barjon
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Hi Jon,barjon said:mark
let me guess.....
unusual for us to co-incide - i'm not in bg but i could have been at around 513 if i'd been about.
good trading
jon
Yup, that's pretty much it. There is a big clue in that picture though, which I observed in BP & SMIN and is why I exited them yesterday (phew!). The clue being that on the previous dips there was a steady recovery back to the main trend. This time, however, the recovery has stalled and the daily trading range until yesterday was narrowing. Volume was also lower than in past recoveries.
Now, from my studies the narrowing trading range and reducing volumes generally imply that a breakout is coming, one way or the other. As the order book was reasonably strong and rising, towards yesterday's EOD , I felt it was a reasonable bet that the breakout could come on the upside. It's still possible that this morning's downside breakout is a false one & could be follwed by a swift recovery. the trade is now so close to my stop that I may as well let it play out and see which way it goes. Odds are though that I will be stopped out. FYI I entered @ 514 (offer price)!
I'm still at 1/4 scale & refining my methods. Yesterday hit on some new tactics which look pretty effective, even for cases like this: invlolves using my new indicators to identify strongly trending stocks, then waiting for RSI to indicate a solid dip (or bounce for shorts) & finally waiting for RSI recovery, to indicate a return towards the major trend. This method would have kept me out of the "wrong" trades that I entered. It provides a pretty strong filter and should lead to fewer trades overall. We'll see how it goes. NB I'm also using basic price/volume patterns to confirm or contra-indicate what the indicators are saying.
I also want to study MACD more, as it should help to indicate whether a dip is more likely to be just a dip or whether it's a turning point. May also use it for swing trading rather than the position trading described above. For now, though, I'll concentrate on positions.
Good trading,
Mark
Hi Jon,barjon said:
No, I'm using my own indicator for this, based on rates of change of smoothed weekly closing prices.
Had some bad experiences with DI/ADX in the past so I'm a bit wary of that one but I know you've used it successfully.
What I think I've learnt over the last few months is that it's dangerous to be overreliant on any one tool/method/indicator.
Regards,
Mark
Tend to agree. That's why the only trade I've got open now is a short.techst said:
Signals aren't yet strong enough for me to open any other shorts though, yet. If we're seeing a real turn in the market, though, the short signals will get stronger. It usually pays to wait (unless you're day trading, of course).
I note, though, that CPI has failed to perform as you'd expected.
Cheers,
Mark
techst is certainly right in his comments but I am not sure (reading the recent posts) that any of us regulars are going against the trend. For sure during the last week I have very few longs and those that I have are small and apart from LMI are intraday where the strategy is different.
I too see nothing convincing on the horizon, in respect of longs that is!
As far as intraday trades are concerned my signals have been contradictory so I have not been active. I think I am going to stay relatively quiet for a few days until the indicators start confirming each other again..
My view over the next days is certainly on the bearish side!
Dave
I too see nothing convincing on the horizon, in respect of longs that is!
As far as intraday trades are concerned my signals have been contradictory so I have not been active. I think I am going to stay relatively quiet for a few days until the indicators start confirming each other again..
My view over the next days is certainly on the bearish side!
Dave
barjon
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mmm, i'm in the same boat. need a few days of bounce before the short signals start coming ((i've not the courage to go in immediately previous swing lows go). maybe some long signals as (if ) a bounce comes if it's soon, but they'll need to be treated with caution.
we have our guard up, techst
good trading
jon
we have our guard up, techst
good trading
jon
Sure Marben if every trade or setup went the way I expected then i'd be relaxing in Dubai in my new apartment on The Palm. To have a 100% record would be nice.
I just noticed that alot of the posts and trades were getting stopped out on the long side. The FTSE100 has broken it's 20SMA and also the 50SMA so we are in a short term bear market. It's a good idea to keep up with the overall market and classify moves using Dow Theory. The US markets have been in bear markets for quite a few months. But i do expect the markets to slow down and turning lightly positive.
I just noticed that alot of the posts and trades were getting stopped out on the long side. The FTSE100 has broken it's 20SMA and also the 50SMA so we are in a short term bear market. It's a good idea to keep up with the overall market and classify moves using Dow Theory. The US markets have been in bear markets for quite a few months. But i do expect the markets to slow down and turning lightly positive.
Hi Techst,
Hardly surprising that the longs get stopped out when conditions turn bearish! However, as I pointed out in an earlier post, no-one on this thread seemed to have predicted this turn of events BEFORE it happened.
I am curious about your remark that "US markets have been in bear markets for quite a few months". I attach a chart of the NYSE composite, showing 10, 50 and 200 day SMAs (though I usually use EMAs). Now my understanding is that the NYSE composite is one of the broadest based and most reliable of the various US indexes. From this chart (and earlier dates) it appears that there has been an uptrend since March 2003. There was a dip in this uptrend from Mar-Apr this year. There was also a downturn which started no earlier than early September. Whilst the 10 and 50d SMAs have been crossed, the 200d has not. You will also notice that in the Mar-Apr downturn, the uptrend resumed just as prices touched the 200d MA. Anyone going short at that point would have been badly burned.
