A Bit of Friday Fun ....

[Big_P]

Hi guys,

Just imagine I told you on a Monday morning where the FTSE was going to close on Friday.
And I got the prediction within a few points. You’d be pretty amazed, right?

You’d be even more amazed when I tell you that the correct prediction came from YOU.

Confused? Keep reading….

I've had this idea for a number of years on the principle of the ‘Wisdom of Crowds’.
(This theory states that crowds with a diversity of opinion can be very wise)

So, let’s say I ask you to speculate where you believe the FTSE will finish on a Friday afternoon. The same question goes out to every T2W member who wants to participate.

You DM me your answer over the weekend.

I will then work out the average of the answers. And I will post this number before the markets open on Monday morning.

Imagine that collectively, our average was very near to the actual close on Friday.
You might say it was luck.

Then we try it again a 2nd week. And a 3rd week ….. if we got close each week, I think we’d all start to get pretty excited.

Who wants to give this a go?

For those skeptical, I tried the same experiment nearly 10 years ago on this forum.
https://www.trade2win.com/threads/the-wisdom-of-crowds-experiment.132984/

13 people guessed and the average came within 4 points of the close.

For a bit of fun, I’d love to try it again. Who’s in?

Send me your predictions over the weekend.

Your prediction is for the close of the FTSE on Friday 5th February.

I’ll publish the number of guesses and the average on Monday morning.

Happy guessing!

Big P

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Well, if we can rustle up a dozen or so regulars to participate for at least a month, then count me in for the fun of it.

But I suspect, as the last attempt died unceremoniously after just 1 round, that this is a non-starter.

I hope I'm wrong, it would be fun.

 

[Big_P]

Well, if we can rustle up a dozen or so regulars to participate for at least a month, then count me in for the fun of it.

But I suspect, as the last attempt died unceremoniously after just 1 round, that this is a non-starter.

I hope I'm wrong, it would be fun.

Yes it was odd, the interest died the first time round even though the first prediction was only 4 points out...

Maybe it's just me , but I thought that might have created a buzz!

Anyway, it would be great to get this going again .... it could be easy money for us all if the experiment works.

Come on everyone, one click of a button - send me those DMs!

 

[postman]

Hi guys,

Just imagine I told you on a Monday morning where the FTSE was going to close on Friday.
And I got the prediction within a few points. You’d be pretty amazed, right?

You’d be even more amazed when I tell you that the correct prediction came from YOU.

Confused? Keep reading….

I've had this idea for a number of years on the principle of the ‘Wisdom of Crowds’.
(This theory states that crowds with a diversity of opinion can be very wise)

So, let’s say I ask you to speculate where you believe the FTSE will finish on a Friday afternoon. The same question goes out to every T2W member who wants to participate.

You DM me your answer over the weekend.

I will then work out the average of the answers. And I will post this number before the markets open on Monday morning.

Imagine that collectively, our average was very near to the actual close on Friday.
You might say it was luck.

Then we try it again a 2nd week. And a 3rd week ….. if we got close each week, I think we’d all start to get pretty excited.

Who wants to give this a go?

For those skeptical, I tried the same experiment nearly 10 years ago on this forum.
https://www.trade2win.com/threads/the-wisdom-of-crowds-experiment.132984/

13 people guessed and the average came within 4 points of the close.

For a bit of fun, I’d love to try it again. Who’s in?

Send me your predictions over the weekend.

Your prediction is for the close of the FTSE on Friday 5th February.

I’ll publish the number of guesses and the average on Monday morning.

Happy guessing!

Big P

The ‘Wisdom of Crowds’theory has been around for a very long time as to whether it works or not is open to debate. It kind of depends on your point of view, here's another one.

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"​

...is an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841.


We have done this before, for a number of years this competition ran.

S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2016 with PRIZES!

Get ready folks 2015 is in its death throes and 2016 is bearing down on us! It is time for the next instalment of the trade2win "SPX-500 Weekly Market Close Forecast Competition". :clap: I will be your master of ceremonies for the coming year so expect a little levity and traditional podium...

www.trade2win.com

Good luck with your experiment.

 

[Big_P]

The ‘Wisdom of Crowds’theory has been around for a very long time as to whether it works or not is open to debate. It kind of depends on your point of view, here's another one.

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"​

...is an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841.


We have done this before, for a number of years this competition ran.

S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2016 with PRIZES!

Get ready folks 2015 is in its death throes and 2016 is bearing down on us! It is time for the next instalment of the trade2win "SPX-500 Weekly Market Close Forecast Competition". :clap: I will be your master of ceremonies for the coming year so expect a little levity and traditional podium...

www.trade2win.com

Good luck with your experiment.

Hi Postman,

I hadn't seen the competition you'd run before .

Out of interest, did you take a look at the average of the guesses? Was it anywhere close to the final result?

You had a similar thing going , but I wanted my experiment to have a collective goal rather than it being a competition.

I'm not sure it will work but let's see if it gets any interest.

Big P

 

[J Livermore]

Hi guys,

Just imagine I told you on a Monday morning where the FTSE was going to close on Friday.
And I got the prediction within a few points. You’d be pretty amazed, right?

You’d be even more amazed when I tell you that the correct prediction came from YOU.

Confused? Keep reading….

I've had this idea for a number of years on the principle of the ‘Wisdom of Crowds’.
(This theory states that crowds with a diversity of opinion can be very wise)

So, let’s say I ask you to speculate where you believe the FTSE will finish on a Friday afternoon. The same question goes out to every T2W member who wants to participate.

You DM me your answer over the weekend.

I will then work out the average of the answers. And I will post this number before the markets open on Monday morning.

Imagine that collectively, our average was very near to the actual close on Friday.
You might say it was luck.

