costs. The trade duration in the first equity curve is far too short, the trade duration in the second equity curve is sufficient in order to capture some of the particular edge that we are trying to exploit.

If bramble wasnt such a bleedin nuicence I'd post some lovely 3D charts of trade duration v theoretical win rate, v volatility and people might learn something worth knowing. A lot of this stuff changes as you start introducing more complexity into the model, but you have to start somewhere.

This is one of the principle reasons new traders lose due to scalping, and why sites such a yours recieve financial incentives from the industry to promote this style of trading. I reccommend that dunces open a decent sample of trades at random and close em after N minutes. Then plot win rate against N. That should keep em out of mischief for a year or so.
 
the hare said:
If bramble wasnt such a bleedin nuicence I'd post some lovely 3D charts of trade duration v theoretical win rate, v volatility and people might learn something worth knowing. A lot of this stuff changes as you start introducing more complexity into the model, but you have to start somewhere.
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Don't use your fixation with me as an excuse not to do something. There's absolutely no logic in the connection you're trying to build.

However, just in case you do genuinely find my presence obstructive (a lot of blokes can’t pee with someone watching them) - I'll vow to keep out of this thread or any new thread you start if it’s to seriously address your ideas on random systems. You have the floor.
 
TheBramble said:
Well hold on my old son...

If you get 20 setups...trade 'em.

If you get just two...trade 'em.

That's the point.

Takes as much skill (more?) to avoid hitting trades you shouldn't as it does to hit the ones you should.

Number of trades aren't the issue. Quality of trade is.
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I guess so.
Either way, im the same as you today. Bakers dozen :)
 

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hot_property said:
RANDOMIZATION SYSTEM

Hi everyone and anyone, I am developing a system based on Randomisation where you place 2 orders in the market at a certain level and aim to capture a small amount. Has anyone tried anything like this before?

The results so far are amazing!
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It's working! Yes. But there is one problem. It works only on Demo.

Did you try it on live account?

What broker do you use?
 
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