A VWAP system simulated performance

area's still to be addressed;

Were to place stops (if any)

1. based on chart S/R levels?
2. based on daily ATR?
3. based on smaller time frame ATR (say hourlys)?
4. no stop we're hedged?
5. if one position gets stopped out do you close one of the other position on the other side of the market?


Risk (% of account balance) to place on each trade

1. 1%, 2%, 3% or etc etc of account balance?
2. work out the max draw down of the system and use this to determin position size? ie size your position size based on the max peek to peek draw down of the system (risky?)er

It is very very rare if both trades diverge and hence the question of stop is not a major issue in pair trading ,, How ever if you are after a stop then 2 ATR on 10 MIN CHART is fine. Also you donot close one postion letting the other running . This is defeating the object,,

This is a very simple approach ( mean reversion ) and not quite the VWAP strategy . The actually VWAP strategy that I use myself is complicated but I have only passed on the simple frame work to our traders which as i said is a long term profitable strategy but people keep moving from one strategy to another looking for holy grail where the grail is right in front of their eyes

Grey1
 
if you wish and have time perhaps you like to trade it for 10 days instead of 5 days as few days does not really mean much ,, statistical approach works best in higher number of days.. VWAP trading is for intra day trading and not swing ,, so all pos closed @ close


grey1

Dear Grey1

Forward testing by belflan is very much appreciated. I would like to ask one thing-
what about position sizing? Same size for all stocks? Some stocks have higher ATR and hence lower size for them? This so and so cents profit/loss, say 245cents assume that all stocks were taken the same size, say 100 stocks.
thanks,..
 
Dear Grey1

Forward testing by belflan is very much appreciated. I would like to ask one thing-
what about position sizing? Same size for all stocks? Some stocks have higher ATR and hence lower size for them? This so and so cents profit/loss, say 245cents assume that all stocks were taken the same size, say 100 stocks.
thanks,..

Thanks for getting involved

yes position sizing also needs to be addressed, i would think with pair trading like this you would like to be neutal

therefore say $60K stock value short $60K stock value long?

the number of shares/stocks bought/sold would need to be worked out for each position?
 
It is very very rare if both trades diverge and hence the question of stop is not a major issue in pair trading ,, How ever if you are after a stop then 2 ATR on 10 MIN CHART is fine. Also you donot close one postion letting the other running . This is defeating the object,,

This is a very simple approach ( mean reversion ) and not quite the VWAP strategy . The actually VWAP strategy that I use myself is complicated but I have only passed on the simple frame work to our traders which as i said is a long term profitable strategy but people keep moving from one strategy to another looking for holy grail where the grail is right in front of their eyes

Grey1


Grey,

am i reading this right = if a stop was set on a long position and then hit you would then close one of the shorts positions right away to stay neutral
 
Dear Grey1

Forward testing by belflan is very much appreciated. I would like to ask one thing-
what about position sizing? Same size for all stocks? Some stocks have higher ATR and hence lower size for them? This so and so cents profit/loss, say 245cents assume that all stocks were taken the same size, say 100 stocks.
thanks,..


pos sizing is a must but lets keep things simple at this stage.. I want a test of a simple strategy by an independent trader to prove a point that

1) never throw away a perfectly winning strategy because it did not work in 5 trades or even don't accept it if it won you 5 trades one after another,,,, Game of probability is always LONGGGGGGGGGGGGGG TERMMMMMMMM just like TOSS UP,

2) the better trader you become the more efficient VWAP strategy becomes and the faster your equity curve grows.

3) you can personalis the strategy to cater for risk diversification by basket trading ,, You have no idea how much risk is lowered,, I tell you some thing NO ONE CAN TAKE YOUR MONEY IF YOU LEARN ABOUT RISK MANAGMENT


grey1
 
Hello

Interesting thread.

Presumably, on your IB scan at 7:00pm ish there would be numerous stocks which qualify for 5-7%, etc...or is that not the case ?
So which do you choose...just the high vol ones ? ...random ?...different sectors ?

Thanks

I'd quite like to build this up from the ground to a complete strat to trade US stocks (with the help of anyone who cares to help on this board) and then trade it live.

