Am i just lucky?

[karlino]

Hello
I have been on a demo Account trading, as i am a total newbie to this i,ve been studying certain chart patterns and been subscibed to certain newsletters,I have been on this demo Account now for about a month i have sort of following my own little plan , ie looking at bigger time frames and cross checking certain chart patterns,
I have done a total of 11 trades and i have won 10 of them Averageing a 30 pip win rate per trade, the one i lost just hit my stop loss by 1 pip then i noticed my original profit target hit , thought i was a bit unlucky on that one ,
Anyway my question is to anyone whos been trading for a while is this , would you class this as pure luck or do you think my plan and observation is the key for this , theres been certain days where i felt there was uncertainty in the markets and i didnt feel right about it so i left it.
your answers would be highly appreciated,
Thx Karl....

 

[jd1888]

Hello
I have been on a demo Account trading, as i am a total newbie to this i,ve been studying certain chart patterns and been subscibed to certain newsletters,I have been on this demo Account now for about a month i have sort of following my own little plan , ie looking at bigger time frames and cross checking certain chart patterns,
I have done a total of 11 trades and i have won 10 of them Averageing a 30 pip win rate per trade, the one i lost just hit my stop loss by 1 pip then i noticed my original profit target hit , thought i was a bit unlucky on that one ,
Anyway my question is to anyone whos been trading for a while is this , would you class this as pure luck or do you think my plan and observation is the key for this , theres been certain days where i felt there was uncertainty in the markets and i didnt feel right about it so i left it.
your answers would be highly appreciated,
Thx Karl....

What plan?

 

[redart]

Do you always have hard stops on your trades? So your average winning trades was 30 pips? How big was your loss on the losing trade? How many days did these 11 trades occur over?
Personally, id wait until you have, say, 100 trades under your belt...

 

[fihunts]

You won't have a true feel for your trading till you have demo'd for about 6 months and then started a live account. Live account open up a whole new can of worms. The emotional impact of trading "Real Money". Kudo's to your initial trades though.

 

[karlino]

What plan?

Hi,
well first of all my main plan is not to get greedy, and my main priority is to stick to the strategy i am using and not to deviate from it, , but i want lie i have often felt like doing another trade on my gut feeling , and i could have won more pips , but my plan is not to get greedy, just want to stick to the plan,
Cheers Karl

 

[karlino]

You won't have a true feel for your trading till you have demo'd for about 6 months and then started a live account. Live account open up a whole new can of worms. The emotional impact of trading "Real Money". Kudo's to your initial trades though.

Hi
thx for ur reply,
I can emagine it could be daunting with real money, think i will keep the demo going for a while yet
thx again Karl...

 

[karlino]

Do you always have hard stops on your trades? So your average winning trades was 30 pips? How big was your loss on the losing trade? How many days did these 11 trades occur over?
Personally, id wait until you have, say, 100 trades under your belt...

Hi
i,ve just checked with my trades from the first trade to the last trade it covered 9 days,
The trade i lost on was 25 pips I dont know whether this is good or not but i set a profit at 30 and a stop loss at 25 ? like i said i am pretty new to this ,
i will let you know how i get on once i reach a few more trades
Ths Karl...

 

[fihunts]

Hi
i,ve just checked with my trades from the first trade to the last trade it covered 9 days,
The trade i lost on was 25 pips I dont know whether this is good or not but i set a profit at 30 and a stop loss at 25 ? like i said i am pretty new to this ,
i will let you know how i get on once i reach a few more trades
Ths Karl...

I know many people follow a 2% stop loss rule or something around that neighborhood, which basically means that you set your hard stop loss to 2% of your account balance. You might also consider setting up a trailing stop of say 30 pips so that once a trade does start to go in your direction you can start to gather profits. You probably need to start reading up on risk and reward and find your bounds. I know this site and babypips.com both have tons of information for you to read. Babypips actually has a school put together for new traders of forex.

Good luck!

 

[karlino]

I know many people follow a 2% stop loss rule or something around that neighborhood, which basically means that you set your hard stop loss to 2% of your account balance. You might also consider setting up a trailing stop of say 30 pips so that once a trade does start to go in your direction you can start to gather profits. You probably need to start reading up on risk and reward and find your bounds. I know this site and babypips.com both have tons of information for you to read. Babypips actually has a school put together for new traders of forex.

Good luck!

Thx i will pop onto the site and see whats there
Thx afain Karl..

 

[jtrader1001]

Trailing stops would be a good thing to trial, takes away a bit of emotion and locks in profit- which is never a bad thing.

 

[karlino]

Trailing stops would be a good thing to trial, takes away a bit of emotion and locks in profit- which is never a bad thing.

Hi,
Thx for the info,
i will have to look at trailing stops , like i said i am new to this , i just put a profit limit and a stop loss on my trades,
thx again.