Hence it seems too early to call a "bear market" just yet. Now there is a stronger chance of a major turn this time as the overall uptrend now seems to be losing "conviction". OTOH a sudden, sharp downturn at high volume (such as the one we've just seen) is more likely to slowly reverse than one that accelerates from a slow, low volume, start. Caution, though is undoubtedly advised.
Standing aside until the signals become clearer is probably the wisest strategy at the moment.
Regards,
Mark
Hardly surprising that the longs get stopped out when conditions turn bearish! However, as I pointed out in an earlier post, no-one on this thread seemed to have predicted this turn of events BEFORE it happened.
I am curious about your remark that "US markets have been in bear markets for quite a few months". I attach a chart of the NYSE composite, showing 10, 50 and 200 day SMAs (though I usually use EMAs). Now my understanding is that the NYSE composite is one of the broadest based and most reliable of the various US indexes. From this chart (and earlier dates) it appears that there has been an uptrend since March 2003. There was a dip in this uptrend from Mar-Apr this year. There was also a downturn which started no earlier than early September. Whilst the 10 and 50d SMAs have been crossed, the 200d has not. You will also notice that in the Mar-Apr downturn, the uptrend resumed just as prices touched the 200d MA. Anyone going short at that point would have been badly burned.
Hence it seems too early to call a "bear market" just yet. Now there is a stronger chance of a major turn this time as the overall uptrend now seems to be losing "conviction". OTOH a sudden, sharp downturn at high volume (such as the one we've just seen) is more likely to slowly reverse than one that accelerates from a slow, low volume, start. Caution, though is undoubtedly advised.
Standing aside until the signals become clearer is probably the wisest strategy at the moment.
Regards,
Mark
Attachments
"Hardly surprising that the longs get stopped out when conditions turn bearish! However, as I pointed out in an earlier post, no-one on this thread seemed to have predicted this turn of events BEFORE it happened."
That made me check back two days and I find that my post didn't get posted! I shorted BP on Wedneday afternoon and closed yesterday. Actually, I posted about that one on our sister thread "Swing and Position Trading, as well.
I closed as I thought it was getting near resistance and could not watch it. I'll be more careful next time- it's no good posting about closing successful trades if the openers aren't registered- smells of "trampa"!
I've several selections that are potential bouncers but, BP included but ,as Techst mentions, it may be against a downtrend that started several days ago.
Split
That made me check back two days and I find that my post didn't get posted! I shorted BP on Wedneday afternoon and closed yesterday. Actually, I posted about that one on our sister thread "Swing and Position Trading, as well.
I closed as I thought it was getting near resistance and could not watch it. I'll be more careful next time- it's no good posting about closing successful trades if the openers aren't registered- smells of "trampa"!
I've several selections that are potential bouncers but, BP included but ,as Techst mentions, it may be against a downtrend that started several days ago.
Split
Well guys, the hotel branch of HG. is going to be taken over. This could send the share price about 50p, before I can blink twice. How good is that, my only short position
I let you know how many times they chopped my head once the battle is over.
(Is this bad luck or what? Can't they announce this things after the opening to give the little bears the chance to deal with the tragedy in a decent way?)
Good trading,
Silvia.
I let you know how many times they chopped my head once the battle is over.
(Is this bad luck or what? Can't they announce this things after the opening to give the little bears the chance to deal with the tragedy in a decent way?)
Good trading,
Silvia.
theblackmamba
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silviaic - if its any consolation i short hilton as well
Hi Split,Splitlink said:
As I mainly trade positionally, I'm talking about turns2-3 weeks ago, not the last few days! techst claimed that the US market turned bearish MONTHS ago - I just don't see the evidence for that claim. I would, however, be v interested if there were clear warning signs that we didn't spot and could have.
Good call on the BP short!
Hi Silvia,
Commiserations on the HG short. It happens to all of us but hopefully not too often.
I'm afraid it's a pretty brutal world out here: neither brokers nor markets give any quarter to those caught on the wrong side of a trade. All you can do is get out of it.
Good trading all,
Mark
Hello again there,
I learnt a good lesson today: never try to sell at the very beginning of a disaster! I sold at 359 to see the price plunge to 347 and it keeps going down. 12 points to pay for a top-notch lesson...that was cheap!
Well, back to study those charts. I want me money back!
One thing I was thinking about. In spread betting you have this guaranteed stop loss. If you trade with real shares...how can you get something similar? (I think I got it while I was writing this, may be hedging with an option? No idea how these things work though). Sorry for getting a little bit out of topic. If you know more about this, can you pm please? Thanks.
Good trading guys!
Silvia
I learnt a good lesson today: never try to sell at the very beginning of a disaster! I sold at 359 to see the price plunge to 347 and it keeps going down. 12 points to pay for a top-notch lesson...that was cheap!
Well, back to study those charts. I want me money back!
One thing I was thinking about. In spread betting you have this guaranteed stop loss. If you trade with real shares...how can you get something similar? (I think I got it while I was writing this, may be hedging with an option? No idea how these things work though). Sorry for getting a little bit out of topic. If you know more about this, can you pm please? Thanks.
Good trading guys!
Silvia