I know your full VWAP strat is detail on this board (probibly more than once) however building it up starting with a few simply rules will certain give me a better understanding

the simple rules i've been using so far:

1. @ approx 7:00pm Uk time
2. buy 3 stock that are -5% to -7% on day
3. sell 3 stock that are +5% to +7% on day
4. sell at or around close

can't be mush simpler than that

should also say i ve got the following filters on IB to sort stocks

stock price = $20 - $50
daily vol = 1.5M or greater
 
It is very very rare if both trades diverge and hence the question of stop is not a major issue in pair trading ,, How ever if you are after a stop then 2 ATR on 10 MIN CHART is fine. Also you donot close one postion letting the other running . This is defeating the object,,

This is a very simple approach ( mean reversion ) and not quite the VWAP strategy . The actually VWAP strategy that I use myself is complicated but I have only passed on the simple frame work to our traders which as i said is a long term profitable strategy but people keep moving from one strategy to another looking for holy grail where the grail is right in front of their eyes

Grey1


Hi grey,

This sounds like myself, i keep moving from system to system, but there is so many different opinions out there its hard to know what to listen too. I myself will always enjoy reading yours and trader333 posts as i know for sure your both real traders making real money.

What i would like to know is there anyone on this bb that trades grey1's methods day in day out making real money like grey because there does not seem to be unless im wrong. If not i feel that this is a shame as grey has put so much knowledge into this bb.

See grey, no dis-respect, but this is whats putting me off, that the fact no-one seems able to trade it the way you do, i mean if other traders on here who are far more knowledgable than me when it comes to trading can't get it, then ill have no chance.


jason
 
Hi grey,

This sounds like myself, i keep moving from system to system, but there is so many different opinions out there its hard to know what to listen too. I myself will always enjoy reading yours and trader333 posts as i know for sure your both real traders making real money.

What i would like to know is there anyone on this bb that trades grey1's methods day in day out making real money like grey because there does not seem to be unless im wrong. If not i feel that this is a shame as grey has put so much knowledge into this bb.

See grey, no dis-respect, but this is whats putting me off, that the fact no-one seems able to trade it the way you do, i mean if other traders on here who are far more knowledgable than me when it comes to trading can't get it, then ill have no chance.


jason

I don't trade all of Iraj's methods but I do use several (for which my thanks as always) plus some of my own.
Whether other people are using them now I don't know, althoug I do know two people who have used them in the past.
If they don't, then perhaps the problem is that he makes it all look so easy and people get disappointed if they can't emulate his performance.
These things take time to get used to and discipline to implement, so impo the best way initially is to trade on a live simulator until all the decision making becomes habitual. Like riding a bike, you'll keep falling off at the beginning but eventually you'll get it and it will just be automatic without thinking.

He can't teach you everything and he can't help you overcome your biggest obstacle - yourself. Only you can do that - and some say that trading is 80% psychology and 20% method.
And only you can know how you prefer to trade in terms of timescale etc.
And only you know how much time and effort you are willing to put in.

To re-iterate his recent idea, why not emulate some trades using the exercise he suggested in post 4 on this thread ?
You have to start somewhere and build on that experience rather than jumping from one thing to another.

"i keep moving from system to system".
If you have tried strats out, did you keep a full log of every trade and what happened, and then analysed the overall outcome to see whether you followed the rules ?
Are you saying that you did this for a good period and followed the rules and made no profit ?

Glenn
 
I don't trade all of Iraj's methods but I do use several (for which my thanks as always) plus some of my own.
Whether other people are using them now I don't know, althoug I do know two people who have used them in the past.
If they don't, then perhaps the problem is that he makes it all look so easy and people get disappointed if they can't emulate his performance.
These things take time to get used to and discipline to implement, so impo the best way initially is to trade on a live simulator until all the decision making becomes habitual. Like riding a bike, you'll keep falling off at the beginning but eventually you'll get it and it will just be automatic without thinking.

He can't teach you everything and he can't help you overcome your biggest obstacle - yourself. Only you can do that - and some say that trading is 80% psychology and 20% method.
And only you can know how you prefer to trade in terms of timescale etc.
And only you know how much time and effort you are willing to put in.

