£8000 bank,1,2,3 or 4 methods?

pboyles said:
Google 'Montague Pitmann scam' to see a UK equivalent, FSA regulated, big office in the city, scammed lots of people and disappeared.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I might look them up when I have nothing to do. We got scammed recently by dell. The chipped power supply for my sister's laptop died, i think because of expiration of a certain length of time. I regularly chat to kids in the US about car related stuff, and their cars crap out left right and center. What I am getting at is that profit motivated 'fraud' is systemic in that country. So one more in the investment arena is not out side of expectation.
 
OK, so realistically I'd probably be better off buying 2nd hand cars or stock from China and selling on for a 20% profit or so, rinse and repeat etc....
 
julianthompson said:
OK, so realistically I'd probably be better off buying 2nd hand cars or stock from China and selling on for a 20% profit or so, rinse and repeat etc....
Click to expand...

20% profit is an extremely excellent business. It wouldn't matter what kind of business that is.
 
20% can be great if it's every month for a reasonable amount but 20% profit on £1000 over a year wouldn't pay the bills ;-)

I'm suprised to be honest at the general tone of the replies I've had so far, if the trading industry is so full of charlatans and disappointment then why are there so many posts on this forum and other forums where people 'appear' to be making money, all be it sometimes erratically. ???
 
If you put £1000 away for a 20% annual gain when you got your first job at 18. By the time you retire at 65, your money would have grown to 5.2 million. Have you seen many posts on these forums that people made 5.2 million ? Instead you read them to be very happy making 10 pips. How much is 10 pips worth anyway, I still have no idea ?
 
very true but sadly I'm a good 20+ years from 18 and didn't put away £1000 at 20% so have to work harder now ;-)
 
The advice given here has been actually been very good, I get the feeling that you seem disappointed that you didn't get the advice you wanted to hear.
 
Not disappointed in the advice specifically but disappointed in the low number of replies / opinions considering the number of people on the forum.

Also, to be completely honest, quite surprised that on a 'trading' site the responses I had were generally of the 'don't bother', 'it takes years to learn' etc....

I can understand that for some things (learning to be a doctor, dentist etc) but surely technology has moved some things on (quick example: friend of mine yesterday asked me to help re-decorate his home, I agreed and took a 'gadget' paint-sprayer that I bought (and used once previously) for about £200 or so. He was very anti me using my 'toy' as he put it as he's a professional tradesman and learnt 30+ years ago that a paint brush is the best tool...long story short, I painted 2 bedrooms and a dining room, walls and ceilings in the time it took him to do 1 bedroom and he had to admit my 'finish' was better than his (no brushmarks!)...... so for the cost of £200, the application of some braincells I was able to 'beat' (or improve upon) a skilled tradesman.

Now obviously that's a specific situation but is the community here really of the opinion that you have to spend years studying, learning and trading to 'qualify' to make a reasonable return..?

Has technology really not helped the trader? Do none of the EA's mimic the seasoned professional trader?

If no EA can replicate reasonably consistently the efforts of a successful trader then that suggests that such a trader works more on intuition than logic, on feelings more than rules, in which case surely there's no real difference from trading to going to a casino and watching a roulette wheel; wait until the same colour has come up 2 or 3 times and then bet the opposite colour because the probability of the same colour consistently repeating reduces with every spin.
 
'consistently repeating' is the key part there, on any one spin the probability is 50% (excluding the 0 or 00 dependant on wheel) and whilst this is true for every subsequent individual 'spin', as part of a series the probability does reduce statistically in much the same way that selecting a winning horse in a 5 horse race is technically a 20% probability issue (excluding form etc) but selecting 10 such winning horse in concurrent races increase the odds (probability) of doing so to a far greater number.
 
Look at it another way, of all the people who read this thread how many of them told you what you were planning to do would work?

Your disappointment at not being able to follow your plan will be a lot easier to bear than the disappointment of losing 8k plus.



julianthompson said:
Not disappointed in the advice specifically but disappointed in the low number of replies / opinions considering the number of people on the forum.

Also, to be completely honest, quite surprised that on a 'trading' site the responses I had were generally of the 'don't bother', 'it takes years to learn' etc....

I can understand that for some things (learning to be a doctor, dentist etc) but surely technology has moved some things on (quick example: friend of mine yesterday asked me to help re-decorate his home, I agreed and took a 'gadget' paint-sprayer that I bought (and used once previously) for about £200 or so. He was very anti me using my 'toy' as he put it as he's a professional tradesman and learnt 30+ years ago that a paint brush is the best tool...long story short, I painted 2 bedrooms and a dining room, walls and ceilings in the time it took him to do 1 bedroom and he had to admit my 'finish' was better than his (no brushmarks!)...... so for the cost of £200, the application of some braincells I was able to 'beat' (or improve upon) a skilled tradesman.

Now obviously that's a specific situation but is the community here really of the opinion that you have to spend years studying, learning and trading to 'qualify' to make a reasonable return..?

Has technology really not helped the trader? Do none of the EA's mimic the seasoned professional trader?

If no EA can replicate reasonably consistently the efforts of a successful trader then that suggests that such a trader works more on intuition than logic, on feelings more than rules, in which case surely there's no real difference from trading to going to a casino and watching a roulette wheel; wait until the same colour has come up 2 or 3 times and then bet the opposite colour because the probability of the same colour consistently repeating reduces with every spin.
Click to expand...
 
julianthompson said:
Now obviously that's a specific situation but is the community here really of the opinion that you have to spend years studying, learning and trading to 'qualify' to make a reasonable return..?

