AHA! is my analysis correct?

[dotcom]

EUR/USD - 30 Min. Chart. - Platform: NetDania

at about the 4th this month, it was ranging at pretty much the same for about 5 days, after that it went down and started ranging for another 4 days and went up on the 13th. Now it looks like it is going to be doing the same thing. When would you want to enter this trade.

As you being an experienced trader, would you wait for a few days for the next big move? if so, when will you know when to make that move?


everything is based on news right? i just have to wait and see what the news says in the next few days? if so, what will they have to say to determine the move?

I've noticed that it's about the same everyday, "the euro is down, the euro is up, Oh look the euro is down, wait whats this? the euro is up!"


so what do i do? actually, what would you do?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

price is sat dead on Weekly Pivot.

This is how I would play it (but these are not Trade recommendations, you make your own decisions)

1) there's no way to be certain of which direction will move, but price is ina tight consolidation, so there is a very good chance that it will move sharply, maybe even explode, once it does start to move.
So for now, remain without bias as per direction.
Draw a rectangle over the Highs and Lows of this recent period of consolidation.
Place a resting BUY STOP order above the box, and a resting SELL STOP below the box,
to try to catch any breakout that may occur.

2) Once price has moved away from the central Pivot area (whether trade 1 was successful for you or not), I would then be looking at fading price to return back to the Mean, ie back to the Pivot.
Attractive areas for that would be 1.2400 for a short.

On the Long side, I'd try first at 1.2233, if that doesn't hold, try again at 1.2178

3) you should then do what I told you to do on another thread - get stuck into reading and learning, instead of coming on here expecting to been spoon-fed all the bl00dy answers !!!!

 

[rathcoole_exile]

by the way, you asked "if your analysis was correct" ?

I didn't see any analysis from you, just gibberish

 

[PATrader]

so what do i do? actually, what would you do?

what exactly is your trading plan? Do you have one?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

hang on a mo' PAT, he's just peeling the paper wrapping off his wax crayons so he can draw it for you

 

[dotcom]

price is sat dead on Weekly Pivot.

This is how I would play it (but these are not Trade recommendations, you make your own decisions)

1) there's no way to be certain of which direction will move, but price is ina tight consolidation, so there is a very good chance that it will move sharply, maybe even explode, once it does start to move.
So for now, remain without bias as per direction.
Draw a rectangle over the Highs and Lows of this recent period of consolidation.
Place a resting BUY STOP order above the box, and a resting SELL STOP below the box,
to try to catch any breakout that may occur.

2) Once price has moved away from the central Pivot area (whether trade 1 was successful for you or not), I would then be looking at fading price to return back to the Mean, ie back to the Pivot.
Attractive areas for that would be 1.2400 for a short.

On the Long side, I'd try first at 1.2233, if that doesn't hold, try again at 1.2178

3) you should then do what I told you to do on another thread - get stuck into reading and learning, instead of coming on here expecting to been spoon-fed all the bl00dy answers !!!!

where do you get the numbers "1.2233, if that doesn't hold, try again at 1.2178" is that just an estimated guess?

And i have been, unless im reading the wrong books.

Recreational Reading: Rats To Riches
Core Study: Understanding Economic Development
Supporting Study: Financial Origami - How the Wall Street Model Broke


I know i should be studying analysis, i try and do so as much as i can on my down time. Any recommendations on order of study? Here is my next set.

Recreational Reading: The Disciplined Trader
Core Study: Portfolio Risk Analysis
Supporting Study: Issues in Economic Thought

Curse the process, not me...

 

[FringFX]

As you being an experienced trader, would you wait for a few days for the next big move? if so, when will you know when to make that move?
everything is based on news right? i just have to wait and see what the news says in the next few days? if so, what will they have to say to determine the move

it will initially sound cryptic, but the market action will show you the way.

not everything is based on news, although it can be a valuable tool or clue to help you make better trades. news-wise, an authority has to say something drastic or surprising which will catch the market off guard.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

where do you get the numbers "1.2233, if that doesn't hold, try again at 1.2178" is that just an estimated guess?

from many years of hard work, without short cuts

 

[neil]

where do you get the numbers "1.2233, if that doesn't hold, try again at 1.2178" is that just an estimated guess?

And i have been, unless im reading the wrong books.

Recreational Reading: Rats To Riches
Core Study: Understanding Economic Development
Supporting Study: Financial Origami - How the Wall Street Model Broke


I know i should be studying analysis, i try and do so as much as i can on my down time. Any recommendations on order of study? Here is my next set.

Recreational Reading: The Disciplined Trader
Core Study: Portfolio Risk Analysis
Supporting Study: Issues in Economic Thought

Curse the process, not me...

Similar to "Rags to Riches"

 

[rawrschach]

None of those books are relevant. Most of the econ you need to know is basic logic and anything to do with development is a waste of time.

I'd recommend:

The Art of Contrary Thinking by Humphrey Neill
Popular Delusions by Mackay
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Lefevre
How to Trade in Stocks by Livermore
A Treatise on Probability by Keynes

And yea most of the moves depend on news but you need to know which news. If you're getting news from tv you're too late esp if trading intraday. Longer term it might be ok but you won't be in at the start of a move. The 'news' you get from tv is always after the fact - no one was talking about the effect of drought on grains until after they went up etc.