All you need to trade is a horizontal line - TheRumpledOne

[Lee Shepherd]

Hi TheRumpledOne,

Great posts and some very good food for thought. Well done in helping people out and I would like to encourage this from everyone as it helps us all on this forum.

I'm just picking a particular post about not trying to find fault with the system and I would like to add this:

To try and find fault with anything is a way to improve the very existance of the said system and as such should be seen as a positive thing.
Let me explain: For example a security guard will constantly be trying to find (fault) ways of how he or any one else could break in to improve the security system.
A car manufacturer will constantly test it's cars to the extreme to improve performance.
Armies will simulate fights against themselves to improve dexterity.
A trader will constantly run examples of trades to improve the style of trading and so on.

This is and has always been done and will remain this way til the business/sportsman/manufactorer or trader is bust.

As nothing is perfect, everything and anything can be improved upon. Maybe not by you but by someone else.

You it is funny that so many people try to find a way that the Buy Zone won't work. They will spend hours, days, weeks, etc.. trying to prove it doesn't work.

If they would only realize that if they looked for how it could work for them, then they would be on the winning path.

I hear from people on almost a daily basis who are thanking me for showing them the Buy Zone because, for once in their trading careers, they are making money.

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,

Results today for Eur-Usd buy zone trades using oanda demo account.

+9, +8, +1, -6, -6, +1, -4, +1, +1, -6, +9, +1, +10

So thats 13 trades for +19 pips.

I haven't changed any of the parameters but I was quicker to move stops up to the +1 level.
This proved worth doing; the +1's would normally have been -6's.
Also, with R/R in mind I used a mental target of +8 to +12 pips in for exits.

The day seemed easier than yesterday. Looking back, I should have stopped on the third trade for +18 pips then I could have had the rest of the day off.

As has been mentioned by TRO, I think that setting a daily target would be worth a try, say +10 to +12 pips.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Todays Results for BZ demo on oanda, Eur-Usd:
0, +3, +9

That's +12 pips in 3 trades.

I closed the first two trades early because my entries were rubbish.
Target pips were again +8 to +12
Cheers,
Neil

 

[TheRumpledOne]

I thought JTrader wasn't going to post ?

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,

Today's results:

0, +2, +1, -2, -5, -5, -1, +1, -7, +9, -3,+5, -5, -3, +8, +6, -5, +8, +2

19 trades, +6 pips

Best Regards All,
Neil

 

[charliechan]

ALL YOU NEED TO TRADE IS A HORIZONTAL LINE

TRADING IS SIMPLE.

There is an entire industry built around making you think it is complicated.

All you need is a HORIZONTAL LINE on your chart to be a profitable trader.

I bet you doubt me, don't you?

AAPL computer closed at $162.00 today.

Put a HORIZONTAL LINE AT $162.50 , if the price of AAPL moves up to that line, BUY.

Put a HORIZONTAL LINE AT $161.50 , if the price of AAPL moves down to that line, SELL SHORT.

IT IS THAT SIMPLE!!

You can do this with other stocks, currencies, futures, etc.

Oh when to take profits? Where to place stops? Just DON'T BE GREEDY and use COMMON SENSE! Learn some money management.

My BUY ZONE strategy is based on HORIZONTAL LINES. Check it out.. IT'S FREE!

your h' line just equates to a level or price. so you are taking positions based on current price against another (reference) price (line). this is nothing new! everyone does it under the definition/act of trading.

your 'learn some mm', taking profit, etc questions are what makes the trader, not the lines, as the lines could be/are any entry criteria.

it is the mm, profit etc you need, not the lines imo.

 

[bansir]

your h' line just equates to a level or price. so you are taking positions based on current price against another (reference) price (line). this is nothing new! everyone does it under the definition/act of trading.

your 'learn some mm', taking profit, etc questions are what makes the trader, not the lines, as the lines could be/are any entry criteria.

it is the mm, profit etc you need, not the lines imo.