Has technology really not helped the trader? Do none of the EA's mimic the seasoned professional trader?

If no EA can replicate reasonably consistently the efforts of a successful trader then that suggests that such a trader works more on intuition than logic, on feelings more than rules, in which case surely there's no real difference from trading to going to a casino and watching a roulette wheel; wait until the same colour has come up 2 or 3 times and then bet the opposite colour because the probability of the same colour consistently repeating reduces with every spin.
Click to expand...

Technology really has helped the trader-- I would think many people are too young to remember the days pre-PC or at least when trading on a DOS system where you could actually watch the PC drawing the chart pixel by pixel!

The spreadsheet and modern charting software are brilliant tools -- it's so easy to forget what life was like before them. However, perhaps you are falling into the popular trap of believing that technology (especially computers) can solve everything. Always remember that PCs and programs are humanly created and we are a long way off from the time when self creating artificial intelligence becomes a practical and useful widespread reality.

I go back to a point in my previous post-- learn and understand the basics and then use the technology to exploit your knowledge and skills. I use a system which is pretty simple (to the human eyeball looking at the chart) but I would have difficulty in converting it to an EA. I suspect that you may be expecting too much. It isn't strictly necessary to spend years and years learning how to trade -- with the right information (and believe it or not it is mostly all here on this forum), some basic primer trading books and diligent application you can be successful. What is rarely pointed out is that some people are perhaps just not cut out for trading-- although we can't all be brain surgeons or top golfers, we can with diligent application and average IQ become excellent para-medics or play a respectable Round.

When I started trading there were no Internet forums and all I knew was that if you bought Maggie Thatcher's gas privatisation shares you could sell them for more than what you paid. I learnt a long hard and laborious way to trade but it did instill the basics -- often by trial and error! You are in the fortunate position of being able to circumvent much of the nugatory donkey work.

My humble recommendation is therefore just to pick any decent system that works e.g. Capt Currency Three Ducks and persevere with it, ensuring you practise good money management, risk management and thoroughly debrief all your trades making sure you know why they were good or bad and how you will cope with the situation next time it arises. You will find this ar$e-numbing, hard work, boring and successful. It aint rocket science but just remember how much routine practice, simulation and repetitive training and procedures are practised by the astronauts before a successful mission - I think trading is very similar in that respect.
 
julianthompson said:
Now obviously that's a specific situation but is the community here really of the opinion that you have to spend years studying, learning and trading to 'qualify' to make a reasonable return..?
Click to expand...

I can offer you a better rate of return. I am contracted on behalf of the Duke of Westminster, Britain's largest individual landowner. His Grace is interested in selling shares in his toll bridge company. This will make high guaranteed returns by charging commuters a small toll to access many of London's busiest bridges, which are owned in part by the Grosvenor Estate on 999 year leaseholds. After my commission, 8k will buy you 50 shares in the company, 100 pounds par value. Please contact me by PM for further details. I am investing my own money too. I expect the shares to triple within two months due to fees collected from London commuters. The shares will soon be oversubscribed so act fast.
 
julianthompson said:
'consistently repeating' is the key part there, on any one spin the probability is 50% (excluding the 0 or 00 dependant on wheel) and whilst this is true for every subsequent individual 'spin', as part of a series the probability does reduce statistically in much the same way that selecting a winning horse in a 5 horse race is technically a 20% probability issue (excluding form etc) but selecting 10 such winning horse in concurrent races increase the odds (probability) of doing so to a far greater number.
Click to expand...

I'll give you 2:1 odds that if you flip a coin ten times you will not get exactly five heads and 5 tails.
 
ccclarette658 said:
I can offer you a better rate of return. I am contracted on behalf of the Duke of Westminster, Britain's largest individual landowner. His Grace is interested in selling shares in his toll bridge company. This will make high guaranteed returns by charging commuters a small toll to access many of London's busiest bridges, which are owned in part by the Grosvenor Estate on 999 year leaseholds. After my commission, 8k will buy you 50 shares in the company, 100 pounds par value. Please contact me by PM for further details. I am investing my own money too. I expect the shares to triple within two months due to fees collected from London commuters. The shares will soon be oversubscribed so act fast.
Click to expand...

Another piece of advice, please don't listen to this guy. If it's too good to be true, then it certainly is.
 
Don't post often but threads like this are infuriating.
If beating the markets was as simple as buying an EA or system then there would be no markets as we know it. Everyone would be winning which would mean eventually no one could win!
Good news it you don't need to be glued to a screen the whole time. All markets move in cycles and trend as fundamentals adjust. Learn about economics and what makes markets move. And I don't mean knee jerk reactions to news I mean long term unfolding macro themes. Learn what makes companies perform well and look for fair priced shares with a good competitive advantage.

It's easy to get into the trap of thinking well all these city workers and hedge funds can do it so can I. However as pointed out most people in the 'city' earn their money facilitating the markets with commissions and skimming a bit off here and there. Some successful traders or hedge funds employ mechanical systems but they usually use complicated algorithms and spend huge sums of money researching inefficiencies. These are then exploited until they are gone then they rinse and repeat. We simply do not have the resources and computing power for this.

Others concentrate on macro themes and shifts in the underlying economics of countries and companies to take advantage of large moves in the markets usually of a longish time frame. Possibly using basic technical concepts along the way to help with timing. I suggest if you really want to invest your own money you go down this route. Often the simplest ideas offer huge opportunity. Think also about overreactions and special situations. For example have a look at BP chart around the time of their big oil spill, or stock indices before and during the Iraq war.
 
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