90% get it wrong?

I've said this before.The answer is within ourselves.If we are strong enough to believe this and able to do something about it then i think we're getting some where.
 
Skimbleshanks, So RE your post above, did you actually have
the b*lls to go long then or you speaking from hindsight ?

Imran
 
In my opinion on why the failure rate is so high has something to do with ones ability to learn, change the approach and effect that new strategy with discipline. You must know in advance what features of price action/volume and indicator signals will tell you to enter and exit a trade.. if you cant write this down in advance and stick to it as you trade a market.. your looking to blow your account very quickly. some do all this and then ignore thier written strategy whilst in the trade... thats a big no no

Paul
 
From the posts I've read on this site I think the main reason a lot of people fail is over leverage and lack of complete strategy. They focus on when to enter too much and give little regard as to when to hold and when to close - both when the position is in profit and loss.

It's interesting the comments on over-reliance on indicators - this is something I did in the past. However I still use indicators in my trading strategy - but they are used as a guidance more than a decision to trade. However I shall be looking at whether indicators are really any good in a new thread in the next week or so - I shall be back-testing them extensively to see what sort of drawn downs & margin requirements you can expect if you decide to trade an automatic system from indicators.
 
The main reason people fail is that it is not our natural instinct to lose money,we are not programmed for it. So we act totally erationaly in response.Lets face it we only have to beat a 50/50 chance in order to win. If you add knowledge and experience then the odds should be in our favour. Some of the posts in the thread have been spot on when stating keep it simple. If there was an indicator that worked alone then it would have been discovered by now. But no we keep trying to reinvent the wheel and eventually give up, just like the millions who have tried to beat the roulette wheel which was invented hundreds of years ago.
 
Hi all,

I would say that the success/failure rate in trading is no different than most other lines of work.

In any area of business, you get people who are not that good at what they do, you get average players, and then you get the top performers. Not every professional footballer earns 100k a week - those in the lower divisions earn a pretty average wage. In a big sales company, not every rep earns top commission - some scrape by on their basic salary every month.

Most business start-ups fail within 3 to 5 years - exactly the same as trading.

Trading is a business like any other and needs to be operated properly and professionally for it to succeed. 80-90% of traders may fail, but that's not that shocking when you compare it to business start-up figures.


Thanks

Damian
 
Sakhi Mander said:
They`re offering shares with global resource, and green machine - 12 month minimum hold excellent returns etc.. just wondered if anyone had any info on them
Click to expand...

I think you'll find if they haven't already they'll probably end up in the thread "Boiler Rooms Scams" at some point in the future.....
 
When you boil it all down, at any random point and time price will either go up or down, you have a 50/50 chance of being right, that’s better odds than any casino. It’s how you manage your money/trades that separates the winners from the losers.

If you sharpen your edge and gain better odds, it still requires trade management to stay profitable.

It doesn’t matter which direction price takes as long as it moves, the thought of being right or wrong is a trap. Trade an if/then strategy. If price goes here then I do this, if price does not comply simply stop and reverse out of it.

Most traders can not mentally discipline themselves and their emotions to adhere to even the simplest of trading fundamentals.
 
I'm sure a high percentage of people fail in their attempts to be pro footballers or golfers but there seems to be an obsession with traders, money and failing. The fact is that Trading is much more of a dedicated pursuit than people give it credit for. A large percentage of that 90-95% will be people who feel that it's easy money and subsequently lose. Then there are those who get lucky, then end up losing more. Some will continue the challenge, while some will go looking for their next get rich scheme.

Another point is this: I started Trading by Spreadbetting Uk Shares and didn't have much of a clue. I am in now in Spreadbetting terms, a 'loser' in their statistics. However, I decided to go further and got into FX and direct access Trading so I don't think that people should focus too much on the statistic. Especially if it's a newbie using it to scare them out of trying.

In fact, anyone who starts off by reading and exploring sites like this are going to be in a much better position of joining the 5-10%. When I started out I wanted to make it happen quickly but it took a few years (as people on here advised) despite me thinking I could do it quicker. Some people can be born or raised with certain talents which may make them more of a 'pro' than others. But someone starting out shouldn't use other people failing as a prerequisite for them being able to make a career out of this.
 
The failure rate is 99.99%

..and widening.
As the internet grows more people have access to trading.
Yet are not brought up and educated in traditional styles, and techniqes.

The forex market is absorbing more un-skilled talent then any other industry right now, and this is in a field where there is no room for error.


DT
:)
 
Depth Trade said:
The failure rate is 99.99%

..and widening.
As the internet grows more people have access to trading.
Yet are not brought up and educated in traditional styles, and techniqes.