I Object!
You're on topic !
And I think I agree to a large extent at the moment FWIW.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

I Object!
You're on topic !
And I think I agree to a large extent at the moment FWIW.

Best Regards,
Neil

All done for today,
0, -7, +3, -3, +17

10 pips and 5 trades.

I'll put my BZ summary up for Feb tomorrow.

Have a good weekend all.

Neil

 

[bansir]

Hello all,
Here's my Buy Zone (DEMO) results for Feb.

Usual Eur-Usd with 6 pip initial stop and +/- 3 pip zones.
1 pip spread on Oanda.

PIPS

Net gain/loss -43.00

no. of losing trades 107.00
no. of winning trades 99.00
no. neutral trades 12.00
Total Trades 218.00

total loss value -541.00
total win value 498.00
Av. win, pips per trade 5.03
Av. loss, pips per trade -5.06

Pips per trade : -0.20

Not far off 50:50 split no. of winners to no. of losers.

I am going to run this again for March entering just one or two trades maximum per hour.
Also will use +10 pip daily target ie. stop for the day once I have +10 pips or better.

Target pips for each trade to be +8.
So :-
2 x consecutive winners = +16 ( or more ) and stop for the day.

1 x 8 pip winner and +2 or more pips available whilst in next trade then close trade and stop for the day.

Whipsaws

Two 'nailed on' spike outs in a row for -6, -6 means take a break, skip 1 to 2 hours.
Stops to be brought in tight as soon as possible once positive pips appear.

I'll keep going on here unless anyone objects.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[trendie]

Hello all,
Here's my Buy Zone (DEMO) results for Feb.

Usual Eur-Usd with 6 pip initial stop and +/- 3 pip zones.
1 pip spread on Oanda.

PIPS

Net gain/loss -43.00

no. of losing trades 107.00
no. of winning trades 99.00
no. neutral trades 12.00
Total Trades 218.00

total loss value -541.00
total win value 498.00
Av. win, pips per trade 5.03
Av. loss, pips per trade -5.06

Pips per trade : -0.20

Not far off 50:50 split no. of winners to no. of losers.

I am going to run this again for March entering just one or two trades maximum per hour.
Also will use +10 pip daily target ie. stop for the day once I have +10 pips or better.

Target pips for each trade to be +8.
So :-
2 x consecutive winners = +16 ( or more ) and stop for the day.

1 x 8 pip winner and +2 or more pips available whilst in next trade then close trade and stop for the day.

Whipsaws

Two 'nailed on' spike outs in a row for -6, -6 means take a break, skip 1 to 2 hours.
Stops to be brought in tight as soon as possible once positive pips appear.

I'll keep going on here unless anyone objects.

Best Regards,
Neil

nobody should object, and we are all rooting for you to come out on top of this.

my concerns: you are gunning for 10 pips a day, maybe even 16 pips, and stop.
BUT, you are bailing out if you hit 12 pip losses, made up of two 6 pips.
You seem to be weighting your system to be losing, if your daily goal is only 10 pips. (one 8 pipper and another 2 pips as per your post)

-43 pips in 1 month is pretty good, because you are learning to take losses, and not compounding your losses by doubling up etc, so you are acquiring the mindset to cut losses fast.
but overall, the system still seems mostly coin-flip territory.

also, to capture gains, it may be better to look at where your main gains are being made. instead of "day", consider euro and us-session, ie, two separate sets of transactions. if you hit losses in the euro-session, take a break until the US opens, just in case the volatility gives profits later in the day.

it may be worth checking whether 7-10am and 2-5pm gives you most of your profits, and the rest being essentially random.

I still think you are trading noise, and perhaps need a sense of the sessional biases, which, by necessity, disregards hourly break-outs, but perhaps respects previous days highs and lows.

there were some good ideas by ChowClown about the daily High and Low being set at around 4pm in the FX threads a while ago (I think we went as far as calling 3:55pm Chow O'clock), so might be worth eyeballing them on EURUSD, in case it gives you a sense of when the big moves may be over.

good luck for next month.

