2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn

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EURUSD

The EURUSD has made a significant move, breaking out of the range trading box during the recent currency session. This development was anticipated as the pair had previously exited the bearish channel on the daily chart, forming a hammer candlestick pattern in the process. This pattern emerged near the 1.0493 support level in the daily timeframe, signaling a potential shift in momentum.

If the EURUSD can maintain its position above the pivot point, it could indicate a bullish trend. The next target for the EURUSD bulls is the R2 level at 1.082. This could be a key resistance level to watch for traders following the EURUSD.​

 

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Solana​

SOLUSD experienced a significant price increase in October, surging as high as $47.5 before easing to $34.5. Solana is currently trading around $42.5, with the RSI indicator hovering in the overbought area since October 20. Despite the overbought condition in SOLUSD, the pair hasn't started a correction yet. This indicates that the Solana market is currently dominated by a bullish bias and is extremely volatile.

Zooming into the Solana 4H chart provides a better insight into the SOLUSD price action. The crypto pair is trading in a bullish channel and appears more organized on the daily chart. Currently, the pair is testing the middle line of the bullish channel and is above the Kernel line of the Lorentzian Classification indicator. The Kernel line supports the bullish scenario, suggesting that the SOLUSD price is likely to rise and test the October high around $46.2.

The R2 level (36.98) supports the bullish scenario. If the pair closes below this level, the bullish scenario is invalidated, and the next bearish target is the pivot.​

 

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SEC Crypto Regulation Challenged by Senator Lummis' Stand​

Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming is standing up to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is really cracking down on crypto companies. Talking to Yahoo Finance, she made it clear she's not happy with how the SEC is handling things. She's especially against a new rule the SEC wants to make official without asking Congress first.
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SEC's Tough Actions​

Recently, the SEC has been really tough, taking legal action against big crypto companies like Coinbase and Binance. A rule from the SEC, made in March 2022, is getting a lot of attention from Senator Lummis. It says companies that look after crypto for customers have to show these in their financial reports and tell investors about the risks.

But, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said the SEC should've asked Congress before making this rule. Senator Lummis is now working hard to stop this rule from being set in stone. She believes it's just too much and could be bad for people if a crypto company goes under.
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Pushing for Clearer Rules​

Senator Lummis is not just talking; she's doing things. With Senator Kirsten Gillibrand from New York, she's pushing a big crypto law to make things clearer. They're trying to sort out small differences between the Senate and House versions, mainly about stablecoins, which are a type of crypto. She's hopeful that by early 2024, they'll pass the law. They even got a part of it into a big defense spending bill to address terrorist groups using crypto.
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Concerns Over SEC's Bulletin​

Last week, a Democrat, Representative Wiley Nickel, called out the SEC for how it's managing the new rule. He's worried it could make digital assets less safe. Others in Congress are also worried. Representative Patrick McHenry thinks the rule could scare financial companies away from crypto.

In short, there's a lot of back and forth about the SEC's role in regulating crypto, and Senator Lummis is at the center, fighting for a balance that keeps everyone's interests in mind.​

 

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Market Response to Federal Reserve Policy

Currencies around the world held steady early in the week. People were waiting to see if the U.S. dollar would keep falling. This comes after the Federal Reserve seemed less strict than before. The dollar measure fell a little to 104.99. The euro was up a bit at $1.0738. Last week, the dollar fell over 1%, its biggest drop since mid-July, hitting a six-week low. Stocks around the world did well too, having their best week in a year. This is because people think the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates anymore.


Other Economic Signs

Weak job numbers in the U.S., not-so-strong manufacturing globally, and lower interest rates for long-term U.S. government bonds also made the dollar weaker. At the same time, the British pound, the Australian dollar, and the Japanese yen got stronger. A market analyst named Tina Teng mentioned that usually, when there’s bad news, it ends up being good for the markets. She thinks this could mean the Federal Reserve and other central banks might stop raising interest rates sooner.

Teng believes the dollar could stay weak throughout November.


A Cautious Note from Analysts

But, some analysts, like those at J.P.Morgan, say people should not get too excited about the dollar getting weaker. They think the reasons why the dollar was strong are less now, but they haven’t gone away completely. They might come back and make the dollar strong again. They also say that for the dollar to keep getting weaker, other places like Europe and China need to show they are doing better, which is not quite certain yet.


