2nd of September was the day!

[montmorencyt2w]

so explain the record contraction in the money supply? oh wait you cant coz your talking nonsense! so many people on this forum talk a good game yet they cant see past the blinkers of "printing money = omg inflation"

have you actually checked the cpi lately?

Well whatever the cooked figures say, the real cost of everyday living has risen and will continue to rise, and that's just the things we know about.

E.g. Vat will revert to its previous level in 2010. Council tax bills will almost certainly go up by more than official inflation (yet again) in April. Unregulated rail fares are due to go up significantly. From 1 January 2010 Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold will revert back to £125,000. BOE base rate may be 0.5% but rates for personal loans (if you can get them) are significantly higher. Bank overdraft rates are phenomenal. (High rates may be theoretically deflationary, but for anyone already in debt, this represents an increased cost of living). People have been warned that energy prices are going to increase significantly.


The money supply may be theoretically decreasing, but to the man in the street, his pound isn't going as far for the same stuff, and to him, that's inflation.

 

[anil12345]

gold UNDERvalued?

so explain the record contraction in the money supply? oh wait you cant coz your talking nonsense! so many people on this forum talk a good game yet they cant see past the blinkers of "printing money = omg inflation"

have you actually checked the cpi lately?

something to consider -
Real Gold Price High, CPI Inflation Indexed :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

gold has hit over $2300 in "real" terms back in the 1980s. so gold currently $1000 has a hell of a lot more to go!
watch this space...

 

[poborsky]

so explain the record contraction in the money supply? oh wait you cant coz your talking nonsense! so many people on this forum talk a good game yet they cant see past the blinkers of "printing money = omg inflation"

have you actually checked the cpi lately?

Keynesian economics are dead. When gold edges past the old high it wont turn back, ever. This is the eye of the storm.

 

[SAINT]

After I mentioned the Barrick hedges, I came across this article which talks about a potential bear raid on Barrick, to aquire the stock on the cheap:Barrick Gold Ripe for Bear Raid :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
(Bit long-winded)

"The Barrick reputation has been severely tarnished. Its share price might soon reflect an abandonment, and sell at a further discount as its entrails are examined with more scrutiny. This rotten ABX stock might be due to plumb toward the $30/share price soon. It is NOT a gold mining firm. It is a gold suppression financial subsidiary to Wall Street with an under-developed capital-starved mining business. It is a gold suppression tool, whose viability has been thoroughly assaulted, gutted, and molested. Due to excessive hedging, the company has been hollowed out financially, unable to properly exploit even the deposits on its own properties. It should have raised money to develop mines, and thus exploit the rising gold price. Instead, it raises money to cover its errors in a disastrous strategy. This is precisely an example of what my analysis has called ‘Inelastic Supply’ that describes the phenomenon of a higher gold price resulting in less gold output. We see it in spades with Barrick, the posterboy in gold mining corruption and incompetence."

 

[N Rothschild]

Well whatever the cooked figures say, the real cost of everyday living has risen and will continue to rise, and that's just the things we know about.

E.g. Vat will revert to its previous level in 2010. Council tax bills will almost certainly go up by more than official inflation (yet again) in April. Unregulated rail fares are due to go up significantly. From 1 January 2010 Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold will revert back to £125,000. BOE base rate may be 0.5% but rates for personal loans (if you can get them) are significantly higher. Bank overdraft rates are phenomenal. (High rates may be theoretically deflationary, but for anyone already in debt, this represents an increased cost of living). People have been warned that energy prices are going to increase significantly.




The money supply may be theoretically decreasing, but to the man in the street, his pound isn't going as far for the same stuff, and to him, that's inflation.

err the cost of borrwing money has nothing to do with inflation

 

[N Rothschild]

something to consider -
Real Gold Price High, CPI Inflation Indexed :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

gold has hit over $2300 in "real" terms back in the 1980s. so gold currently $1000 has a hell of a lot more to go!
watch this space...

so in real terms gold was over twice as expensive as it is now back in the 80's? shoulder that tell you something lol

 

[zerozero]

Keynesian economics are dead. When gold edges past the old high it wont turn back, ever. This is the eye of the storm.

Let me play Devil's Advocate for just a second in order that I might learn something.

Before 1032, the all time record high was 850, right?

So when gold surpassed 850 and hit 1032 it took several months, but eventually it melted back down to 850 and even beyond to 680.

Why cannot that happen again when (and I say when) gold reaches say, 1200?

See my point?
Thanks.

 

[N Rothschild]

nice 27$ pull back in gold..god that must hurt baptist

 

[GladiatorX]

nice 27$ pull back in gold..god that must hurt baptist

Doubt he cares. Hes making money, thats the point; Not trying to be right.

 

[N Rothschild]

thats makes 0 sense. so you don't have to try and be right to make money?

 

[GladiatorX]

thats makes 0 sense. so you don't have to try and be right to make money?

I guess your right

 

[The Baptist]

Trader Not Investor

Doubt he cares. Hes making money, thats the point; Not trying to be right.

Hi Gladiator,

You have it right there, I was out after the evening star day.

I just have limited appetite for clarifying all exits as they 'Yah Boo' squad come out, and interpret it as moral victory's in the arguement to be 'right'. 'Right' that long term full time traders realise, is what sits in your trading account not arguments 'won'. Keyboard warriors who 'lose', never concede such, they go back to lurking or disappear completely.

I have been on the boards for 5 1/2 years and seen this behaviour before - I had similar 'emotional' antoganists at the last gold (2 yrs back) set up with a guy called 'gugaplex', needless to say we don't here much from him anymore.