 

[bansir]

nobody should object, and we are all rooting for you to come out on top of this.

my concerns: you are gunning for 10 pips a day, maybe even 16 pips, and stop.
BUT, you are bailing out if you hit 12 pip losses, made up of two 6 pips.
You seem to be weighting your system to be losing, if your daily goal is only 10 pips. (one 8 pipper and another 2 pips as per your post)

-43 pips in 1 month is pretty good, because you are learning to take losses, and not compounding your losses by doubling up etc, so you are acquiring the mindset to cut
losses fast.
but overall, the system still seems mostly coin-flip territory.

also, to capture gains, it may be better to look at where your main gains are being made. instead of "day", consider euro and us-session, ie, two separate sets of transactions. if you hit losses in the euro-session, take a break until the US opens, just in case the volatility gives profits later in the day.

it may be worth checking whether 7-10am and 2-5pm gives you most of your profits, and the rest being essentially random.

I still think you are trading noise, and perhaps need a sense of the sessional biases, which, by necessity, disregards hourly break-outs, but perhaps respects previous days highs and lows.

there were some good ideas by ChowClown about the daily High and Low being set at around 4pm in the FX threads a while ago (I think we went as far as calling 3:55pm Chow O'clock), so might be worth eyeballing them on EURUSD, in case it gives you a sense of when the big moves may be over.

good luck for next month.

Thanks for your observations and feedback Trendie, much appreciated.
I see what you mean about the weighting of the system using the parameters I quoted.

If I take 2 straight 6 pip losses in a row then I just miss out the next 1 to 2 hours rather than quit for the day. The idea being that the market conditions will have changed and I will be clear of any congestion area which gave rise to the losses.

I will do some analysis by breaking the trades down into Euro and US sessions and by time periods; you have a good point, there may be session periods where the probability of whipsaws is relatively high.

I'll certainly take a look at ChowClowns forex notes as you suggest.

Just had a very quick glance at my log book and notice that I lost most pips on Mondays and Fridays. Here are the end of day pips for Mondays and Fridays:

Mon 4/2/08 -50
Fri 8/2/08 +19
Mon 11/2/08 +3
Fri 15/2/08 -30
Mon 18/2/08 -26
Fri 22/2/08 -39
Mon 25/2/08 -26
Fri 29/2/08 +10

What is it about Monday?
All the Wednesdays and Thursdays were winners.

Got to go, family calls!

Very Best Regards,
Neil

 

[bansir]

Hi Folks,
Buy Zone demo results for today:
+3, -3, -2, +7, -3, +5, +7

So thats 7 trades and +14 pips.

I was fairly brisk with moving the stops up.
The first 3 trades were shorts.

All done for today.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[Upcomingstockmaster]

Would this work

I am a ultra newbie.

The FTSE and Commodoties like Gold, usually go above and below the starting price in 1 day. Say i take the FTSE. On one platform, I buy, on an another I sell, at the very start of the day. I am confident that both bets will be profitable because it is almost guaranteed that the FTSE will go above and below the starting price. So I just keep an eye on the charts and when it goes below, the platform where i selled, i close and vice versa. Is there any instrument that will guarantee to go above and below the starting point in a day?!

 

[bansir]

I am a ultra newbie.

The FTSE and Commodoties like Gold, usually go above and below the starting price in 1 day. Say i take the FTSE. On one platform, I buy, on an another I sell, at the very start of the day. I am confident that both bets will be profitable because it is almost guaranteed that the FTSE will go above and below the starting price. So I just keep an eye on the charts and when it goes below, the platform where i selled, i close and vice versa. Is there any instrument that will guarantee to go above and below the starting point in a day?!

Hi UCS,
I've come across this idea a few times before.
Best way forward IMHO is to figure out a way to test your idea for yourself either using historical data or demo trade going forward. Log your results, every trade and study the charts.

The wheels may come off the system but it won't cost you anything and you'll learn loads.

Just out of interest, what time frame are you intending to use?