The forex market is absorbing more un-skilled talent then any other industry right now, and this is in a field where there is no room for error.


DT
:)
Click to expand...

99.99% has made losts before they started to win.
But that's a part of the learning process I guess.

I'm sure more then 0.01% overwon this step.
At least I know several.
 
Skimbleshanks said:
Don't get too hung up on my statement about the 90% - it was a figure of speech primarily.

I trade ES intraday, and there's no Level 2 on ES as it's an electronically traded emini future.

I use a 5 min chart, and a 10 minute chart. On those two charts I have price bars and volume bars. Every bar is the same colour. That's it.

I don't use any 'man-made indicators' such as RSI, CCI, MACD, bollinger bands, moving averages, ADX, etc. I just use the price bars themselves to indicate to me what is happening and what I would expect to happen.
Click to expand...


I wish I could trade like that. But I don't think I'll ever be able to.

I day trade the Dax and the YM only. Nothing else.
I spread bet. I trade for a living. It's my only source of income.
I never look at volume, but I use a selection of indicators including emas, adx, MACD, Stochastic etc. I never try to pick tops or bottoms, I'm content with a chunk in the middle. I use a 5 and 15 min chart side by side and only take trades in line with the 15 min chart, but using the 5 min for entry. The indicators provide the entry and the exit for my trades. I do about 3-4 trades per day. People say indicators "lag", and indeed they do. However, I have discovered a way to use them to get exact entry points giving no "heat" whatsoever. This has taken me 4 years.

People such as yourself who can trade purely using price and volume I regard as true traders. I need my crutches. Without my indicators I'd be utterly useless!!
 
geldmeister said:
When you boil it all down, at any random point and time price will either go up or down, you have a 50/50 chance of being right, that’s better odds than any casino. It’s how you manage your money/trades that separates the winners from the losers.

If you sharpen your edge and gain better odds, it still requires trade management to stay profitable.

It doesn’t matter which direction price takes as long as it moves, the thought of being right or wrong is a trap. Trade an if/then strategy. If price goes here then I do this, if price does not comply simply stop and reverse out of it.

Most traders can not mentally discipline themselves and their emotions to adhere to even the simplest of trading fundamentals.
Click to expand...

I agree. I've started using real money to trade recently... it is the only way to learn. And what I have learnt is that I only really lose when I let my discipline slip. I am currently day-trading and some trades go my way, others don't, but the key is knowing when they are not going your way and getting out quickly.

My account is currently down 10%. The majority of my trades are disciplned and either make money or only cost me a little money, however 3 trades where my discipline slipped (and analysing my actions I was almost behaving like a compulsive gambler) are what has caused my account to be down 10% the other trades have clawed back my losses.

In my humble opinion it is people who are able to be self critical and analyse why they are taking certain actions that will succeed in trading, your strategy is almost irrelevent. The other thing that is key is being well capitalised, I know it has been said before, but if I had a much smaller account I may have blown it by now and walked away learning nothing. Having the security that although in pure dollar terms 10% of my account is a fair chunk of money (for me anyway) it is still only 10%... i've had fund managers that had larger equity drawdowns with my money..
 
*JDR* said:
I agree. I've started using real money to trade recently... it is the only way to learn. And what I have learnt is that I only really lose when I let my discipline slip. I am currently day-trading and some trades go my way, others don't, but the key is knowing when they are not going your way and getting out quickly.

My account is currently down 10%. The majority of my trades are disciplned and either make money or only cost me a little money, however 3 trades where my discipline slipped (and analysing my actions I was almost behaving like a compulsive gambler) are what has caused my account to be down 10% the other trades have clawed back my losses.

In my humble opinion it is people who are able to be self critical and analyse why they are taking certain actions that will succeed in trading, your strategy is almost irrelevent. The other thing that is key is being well capitalised, I know it has been said before, but if I had a much smaller account I may have blown it by now and walked away learning nothing. Having the security that although in pure dollar terms 10% of my account is a fair chunk of money (for me anyway) it is still only 10%... i've had fund managers that had larger equity drawdowns with my money..
Click to expand...

I’ve heard it said that there’s only one reason why traders win or lose, and it stares back at them in the mirror.

If we want to succeed in this business we have to be brutally honest with ourselves and understand our strengths and weaknesses, with the focus on the later, rooting out, disciplining our bad habits…… and yes we all have them.

It doesn’t really matter how you define your edge, if you consistently make money, what you will find is that the key to success more of a self issue, trading isn’t a team sport, it’s an individual task you against the market and most of the time you against yourself.

fwiw,

gm
 
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