 

[BlackBison]

As long as you have fixed stops and are not 'averaging' (look this up if you don't know what it means), then it looks like you are doing fine.

Whether you can convert these demo results to live trading when the emotions start to kick in is another matter however.

Forget trailing stops. Don't listen to traders on a forum who are probably doing worse than you are. If you are using a roughly 1 R (risk/reward) and its working then I say keep doing exactly what you are doing.

I have a basic stop system like yours and whenever I try and get clever and avoid losses by trailing stops the trade mostly turns out much worse than if I had just left the stop in the original place.

If in another month or two you are still doing well start a small live account and see if you have what it takes.

I repeat, DO NOT change what you are doing or listen to other peoples advice if you are already doing well.

 

[karlino]

As long as you have fixed stops and are not 'averaging' (look this up if you don't know what it means), then it looks like you are doin
Whether you can convert these demo results to live trading when the emotions start to kick in is another matter however.

Forget trailing stops. Don't listen to traders on a forum who are probably doing worse than you are. If you are using a roughly 1 R (risk/reward) and its working then I say keep doing exactly what you are doing.

I have a basic stop system like yours and whenever I try and get clever and avoid losses by trailing stops the trade mostly turns out much worse than if I had just left the stop in the original place.

If in another month or two you are still doing well start a small live account and see if you have what it takes.

I repeat, DO NOT change what you are doing or listen to other peoples advice if you are already doing well.

Hi
thx for your input
I will look up on Averaging as you said, I seem to be following my chart patterns yesterday i had 2 trades and this morning they won at a 30 pip profit target i also had 1 trade this morning and it won at the same profit target 30 pip, thats a total of 14 trades so far with 1 loss , i dont want to get over my head with this , this is why i originally posted ( am i just lucky ) i hear so many comments on people doing ok with demo accounts then blowing away everything when they go live , most of them are blaming the broker , but i carnt see that because there are traders who are having success with it, I have been studying chart patterns for about a year before opening this demo account , but to be honest with you i havnt really looked at the money managment side of things , i will look at Averaging which you suggested thx for that i really appreciate it,

 

[coopster]

thx for your input
i originally posted ( am i just lucky ) i hear so many comments on people doing ok with demo accounts then blowing away everything when they go live

Keep in mind, for every guy that loses from his first trade onwards, statistically, there is a lucky chap who wins on his first trades. I would argue that the losing guy gets a better foundation on which to build as he knows how it feels to lose and can learn to deal with it sooner. Winning trades don't cause pain so although you've had a good run, your learning is in a way hampered.

I suspect there is no real plan behind your trading right now. Otherwise you wouldn't need to ask "am i lucky?" You would know from your plan that it is statistically going to produce the results you are getting. 10 trades is not a sample size on which to judge anything.

Good luck !

 

[coopster]

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[karlino]

Keep in mind, for every guy that loses from his first trade onwards, statistically, there is a lucky chap who wins on his first trades. I would argue that the losing guy gets a better foundation on which to build as he knows how it feels to lose and can learn to deal with it sooner. Winning trades don't cause pain so although you've had a good run, your learning is in a way hampered.

I suspect there is no real plan behind your trading right now. Otherwise you wouldn't need to ask "am i lucky?" You would know from your plan that it is statistically going to produce the results you are getting. 10 trades is not a sample size on which to judge anything.

Good luck !

Thx for ur reply Like i said earlier i dont have a plan , apart from not deviating from what i am allready doing, and because i am new to this , this was the reason why i was asking ( am i just lucky ) anyway seems you have answered my question by saying that i am just lucky , which is fine and like you said there is allways a loser on the other side,, thats opened my eyes a bit more and be more determined not to be the loser , so far 15 trades 2 losses, more importantly i have learnt what caused my 2 losses ,

 

[Jason101]

As long as you have fixed stops and are not 'averaging' (look this up if you don't know what it means), then it looks like you are doing fine.

Whether you can convert these demo results to live trading when the emotions start to kick in is another matter however.

Forget trailing stops. Don't listen to traders on a forum who are probably doing worse than you are. If you are using a roughly 1 R (risk/reward) and its working then I say keep doing exactly what you are doing.

I have a basic stop system like yours and whenever I try and get clever and avoid losses by trailing stops the trade mostly turns out much worse than if I had just left the stop in the original place.

If in another month or two you are still doing well start a small live account and see if you have what it takes.

I repeat, DO NOT change what you are doing or listen to other peoples advice if you are already doing well.

Good advice.

Trading is so personal to yourself. No one else can really advice you, only lead you down dead ends because they are not you. Your views on risk, and on market behaviour, holding periods, and on and on will be unique.

This forum can take you on wild goose chasses and only divert you from your path.
IMO - follow your strategy, stick to it, refine it, log it, analyse, it, and practice it.

Come back here either as a winner or someone who says I have tried, not succeeded, now I am looking for help.