Very Best Regards,
Neil

 

[Upcomingstockmaster]

Hi UCS,
I've come across this idea a few times before.
Best way forward IMHO is to figure out a way to test your idea for yourself either using historical data or demo trade going forward. Log your results, every trade and study the charts.

The wheels may come off the system but it won't cost you anything and you'll learn loads.

Just out of interest, what time frame are you intending to use?

Very Best Regards,
Neil

Thanks for the response fellow trader, time frame - daily. I aim to close bets each day.

 

[bansir]

Thanks for the response fellow trader, time frame - daily. I aim to close bets each day.

Hi UCS,
Are you looking at spread betting this strategy?
If so, 'CapitalSpreads' and 'Tradindex' offer demo accounts that might fit the bill for you.
There are plenty of others available though; I'm just quoting the ones I've used.

Just a quick question re your idea:
Say you sell on the open and the price moves down giving a profit taking opportunity.,
when would you close this position? How would you decide to take profits?

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[Upcomingstockmaster]

================================================================

add an overlay called "support and resistance" (YES, the "and" must be in there cause theres about 100 of them) and if you use fibs and the s+r, it will stick out like a sore thumb !

"###auto pivot" is handy also, and if you get a confirmation between a fib, an s+r and one of the pivots, BET THE FARM !!

your little old dutch uncle who just dabbles in the forex market and enjoys being rich !

mp

enjoy and trade well

I didnt understand one bit of this. Autopivot? Fib? Support and resistance???

Hi UCS,
Are you looking at spread betting this strategy?
If so, 'CapitalSpreads' and 'Tradindex' offer demo accounts that might fit the bill for you.
There are plenty of others available though; I'm just quoting the ones I've used.

Just a quick question re your idea:
Say you sell on the open and the price moves down giving a profit taking opportunity.,
when would you close this position? How would you decide to take profits?

Best Regards,
Neil

My plan is to set a figure in mind, 10 pips,as I do not want to be greedy. Ive been watching commodoties, especially Gold for the last few days and its moved everyday at least 15 pips above and below the starting price. Its sometimes moved over 50 one way and only 15 the other. If i closed bet at 10 pips, and could have held out for 50, it would be a blow, but is also extremely risky. Too risky for my liking.

Im not 18 yet, but when I do turn, I think I may try this technique. I see potential. A few months till my 18th yet, so Im using Tradindex daily just to get more experience of trading... I know trading with real money is different as emotions come into play. Actually not a bad thing im not 18 yet because if I was, I would maybe be tempted to trade with real money and would probably lose it all as I have not had much experience:smart:

 

[bansir]

I didnt understand one bit of this. Autopivot? Fib? Support and resistance???



My plan is to set a figure in mind, 10 pips,as I do not want to be greedy. Ive been watching commodoties, especially Gold for the last few days and its moved everyday at least 15 pips above and below the starting price. Its sometimes moved over 50 one way and only 15 the other. If i closed bet at 10 pips, and could have held out for 50, it would be a blow, but is also extremely risky. Too risky for my liking.

Im not 18 yet, but when I do turn, I think I may try this technique. I see potential. A few months till my 18th yet, so Im using Tradindex daily just to get more experience of trading... I know trading with real money is different as emotions come into play. Actually not a bad thing im not 18 yet because if I was, I would maybe be tempted to trade with real money and would probably lose it all as I have not had much experience:smart:

Hi UCS,
You are 100% correct regarding emotions and real money.
I agree with mp6140, just stick to demo trading for now.
Get hold of a copy of "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy.
from your local library It will give you lots of good information.
Also check out posts here on T2W by dbphoenix.

Best Regards,
Neil

 

[TheRumpledOne]

All you have to do is (google) search and you can find just about anything you are looking for.

 

[bansir]

Hi All,
Results of BZ demo trading from Yesterday 4-mar-08

-4, -3, +4, -2
-4, -4, +5, -5
-6, -5, +16, -2
-5, -6, +1, -5, -2

17 trades and -27 pips

Best Regards,
Neil