Then we try it again a 2nd week. And a 3rd week ….. if we got close each week, I think we’d all start to get pretty excited.

Who wants to give this a go?

For those skeptical, I tried the same experiment nearly 10 years ago on this forum.
https://www.trade2win.com/threads/the-wisdom-of-crowds-experiment.132984/

13 people guessed and the average came within 4 points of the close.

For a bit of fun, I’d love to try it again. Who’s in?

Send me your predictions over the weekend.

Your prediction is for the close of the FTSE on Friday 5th February.

I’ll publish the number of guesses and the average on Monday morning.

Happy guessing!

Big P

Your idea does sound good for experimental value, but I’ve heard over the years that the market does whatever it has to to fool the most number of people. It doesn’t matter what size trader you are or how experienced you are either. In speculation, the majority can not all make profits.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Hi Postman,

I hadn't seen the competition you'd run before .

Out of interest, did you take a look at the average of the guesses? Was it anywhere close to the final result?

You had a similar thing going , but I wanted my experiment to have a collective goal rather than it being a competition.

I'm not sure it will work but let's see if it gets any interest.

Big P

Well, seems we didn't get much interest.

Would have been fun, but there simply aren't enough active share traders on here to participate.

Shame, really, but never mind, maybe next year....

😞

 

[Big_P]

Well, seems we didn't get much interest.

Would have been fun, but there simply aren't enough active share traders on here to participate.

Shame, really, but never mind, maybe next year....

😞

Yep, I didn't get one person's guess, haha!

I thought about offering $100 to the closest guess but I'm not sure I'm that desperate to find out if the experiment works.

Never mind, I'll try again in another 10 years !

 

[counter_violent]

Yep, I didn't get one person's guess, haha!

I thought about offering $100 to the closest guess but I'm not sure I'm that desperate to find out if the experiment works.

Never mind, I'll try again in another 10 years !

Hold on a min.

Why not contact Sharky to see if he is willing to restart the S+P 500 comp again. It's worth $500.00 annually to the players, so there's your incentive. I'm sure previous organisers would get you up to speed with the spreadsheet and the rules.

We used to have a lot of fun with that thread and it did have an average feature that occasionally won gold.

 

[Big_P]

Hold on a min.

Why not contact Sharky to see if he is willing to restart the S+P 500 comp again. It's worth $500.00 annually to the players, so there's your incentive. I'm sure previous organisers would get you up to speed with the spreadsheet and the rules.

We used to have a lot of fun with that thread and it did have an average feature that occasionally won gold.

Good idea ... I'll see if I can get Sharky onboard.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

Good idea ... I'll see if I can get Sharky onboard.

Dashes off to locate life rafts on hearing rumours of S&P iceberg dead ahead.

🚢

 

[postman]

Hi Postman,

I hadn't seen the competition you'd run before .

Out of interest, did you take a look at the average of the guesses? Was it anywhere close to the final result?

You had a similar thing going , but I wanted my experiment to have a collective goal rather than it being a competition.

I'm not sure it will work but let's see if it gets any interest.

Big P

There was a spreadsheet (maybe still is ask @Atilla) which showed the guesses, the average and a weighted average based on how successful the guesser was. The averages were included in the competition and people invariably beat them (but not the same person consistently).

S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2017 with PRIZES!

Ladies & Gentlemen, we have the final week's forecast, in the Gregorian calendar year of 2017 - S&P 500 weekly competition. CV leads the charge of the bulls with a thumping 24 pip rise to close the index for the eoy. On the other far far side of the calls, we have Oscar Reed who stands alone...

www.trade2win.com

 

[Big_P]

There was a spreadsheet (maybe still is ask @Atilla) which showed the guesses, the average and a weighted average based on how successful the guesser was. The averages were included in the competition and people invariably beat them (but not the same person consistently).

S&P 500 cash weekly competition for 2017 with PRIZES!

Ladies & Gentlemen, we have the final week's forecast, in the Gregorian calendar year of 2017 - S&P 500 weekly competition. CV leads the charge of the bulls with a thumping 24 pip rise to close the index for the eoy. On the other far far side of the calls, we have Oscar Reed who stands alone...

www.trade2win.com

View attachment 295597

Excellent, thanks for sharing Postman.

 

[Atilla]

Hey guys, I think the stars have aligned. Really delighted to see this thread and the interest at kicking it off. In all sincerity I was thinking about starting this up again as my life style becomes pedestrian.

I'll start getting the spread sheet back together for the remainder of 2021.

I'll also approach @Sharky to ask if he'll do the honours with the Amazon prize vouchers again?

So provisionally to kick off 8th of Feb, Monday. Start sharpening pens, dusting off your charts, polishing your crystal balls, black boxes, voodoo dolls or what ever works for you.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Big_P,

Just read your pm and yes agree totally with your suggestion.


In fact, it is a great idea and it's the same one Pat and I shared couple of years back when the S&P 500 Cash - competition was on.

We called it the PAW. Pat and Atilla's Weighted index which as you describe uses the forecasts of all participants based on the scores they have accumulated for accuracy.

The weighting was calculated based on the number of forecasts they made and their respective scores received on how close they were to Friday's market close.

Weighted Average forecast was also included alongside all the other forecasters.

Sadly, although PAW took some medals (gold, silver, bronze) for coming closest to Friday's close, it didn't shine like some of the other forecasters. However, that could be because some forecasters were making outlier forecasts in trying to get a gold medal and 4 points etc. Might sound complicated but it wasn't.

I will open up a new thread and post the rules as before and we can kick start it this week.

 

[MasterOfCoin]

I will open up a new thread and post the rules as before and we can kick start it this week.

Great !

Sooner the better, as this thread is now well off-track.

Then we can continue our discussion on the potential of guesstimating the FTSE closing levels in peace.