Interest Rates and Predictions

Interest rates the government pays for borrowing money fell last week. This was after the job and manufacturing data weren’t great, and the head of the Federal Reserve talked about ‘balanced’ risks. The interest rates for 2-year notes have gone down a lot in two weeks, while 10-year rates are near a five-week low. Betting markets now really think the Federal Reserve is done with raising rates. They also think the Federal Reserve might start to lower rates as soon as June.


Global Central Bank Movements

People think that the European Central Bank will lower rates by April, and the Bank of England will do so by August. The Japanese yen went down a little to 149.48 per dollar. Tina Teng thinks that with the dollar’s direction changing and the yen getting stronger from last week, Japan might not need to step in to help its currency.

The British pound is stable at $1.2373. There is important information about Britain’s economy coming this week. Even though the pound went up last week, it’s still lost about 6% in four months.


Gold and Cryptocurrency

The weaker dollar and interest rates have helped gold prices stay high, close to a five-month high. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin stayed at $34,847. The end of the Federal Reserve raising rates has helped it. People are also watching to see if new types of Bitcoin funds for investors will come out. No new funds have been approved yet, but several companies have asked to start them.​

 

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Asian Currencies Climb as US Dollar Falls​

Asian currencies are doing better, with the US dollar reaching a low not seen in six weeks. This is because recent reports show that America's job growth is slow, and the US Federal Reserve might stop increasing interest rates.
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Important Economic Updates Ahead​

Everyone is now looking at new economic information coming from China and what the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide. These will tell us more about how economies in Asia are doing.
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Good Vibes in the Market​

People are feeling good about investing after finding out that the US added fewer jobs than expected last month. This slowdown in job growth could mean the US Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates again.

Investors are starting to put their money into Asian markets, which are usually seen as riskier. The Korean won and the Thai baht went up a little. The biggest winner was the Malaysian ringgit, which went up the most among the Southeast Asian currencies.
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Japanese Yen's Standing​

The Japanese yen went down a bit, staying below 150 against the dollar. This is even though Japan's service sector did better than people thought it would in October.

Still, the yen might not do well because the Bank of Japan wants to keep its policies very loose, and the bank's boss said they're not changing this approach anytime soon.
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Dollar Weakness and What the Fed Might Do Next​

After dropping to a low last seen in late September, the dollar got a bit better in Asia. Investors don't think the US Federal Reserve will raise rates anymore this year.

The pause in rate hikes is good for Asian currencies, but the Fed is expected to keep rates up for a while, which could slow down the growth of these currencies.
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Yuan and Aussie Dollar Get Stronger​

The Chinese yuan got a bit better, helped by the dollar's weakness and China's central bank setting a good rate for it.

People are waiting for China's trade and inflation numbers, which will give us a clearer picture of how China's economy is doing.

The Australian dollar is also strong, with everyone thinking the Australian central bank will raise rates because of higher prices and strong sales in stores. The bank has stopped raising rates since May, but they might increase them again if prices keep going up.​

 

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EURHKD Forecast

The EURHKD currency has broken out of the bearish channel. The pair is currently testing the 38.2% level of Fibonacci retracement, while the RSI indicator is approaching the overbought area and signaling divergence. This suggests that there might be a correction, or the continuation of the bearish trend is likely. Therefore, we should be cautious about going long on the currency pair.

Zooming into the EURHKD 4H chart provides a better insight into the price action. The trend is bullish in the 4H chart, and the price has broken out of the bullish channel and is trading in the overbought area. The RSI indicator is also in the overbought area. Please note that the pair has room to rise and test R1 (8.46). The Kernel line and the 8.3 pivot support the bullish scenario. If these levels are breached, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.

 

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GBPAUD​

The GBPAUD currency pair bounced from S1 (1.895 support) and is currently testing the upper line of the bullish channel. The market is bullish with the RSI indicator flipping above the 50 line. However, will the GBPAUD bulls be able to break out of the bearish channel?

Let's zoom into the 4-hour chart to gain a better insight into the currency pair. The GBPAUD situation on the 4H chart is almost the same as on the daily chart, with one difference. The RSI indicator is showing divergence, which means the market might go into a correction or trend reversal.

With the price holding below R1 (1.919 resistance), it is likely that the downtrend will continue, targeting the 1.905 pivot followed by 1.889 (S1).

On the flip side, if the bulls break out of the bearish channel and manage to close above R1 and hold steady, the road to R2 will be paved.​

 

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EURUSD Forex Trading Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators

The EURUSD forex pair is currently undergoing a critical test at the 1.07 pivot point. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) inching closer to the mid-point of 50, traders are keeping a close eye on the market dynamics.