To re-iterate his recent idea, why not emulate some trades using the exercise he suggested in post 4 on this thread ?
You have to start somewhere and build on that experience rather than jumping from one thing to another.

"i keep moving from system to system".
If you have tried strats out, did you keep a full log of every trade and what happened, and then analysed the overall outcome to see whether you followed the rules ?
Are you saying that you did this for a good period and followed the rules and made no profit ?

Glenn




Hi glenn,

no i have not got that far yet, still trying to find the system that suits me first. I like greys methods but first i need to understand them fully before i can make any rules, mm etc. I know it don't happen overnight and that i need to put the work in, im willing to do all this but would be more encouraged if i could see others having success too as well as grey.


jason
 
tonights paper trades at around 19:00 uk time

shorts

ARO 25.95
AEO 23.10
SKS 20.50

longs

ACGY 21.12
BIG 19.06
CSIQ 16.19
 
Hello

Interesting thread.

Presumably, on your IB scan at 7:00pm ish there would be numerous stocks which qualify for 5-7%, etc...or is that not the case ?
So which do you choose...just the high vol ones ? ...random ?...different sectors ?

Thanks

thanks for getting involved

on IB you can scan max losers and gainers. there is also a filter function which i set to volume not less than 1.5M, max price $50 per share and min price $20.

This short lists the stocks.. tonight there was about 13 stocks +5-7% and to get 3 stocks -5-7% i had to widen the price max/min filter

if there is alot to chose from i pick at random.. i know nothing else about the stock fundalmenally or tech (i don't look at there charts)
 
thansk for your post

Hi grey,

This sounds like myself, i keep moving from system to system, but there is so many different opinions out there its hard to know what to listen too. I myself will always enjoy reading yours and trader333 posts as i know for sure your both real traders making real money.

this sounds like me to. and i bet it sounds like all other successful traders before they became successful. lets try and get over this and join the successful traders.. it won't happen overnight and not without hard work.

What i would like to know is there anyone on this bb that trades grey1's methods day in day out making real money like grey because there does not seem to be unless im wrong. If not i feel that this is a shame as grey has put so much knowledge into this bb.

regardless of who is or who isn't. lets see if we can, right here. on this thread. pick your stocks and paper trade next week. if it works lets build money/risk management around it, trade it live and make some dough... if it doesn't work, we will better traders at the end anyway.....

See grey, no dis-respect, but this is whats putting me off, that the fact no-one seems able to trade it the way you do, i mean if other traders on here who are far more knowledgable than me when it comes to trading can't get it, then ill have no chance.


jason

don't right yourself of to soon.
 
Last edited:
tonights paper trades at around 19:00 uk time

shorts

ARO 25.95
AEO 23.10
SKS 20.50

longs

ACGY 21.12
BIG 19.06
CSIQ 16.19

tonights trades closed at around 20.58 uk time

shorts

ARO 25.95 covered @ 25.59 = +36c
AEO 23.10 covered @ 22.93 = +17c
SKS 20.50 covered @ 20.55 = -5c

total for shorts = +48

longs

ACGY 21.12 closed @ 21.33 = +21c
BIG 19.06 closed @ 18.54 = -51c
CSIQ 16.19 closed @ 15.71 = -48c

total for longs = -79c

total for tonight = -31c
 
Running total (day 5)

Running total

= +218 cents

No allowance has been made for commissions

Allowance has been made for spread

strat looking good??? or is it???
 
weekly totals with position sizing

View attachment 31433

attached is a shread sheet showing the position sizes i would have used trading this strat within the last 5day days

account balance at start of week = $30,000

account balance at end of week = $29,679

loss for week = $321

this includes for commission costs & spread
 
Last edited:
I don't trade all of Iraj's methods but I do use several (for which my thanks as always) plus some of my own.
Whether other people are using them now I don't know, althoug I do know two people who have used them in the past.
If they don't, then perhaps the problem is that he makes it all look so easy and people get disappointed if they can't emulate his performance.
These things take time to get used to and discipline to implement, so impo the best way initially is to trade on a live simulator until all the decision making becomes habitual. Like riding a bike, you'll keep falling off at the beginning but eventually you'll get it and it will just be automatic without thinking.

