A day in the life of a real trader

[SquealTrader]

i exited the rest of my position earlier around 1.3626

 

[SquealTrader]

5 mins untill the biggest news ECB news announcement of the year. no point posting any strats today because no levels are going to hold due to the gravity of the announcment. Today is all fundamental. No technical. The risk for loss today is HUGE! Heres a tip. If ECB announce neg rates, and stop to sterilzation then just hit SELL on the eurodollar! Actaully don't. Those Algo's are lethal. Good luck everyone. Time to go through my check list. Charts on? Check. Volume up? Check. Knee jiggling due to anticipation - CHECK!

 

[SquealTrader]

Drahgi's gone mad. neg rates. new LTRO's. preparing for QE. Super Mario is back. Just Sell. Sell everything. Euro is headed for 132

 

[SquealTrader]

Yep Dow that euro started to get quite choppy after that sell. Rumor over the wires was that the Chinese stepped in and started defending the 135 level on the euro.

I can't believe we are back up almost flirting with 136 again. There is no way this euro can maintain this level with all this new policy they've announced. Then again its not what you don't know that blows your account. Its what you know for absolute certain which does.

Maybe a bit conservative but i will def try and catch a euro short around 13594. Very high risk trading these kind of conditions. Good luck!

 

[SquealTrader]

Can anyone please tell me why we are up at these levels?! This euro is insane. im still in but only by the skin of my teeth.

This is a great trade and i am really happy to be in it. Just nervous as to why we are at these levels

 

[SquealTrader]

Missed T1 by a tick. my stop is now at scratch. i do not want to be in this trade if we get back up to entry. If anyone has any idea why we are still up at these levels please enlighten me.

Who is buying this euro??

 

[SquealTrader]

Out at scratch. no more euro for me today.

 

[SquealTrader]

Yeah I heard an asian name and/or big option barrier was defending 3500. Sold down into it, then went long just above it - pity I didn't hold up the whole way. Am loving this vol though... amazing day. As for this move to 3600, agree it's crazy - ECB are gonna be p*ssed. Good luck with the trade.

Very impressive! you are a braver man than me! Well done mate, great trading

 

[SquealTrader]

Hi Guys - had a long weekend and now back to the charts. After Drahgi this euro retraced all its losses enough to scare the bears off before resuming its march back down to 135. I still feel this euro is going to settle around 132 and we should def see a breach of the year low at 13477 within the next 2 weeks. There is a possible short Euro on the retrace at S1 13561 but that could be a bit too aggressive for me. I'll post any strat ideas if the markets look interesting

 

[SquealTrader]

ok have been entered long bund here at 14508. I feel totally out of sync with bonds being positively correlated to equities nonetheless here is a great resistance turned support so makes sense to give it a go.

 

[SquealTrader]

Stopped at 144.95

 

[SquealTrader]

Good morning - trading has been quite intermittent this week. i have found equities extremely sluggish and this euro hasn't done much all week but things are looking to change. I'm still bearish post Drahgi and still have no idea why we have not tested the year low at 13477. I've been entered short Euro up here at 13580 with a tight stop above 13584. I have been waiting for this level since last thursday so lets see how it goes

 

[SquealTrader]

Ok t1 obtained. looking promising for T2

 

[SquealTrader]

Ok I'm closing out this euro trade now. Its been a good trade to end what i feel has been a very quiet week to trade. have a good weekend and here's to seeing some more action next week.

 

[SquealTrader]

Thanks D,

Ok bit late posting this but have been entered SP short up at 1931.25 and price has already had a good feel of my stop. I hate being in trades where price punches through my entry and immediately starts ranging in between entry and stop but unfortunately this is trading. Nasdaq at its highs also so let see if we've found the top....

 

[SquealTrader]

I'm also short euro with this almost exact trade i did on Friday... lets see what happens....

 

[SquealTrader]

Ok T1 reached on SP at 1926.50. that was a really tough hold. feeling releived. now lets see if this euro sell off as well

 

[SquealTrader]

Euro now testing my stop. its a great resistance level up here but have no confidence this will hold as these markets make no sense. why is the euro up here still? Guys if any of you know please enlighten me. Who is buying it? and why?

Never EVER short the euro.

 

[SquealTrader]

Yeah euro can be a real b*tch to trade these days lol
I heard the reason for the euro bid today were comments from the ECB that they'd hold back on easing measures for the next couple of months. However, to my mind it goes a bit deeper than that... if you cast your memory back to the last bid rate, there was very strong barrier protection around 1.35 and this line has held. Check out who was behind that and you'll have your answer...

Yep there is def someone protecting this euro - look at us, sounding like a couple of conspiracy theorists As with those ECB comments, of course they're going to sit back a wait a couple of months, they've introduced some serious new policy and they're going to wait to see how it pans out before doing more, why would anyone trade news like that which is so obvious?

Anyway have lost my patience and have closed this Euro and have closed it out for a mighty 1 tick profit. at least it covers the fees for this trade. can't complain tho, there was a point i was expecting to get stopped out.

Chat 2mw

 

[SquealTrader]

Right, day after FOMC and was hoping for a more hawkish tone. Not dovish and bullish. The fed's "commitment to maintaining a highly accomodative approach" didn't feel the currency markets with much confidence - and foreseeable low rates is good news for equities which is why we hit all time highs - again.

I have this obsession with being short this euro. The problem is the market doesn't want to go down. With the feds dovish tone and everyone aware that the ecb are not going to introduce more fwd policy for the next few months we could be looking at eur$ back to 140.

Its not what you don't know that can blow your account, its what you know for absolute certain that can. Time to change my opinion and get long this Euro i think.

It feels wrong based on my long term fundamental view but this is going to be my first long euro entry for a while. We have some US data coming out this afternoon so hopefully we can see this strategy get filled.