Should the bears manage to push the price below this level on the 4-hour chart, the next target on the downside is expected to be 1.058. This potential move could signal a shift in market sentiment and a possible strengthening of the USD against the Euro.

However, as long as the EURUSD pair maintains its position above the pivot, the market trend remains bullish. This suggests that the Euro is still holding its ground against the USD.

Stay tuned for more updates on EURUSD technical analysis and forex trading strategies.​

 

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Record Highs in US Household Debt​

In the third quarter of 2023, the total household debt in the US saw a 1.3% increase, reaching a new peak of $17.29 trillion.

The rise in debt was seen across various sectors. Mortgage balances climbed to $12.14 trillion, while credit card balances reached $1.08 trillion. Student loan balances and auto loan balances both increased to $1.6 trillion, with the latter maintaining an upward trend that began in 2011. Other balances, encompassing retail credit cards and other consumer loans, remained relatively unchanged at $0.53 trillion.

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Delinquency Rates on the Rise​

There was also an increase in aggregate delinquency rates, with 3% of the total outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition rates into delinquency rose for most types of debt, with the exception of student loans and home equity lines of credit.

Donghoon Lee, an Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed, noted a significant increase in credit card balances in the third quarter. This aligns with robust consumer spending and real GDP growth.​

 

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, is currently trading within a narrow bullish channel as per the 4-hour chart. Today's trading session saw the formation of a long wick candlestick pattern, indicating a potential decline to the lower boundary of the bullish channel.

The market sentiment is predominantly bullish, a scenario that finds support at the S1 level. However, should this level be breached, the next target for the bears would be the S2 level.​

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis​

The EURUSD has rebounded from the 1.06 pivot point, as anticipated. As long as the pair trades above this pivot, it's plausible for the EURUSD bulls to target the 1.081 resistance level.

However, if the pivot is broken and the bears close below it in the 4H chart, the bullish outlook will be invalidated, shifting the bearish target to S1.​

 

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Comprehensive Analysis of the EURJPY Currency Pair

The EURJPY currency pair is currently at a crucial juncture. It's testing the upper line of the bullish channel on the 4-hour chart.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, is currently in the overbought area. This suggests that the currency pair may be overvalued, and a price correction could be imminent. In the near term, we anticipate that the EURJPY price might fall to test the middle line of the bullish channel. This is a common pattern observed when a currency pair is overbought, and it often precedes a short-term price decrease.

Following this, the next level to watch is the 159.65 pivot point. Pivot points are technical analysis indicators used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low, and closing prices from the previous trading day.

On the 4-hour chart, the 159.652 level represents a critical support level. If the price reaches this level, we could see a bounce back to higher levels. However, if the price breaks below this level, it could indicate a continuation of the downward trend.​

 

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GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair experienced a decline after reaching the significant 1.24 mark. Currently, the pair is delicately poised below the pivot point, testing the resilience of the bullish channel’s median line.

In the short-term, if the GBPUSD price manages to maintain above the crucial 1.225 support level, we could witness a bullish trend. This scenario presents an optimistic outlook for traders who are bullish on the GBPUSD.

However, a break below the 1.225 level could signal a potential downturn, extending the decline to the 1.21 mark, which represents the lower boundary of the bullish channel. This development would be significant for those keeping a close eye on this currency pair.​

 

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GBPJPY Forex Analysis: Bullish Trend and Key Resistance Levels

The GBPJPY currency pair is currently trading above the trend line and the significant resistance level of 184.5. The market trend is bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is consistently above the 50 level. Given the current trend, we anticipate the pair to break the R1 resistance level and aim for R2 as its next target.

The pivot point is providing substantial support to the bullish scenario. However, if this level is breached and the GBPJPY price stabilizes below it, the bullish scenario may no longer hold.​

 

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Yen's Fall: Impact of Divergent Monetary Policies​

The Japanese yen has once again fallen below 151 per dollar, potentially heading towards its lowest value since 1990. This is largely due to the contrasting stances of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on monetary policy. Earlier this week, Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Fed, suggested that additional interest rate increases might be necessary to control inflation.
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Diverging Monetary Policies​

On the other hand, Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the BOJ, has advised caution given the current uncertainties. He recognized that the divergence in policies has contributed to the yen's depreciation but did not explicitly express support for the currency. Earlier this month, the BOJ held its policy rate steady at -0.1% and kept the 10-year JGB yield target at approximately 0%. It also made minor modifications to its yield curve control policy, loosely defining 1% as an "upper bound" rather than a strict limit, and removed a commitment to uphold this level by offering to purchase an unlimited quantity of bonds.