He was also arguing Gold down then at $550 - 650 in a rather flippant manner.

I am well prepared to get back in when the market re-asserts, which this 'long run' break will do imv, sooner than many realise. If it didn't I wouldn't, and I would be wrong and be trying elsewhere unhindered, as I have strict criteria for entry, simple as that.

Elsewhere I have posted my new entries whilst shares and commodities take a breath.

Awaiting AUD break move in the next day or so against JPY.

Keeping very close watching remit on the energies as well as precious metals, interested to see what tomorrow brings in fact. A lot of Intraday fight backs to todays lows.

Well done for working out what's important, many just show up for a row? They don't however post P&L's or trades?

Good luck.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Awaiting AUD break move in the next day or so against JPY.

Do you think the AUD is ready to resume its uphill struggle with the USD?

 

[The Baptist]

thats makes 0 sense. so you don't have to try and be right to make money?

It made sense to me - Over my trading career, I have been right and lost money, I have been wrong and inadvertently made money.

I have made money countertrend Intraday and lost money trading with the trend despite being right but for bad pyramiding and money management and impulsive trading.

You place to much emphasis on being 'right'.

You are an 'Ego Trader', if you are a trader at all. Which is why you pop out on Gold down days and otherwise Lurk.

What matters is good implementation of a pre thought Plan with Money Management rules in the long run, this will lead to profitability.

Scalpers regularly have no view, as do range traders. Execution of plan and profitable trading is some but not an exhaustive list of the ingredients required.

But you know this! because you are always right...

 

[N Rothschild]

Hi Gladiator,

You have it right there, I was out after the evening star day.

I just have limited appetite for clarifying all exits as they 'Yah Boo' squad come out, and interpret it as moral victory's in the arguement to be 'right'. 'Right' that long term full time traders realise, is what sits in your trading account not arguments 'won'. Keyboard warriors who 'lose', never concede such, they go back to lurking or disappear completely.

I have been on the boards for 5 1/2 years and seen this behaviour before - I had similar 'emotional' antoganists at the last gold (2 yrs back) set up with a guy called 'gugaplex', needless to say we don't here much from him anymore.

He was also arguing Gold down then at $550 - 650 in a rather flippant manner.

I am well prepared to get back in when the market re-asserts, which this 'long run' break will do imv, sooner than many realise. If it didn't I wouldn't, and I would be wrong and be trying elsewhere unhindered, as I have strict criteria for entry, simple as that.

Elsewhere I have posted my new entries whilst shares and commodities take a breath.

Awaiting AUD break move in the next day or so against JPY.

Keeping very close watching remit on the energies as well as precious metals, interested to see what tomorrow brings in fact. A lot of Intraday fight backs to todays lows.

Well done for working out what's important, many just show up for a row? They don't however post P&L's or trades?

Good luck.

i have been wrong before, i am still here..

and if you think im being flipant..if you read most of my posts you would understand my argument..i cant be bothered to re hash it all, every post.

and i have posted 100s of trades on this site, just not anymore as there is little point

 

[N Rothschild]

It made sense to me - Over my trading career, I have been right and lost money, I have been wrong and inadvertently made money.

I have made money countertrend Intraday and lost money trading with the trend despite being right but for bad pyramiding and money management and impulsive trading.

You place to much emphasis on being 'right'.

You are an 'Ego Trader', if you are a trader at all. Which is why you pop out on Gold down days and otherwise Lurk.

What matters is good implementation of a pre thought Plan with Money Management rules in the long run, this will lead to profitability.

Scalpers regularly have no view, as do range traders. Execution of plan and profitable trading is some but not an exhaustive list of the ingredients required.

But you know this! because you are always right...

no im a fake trader.

 

[N Rothschild]

anyway your taking it a bit personally, you are bullish gold, i am bearish.. so if you are making money wether your right or not, you must be shorting it aswell sometimes?

 

[N Rothschild]

btw have any of you actually looked at a gold chart priced in a currency other than $? its completely range bound. in real terms gold is no more valuable than its been in the last year. if you buy gold with your pounds and it goes up 10% and thje dolalr declines 10% you have made jack all! (seeing gold tracks DXY inversely almost to the tick). if gold was really in high demand etc etc it would break this correlation and SKY rocket taking the value of gold up in all currency..but its not.

 

[The Baptist]

btw have any of you actually looked at a gold chart priced in a currency other than $? its completely range bound. in real terms gold is no more valuable than its been in the last year. if you buy gold with your pounds and it goes up 10% and thje dolalr declines 10% you have made jack all! (seeing gold tracks DXY inversely almost to the tick). if gold was really in high demand etc etc it would break this correlation and SKY rocket taking the value of gold up in all currency..but its not.

Yup I did, vs EURO and Pound and it was a break out by my rules on both. Not as pronounced but would have traded those in absence of Dollar.

But remeber the Gold is the crisis Dollar substitute so that is where best action can be expected when traders swap one for the other you get a doubling effect.

Still have the charts kicking about somewhere.

You should look at value of Gold in Purchasing Power Parity to its eighties high to appreciate the full extent it could run>

 

[The Baptist]

Do you think the AUD is ready to resume its uphill struggle with the USD?

MM - I think AUD likely to be strongish across most of the crosses and Yen to be weak across most crosses over next few days.

I believe the short term Dollar rally to AUD is probably going to end tomorrow, but it is not set up for me as required whilst the Jappa has, so thats my trade.