He can't teach you everything and he can't help you overcome your biggest obstacle - yourself. Only you can do that - and some say that trading is 80% psychology and 20% method.
And only you can know how you prefer to trade in terms of timescale etc.
And only you know how much time and effort you are willing to put in.

To re-iterate his recent idea, why not emulate some trades using the exercise he suggested in post 4 on this thread ?
You have to start somewhere and build on that experience rather than jumping from one thing to another.

"i keep moving from system to system".
If you have tried strats out, did you keep a full log of every trade and what happened, and then analysed the overall outcome to see whether you followed the rules ?
Are you saying that you did this for a good period and followed the rules and made no profit ?

Glenn

Glen has an excellent point,, he says "80% psychology and 20% method ". I have sat next to a trader watching him closing a perfectly good trade with loss simply because he could not take the pressure and when I said to him why did you not simply reduce your position so you would feel happier and he said WELL, I am never lucky in this game . He also said he was not made for this game which I understood but disagreed.

I have asked an independent trader to TEST DRIVE A SIMPLE strategy for 2 weeks to prove a point and that is,, Stop looking for holy grail ,, I have already given you one other wise i would not post it here but remember if i tossed up and got 5 heads in a row this does not mean the odds of getting TAIL is ZERO ,,,,

Trading is game of chance and common sense,, in any game of chance you MUST understand risk and how to control it, VWAP strategy carries risk just like any other strategy but I have eliminated the market risk from the scenario so NEW TRADERS can start trading with a simple concept for first 12 month ,, After that you become more experienced you can stop pair trading and take directional trading which carries more risk but reward is higher . ( I know this guy who tried VWAP strategy with 1 loss and he left it because in his first attempt he failed to make few $$)

I have had over 30 traders including my mate Glenn in my house trading LIVE in front of them and when one of the traders asked me what happens if you lose to day i said I WONT LOSE NO MATTER WHAT ,, not because I am arrogant simply because I have worked hard to get to here,, Really hard and I don’t mean just 8 hours a day,, Working 8 hours a day only gets you as far as a plumber or electrician , You must not give up but you should listen to those traders who make $$$$ from the market and avoid sales men or other people who are on this BB who enjoy chatting about TECHNICAL ANALYSIS which is nothing more than POLITICAL ANALYSIS .. Most of these guys are MORE POLITICAL than TECHNICAL ,,,,

Any way ,,, if you want to make money you need to do the following ,,

1) Trade daily more than 1 stock at a time but with a total pos size which suits your personality and your capital ,, Big hurdle here to learn the concept of diversification and risk management but you must learn it ,, Wall street recruits his fund managers based on which applicant has better understanding of the risk concept ? you think I am wrong ?


2) Don’t expect a lot of return on your capital for the first year, Fight back and get your own money back if you lost a trade.. In your second year you can have a go at the market and make money ,,

3) stop following people who you know nothing about their performance even if they can TALK the TALK,,, you not going to make money following a monkey who is a market VICTIM himself,,,

4) watch the price action with no VOLUME ,, I don’t hate volume but I also know how volume gets fragmented and distributed by third party algorithms in modern trading to give a false impression of the true nature of the MOVE.. I really prefer not to get involved in this argument .

5) Watch CNBC try to isolate what moves the market and the strength of the move.. the sooner you get involved with CNBC the sooner you become a pro ,,,

6) divide your capital in 2 parts,, use 80 % for swing trading 20 % for intra day ,,,

SHORT the WEAK STOCKS LONG STRONG STOCKS for SWING ,,, do what ever you want to do with your 20% on intra day trading ,, your wealth eventually comes from your swing and not intra day trading ,,( in a few years then you can start intra day trading when you are more experienced ).. If you really really want to become a intra day trader then ignore above ,,


Grey1
 
View attachment 31433attached is a shread sheet showing the position sizes i would have used trading this strat within the last 5day days

account balance at start of week = $30,000

account balance at end of week = $29,679

loss for week = $321

this includes for commission costs & spread

if my calculations are correct? not at great 1st week for strat.. lets see how we go next week..
 
thanks for the words grey,

Ill take note and try to build some kind of plan around this, Ill also stop rumbling now and try out your exercise.


jason
 
Top