In terms of the economy, a weaker yen can be both beneficial and detrimental. On one hand, it can boost exports by making Japanese goods cheaper for foreign buyers, which can stimulate economic growth. On the other hand, it can increase the cost of imports and potentially lead to inflation. Therefore, whether it's good or bad for the economy depends on a variety of factors, including the balance of trade, the rate of inflation, and the overall health of the global economy.​

 

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USDCHF

The USDCHF currency pair is currently navigating a 4-hour bearish channel. It’s hovering above a key bullish trend line, marked in red. As long as the pair remains above this trendline, the target could potentially reach the R1 resistance level at 0.908.

However, if the USDCHF closes below this bullish trend line, it could signal a continuation of the downward momentum that began on November 1st. This could extend to the S1 level, followed by the S2 level.

It’s important to note that the bullish scenario appears weaker than the bearish scenario. The likelihood of the USDCHF bears closing below the Ichimoku cloud is high, which could pave the way for lower levels.

Remember, this analysis is based on current market conditions and could change with fluctuations in the market. Always trade responsibly.​

 

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EURUSD Market Outlook: Bullish Trend Amid Bearish Flags

The EURUSD currency pair is currently navigating within a bearish flag pattern, yet it remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a potential bullish market. As the pair tests the resistance at 1.06988, the market anticipates a possible upward trend.

EURUSD bulls face the challenge of the bearish flag, which stands as an obstacle to driving the price towards the next resistance level at 1.07353. However, as long as the EURUSD continues to trade within the confines of the bearish flag, the primary target remains at testing Support 1 (S1).

Conversely, should the bulls manage to break out of the bearish channel, it could pave the way towards Resistance 3 (R3). This scenario would indicate a significant shift in market dynamics, potentially triggering a new wave of bullish momentum for the EURUSD pair.​

 

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A Closer Look at the Positive Turnaround for Spanish Stocks

The Spanish stock market has recently experienced a significant upswing, with the IBEX 35 index climbing to 9,440. This rise brings the index near its two-month peak, outpacing the majority of its European counterparts. The banking sector appears to be the driving force behind this surge, as it has seen substantial gains.


The Banking Sector Spearheads the Rally

Among the banks, Banco Sabadell emerged as the top performer with a 3% increase, followed closely by Bankinter with a 2.6% rise. CaixaBank and BBVA also contributed to the rally with gains of 1.9% and 1.4% respectively. This upward trend in the banking sector has played a pivotal role in the overall performance of the Spanish stock market.


Other Sectors Join the Upward Trend

The telecommunications and real estate sectors have also seen considerable advances, following the lead of the banking sector. However, not all sectors shared in the prosperity. Acciona and Acciona Energia, for instance, experienced a slight downturn, with their stocks falling by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively.


A Broader Perspective

On a larger scale, investors seem to have brushed aside the recent downgrade of the US debt outlook to negative by Moody’s. Instead, the focus has shifted to key inflation releases due this week. The impact of these releases on the global and Spanish economy will be something to watch closely.

In conclusion, the rebound of the Spanish stocks, led by the banking sector, paints a positive picture for the country’s economy. However, it’s important to keep an eye on the broader economic landscape, including inflation rates and international credit ratings, to fully understand the potential implications for the economy.

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EURJPY

The EURJPY currency pair has recently experienced a bounce from the upper line of the bullish flag, as observed in the 4-hour chart. This significant movement has caused the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to flip below the overbought zone. Despite the bullish trend, there's a possibility that the pair might correct the recent gains to the 160.7 support level, also known as S1.

 

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Analyzing Cardano's Market Trends

Cardano's market value has recently seen a significant decline, falling from the resistance level of 0.653. At present, the ADAUSD pair is hovering around the pivot point of 0.6351. Interestingly, a hammer candlestick pattern has appeared on the daily chart right at this pivot, suggesting a possible end to the current downward trend.

A Deeper Dive into the Numbers

For a more detailed analysis, we look at the 4-hour chart. Here, it's evident that the ADAUSD pair has broken through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Given that the pair is currently in a bearish flag pattern, it seems likely that the next downward target could be the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

A Potential Turnaround?

However, the market is unpredictable and there's a twist in the tale. If the bulls manage to escape from this bearish flag and push the price above the 50% Fibonacci mark, we could see Cardano start to climb again. The initial targets for this potential rise? A jump to 0.646, with the ultimate goal being the November high of 0.652.

Stay connected for more updates on the ever-changing journey of ADAUSD.​