80/1 Lib Dems For the most seats

[Lord Flasheart]

Betfair are currently offering 80/1 about the Lib Dems having the most seats at the next election. This represents amazing value. Given the current political enviroment there are reason why I bieve this is no 80/1 shot
1) People who have previously voted tory but voted Labour at the Last election will remember why they switched and will not want the Tories back.
2)Historically Disgruntled Labour voters dont switch to vote Tory
3)The Lib Dems will come out of this best as they have fewer Mps to do wrong.
4) Some Tory voters will switch to other right wing parties decreasing their vote.

Sounds far fetched,maybe.What would happen if the Sun came down in favour of the LibDems.The lib Dems is the only party they havent slated in the past two years Think of it like trading,once the momentum starts building it would soon snowball. They were 250/1 a while ago. Anyway Ill take as much of 80/as I can get.Only managed to get £30 worth so far.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Betfair are currently offering 80/1 about the Lib Dems having the most seats at the next election. This represents amazing value. Given the current political enviroment there are reason why I bieve this is no 80/1 shot
1) People who have previously voted tory but voted Labour at the Last election will remember why they switched and will not want the Tories back.
2)Historically Disgruntled Labour voters dont switch to vote Tory
3)The Lib Dems will come out of this best as they have fewer Mps to do wrong.
4) Some Tory voters will switch to other right wing parties decreasing their vote.

Sounds far fetched,maybe.What would happen if the Sun came down in favour of the LibDems.The lib Dems is the only party they havent slated in the past two years Think of it like trading,once the momentum starts building it would soon snowball. They were 250/1 a while ago. Anyway Ill take as much of 80/as I can get.Only managed to get £30 worth so far.

There's a line between a good value punt and plain stupidity, and you've found it.

 

[MrMiyagi]

i'd lay it now and back it later when the odds go back to 250+

 

[0007]

1) People who have previously voted tory but voted Labour at the Last election will remember why they switched and will not want the Tories back.
2)Historically Disgruntled Labour voters dont switch to vote Tory
3)The Lib Dems will come out of this best as they have fewer Mps to do wrong.
4) Some Tory voters will switch to other right wing parties decreasing their vote.

Recent polls don't support this. You could of course be right but I won't be putting any money on it at 80/1. Lib Dems always seem to hit resistance at around 20% - I'll believe it when they break through 28%.

 

[Gumping]

Recent polls don't support this. You could of course be right but I won't be putting any money on it at 80/1. Lib Dems always seem to hit resistance at around 20% - I'll believe it when they break through 28%.

True, true.

80/1 is expensive for something that won't happen.

I expect Lib Dem to benefit, but not THAT much.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Skill leverage you clearly have no understanding of true value. There only needs to be 10 pt swing for there to be a hung parliament.The Lib dems always have a min of about 20% of vote. The odds are 80/1,are you trying to tell me that one in every 80 times,given recent events that they wouldnt get most seats. 80/1 represents 1.25 % of the book which means with carefull laying of Tory and Labour I can have a 100% book with one horse running for me. I will however remember your kind comments

 

[Black Swan]

Recent polls don't support this. You could of course be right but I won't be putting any money on it at 80/1. Lib Dems always seem to hit resistance at around 20% - I'll believe it when they break through 28%.

Julian nails it with his reference to the mainstream media which will never be allowed to come onside with the Lib Dems. For those that really hold the power this would represent (what to them would be) total anarchy, there's far too much at stake. As the Lib Dems grow in popularity watch the mainstream whittle them back down; we can only have the red or blue pill, we're simply not allowed to contemplate a third option.

This week the mainstream media have shown that apparently, according to various polls, the UKIP and BNP gaining favour but, who'd have thunk it, the Lib Dems share of the vote has stayed the same....yeah right...in truth the three parties have probably nigh on similar percentages right now with the Tories perhaps 5 points up, Cameron is not a plausible reactionary vote, the Libs are and in Cable and Clegg have the best two man team available but if they get too close the media will turn on them, citing that the'yre a bit wacky, it's a wasted vote, been out of power too long to know what to do....shame but that's how it is and as a nation we dont have the guts for a fight or even a velvet revolution do we?

 

[Skill Leverage]

I'll lay you 10,000 to one on bets over $1k that NFP doesn't come out >=400k this month. As such a proponent of theoretical value, I'm sure you'll have no problems taking this bet; in the past 135 months NFP has been above 400k 4 times. I am laying ridiculous odds here from a theoretical standpoint; in reality however it's as good as money in the bank. There's a reason why the bookies are the bookies, and the suckers are the suckers my friend; bookies understand the difference between 'good value' and a sure thing.

Do you honestly believe that your political reasoning is better than that of the combined research and analysis of the major bookmakers? Please.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Firstly I never said they were going to win,i said it was good value.Secondly the book is the most important part for any bookmaker.If you do not understand how that works then you have absolutely no right to make comments about what and what isnt true value.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

oh and if you feel that way theres plenty for you to lay at 80/1(most of it mine) on betfair. Go on take it all

 

[Skill Leverage]

Firstly I never said they were going to win,i said it was good value.Secondly the book is the most important part for any bookmaker.If you do not understand how that works then you have absolutely no right to make comments about what and what isnt true value.

So you're betting on something that you don't think is going to happen, just because it's good value? If a guy in Dover was charging 5 quid to lob yourself off the cliffs, but a guy a few hundred metres down would let you do it for 4, would you pay the man and swandive off, content in the knowledge that you got a good deal?

Yes, I have no idea what 'the book' is, nor to be honest should I be required to, since this doesn't relate to General Trading in any way shape or form.

 

[arabianights]

julian, by saying you'll have as much as possible at 80/1 aren't you just telling me take 100/1 if I ever see it and front run you constantly?

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Its exactly the same as in trading, you look for trades that offer a good R/Reward ratio.
At 80/1 if it happens once every 40 times then its a 2/1 R/R. Hope you get the point now. ALL I AM SAYING IT IS GOOD VALUE as defined by the reasons I have stated.I stand to win a lot and lose nothing,how can you possibly find fault in that.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Ill take as much of 80/1 as I can get

Sold.

 

[Skill Leverage]

I stand to win a lot and lose nothing,how can you possibly find fault in that.

It's 80/1 Julian, not 80/0.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Yes Arabian but this site is about sharing,if you find 100/1 let me know, I can lay loads at 85 on betfair.

 

[Skill Leverage]

I'll give you 75/1 on anything up to twelve pounds.

EDIT: Arabian I know you're going to try and take me on that, just for the one in a million chance that you can die laughing in my face

P.S Was it you that was pretending to be Paul Rotter in the FI chat room today? It had a whiff of your work

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Now why would I be tempted by your odds.Go to Betfair and take my cash at 80, and ill top it up when it runs out.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

ok Ill put 12 at 75.Put it up now and Ill take it,hurry up im off to bed,got to be up early to look for some inside bars

 

[Skill Leverage]

I'll have my secretary fill in the necessary paperwork; excuse me while I apply some nail varnish and sit on my hand for half an hour.