2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn

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Chart of the Day - Wheat​

In terms of market-moving news, this past weekend has been very calm with neither politicians, nor central bankers delivering any significant comments. However, recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine war are pushing wheat as well as crude prices higher at the beginning of this week.

Russia has intensified shelling of Ukrainian ports after withdrawing from the Black Sea grain export agreement. Also, attacks of Ukrainian maritime drones on Russian Navy vessels have become more frequent recently. It was reported that apart from Russian Navy warships, a Russian oil tanker was also targeted this past weekend. This has led to a small jump in oil prices at the beginning of new week's trade as investors fear that it may limit Russia's ability to export its crude via Black Sea. However, it also means that return to the Black Sea grain export deal may be harder as hostilities at sea are picking up. As a result, we are observing an over-3% jump in wheat prices today.

Taking a look at WHEAT at D1 interval, we can see that the commodity has recently made another failed attempt at breaking above the 765 cents per bushel resistance zone. Price pulled back later on and declines were once again halted at the 625 cents per bushel support zone. Price is trying to bounce off this area today. A near-term resistance zone to watch can be found ranging around 665 cents per bushel, marked with previous price reactions as well as 50-session moving average (green line). However, if bulls fail to maintain control over the market and the price breaks below the aforementioned 625 support, a deeper drop may be looming. This is because the zone marks the neckline of a double top pattern. A break below the neckline would confirm the pattern and may trigger a drop with a textbook target range of 475 cents per bushel.​

 

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Important Technical Setup on Gold​

Gold is once again trading near its lowest levels in a month, but bulls are seeking hope in the recent rebound that occurred on Friday and was preceded by a small doji candlestick. Gold recovered from initial declines on Friday and gained significantly by the end of the day as US jobs data came in mixed and EURUSD rebounded.

Friday's candlestick could potentially mark a local low and also the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Today, we are witnessing a pullback in gold, which puts the fate of the right shoulder at stake.

As seen in recent months, there is a significant correlation between gold and EURUSD. Having said that, rebound in EURUSD could be the best scenario for gold bulls. In theory, it may happen this Thursday when US CPI data for July is released at 1:30 pm BST. Market expects headline US CPI inflation to accelerate from 3.0 to 3.3% YoY, with a monthly increase of 0.2% MoM.

Neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on GOLD can be found in the $1,980 area. Should we see price rise and break above this hurdle, it could pave the way for a larger upward move with a textbook range of the breakout from the pattern being $2,066 per ounce.​

 

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Chart of the Day - USDJPY​

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) clarified that its recent yield curve adjustment, announced on July 28th, was intended to sustain the current loose monetary policy rather than indicate policy normalization. The BoJ allowed the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield to trade above 0.5% in a flexible manner, deviating from a strict cap approach. Despite global anticipation of policy normalization due to rising wages and inflation, the BoJ remains cautious, questioning whether inflation's rise is demand-driven and durable enough to exceed 2%, indicating that a shift in policy direction is not imminent.

USDJPY currency pair rises as the US dollar is recovering from losses experienced toward the end of the previous week. The positive momentum in the 10-year US treasury yield is playing a role in bolstering the dollar's performance, despite a retracement on Friday that didn't fully negate the broader upward trend. Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is anticipated to be higher than the last month figures and expected to reach 3.3% Y/Y and core inflation to be the same as previous month at 4.8% Y/Y.

USDJPY currency pair is currently trading at 143.1, indicating a 0.43% increase for the day. The price recently found support at the level of 137.8 and has been steadily advancing since then. The next key target level is the previous local high at 145, which is anticipated to act as a significant resistance level. However, if the price fails to breach this level, a potential downward move to the levels of 143 or 140.4 could be anticipated.​

 

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DE30 - Chart of the Day​

Global markets have calmed after yesterday's turmoil that was triggered by a combination of a few factors - Moody's rating agency downgrading a number of US banks, Italy approving a windfall tax on 2023 bank profits and China releasing disappointing trade data for July. Major European stock markets indices launched today's trading with around 1% gains and an empty economic calendar suggests that things may remain calm until US CPI release tomorrow at 1:30 pm BST.

German DAX is trading 1% higher on the day. Taking a look at DAX futures (DE30) at D1 interval, we can see that the index is attempting to break back above the psychological 16,000 pts mark. Bulls managed to halt declines and defend the upward trendline in the 15,900 pts area. It should be noted that DE30 has been largely stuck in the sideways move in the 15,900-16,300 pts range over the past 3-4 months, spare for few false breakouts. A positive price reaction to the lower limit of the range suggests that a move towards the 16,300 pts may be next. However, a stronger catalyst may be needed to push the index above the trading range.​

 

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US500​

Today could be significant both for the shaping of the FED's future monetary policy and the direction of the main Wall Street indices, US100 and US500. The July reading will likely be the first in exactly a year when inflation was higher year-on-year compared to the previous month. According to the consensus, CPI inflation is expected to be 3.3% Y/Y, while in June it was 3.0% Y/Y. So far, the main indices have responded positively to lower readings, resulting in increases in US500 and US100 and a weakening dollar. However, today, a re

On US500 and US100, we observe an interesting situation. Both instruments are trading close to the lower limit of the upward channel, which has been respected since the beginning of March 2023. Therefore, if today's data falls below expectations, it may cause a rebound in the indices and euphoria in stocks driven by lowering inflation. Otherwise, the market may react with declines and break through the key support line.

On US500 and US100, we observe an interesting situation. Both instruments are trading close to the lower limit of the upward channel, which has been respected since the beginning of March 2023. Therefore, if today's data falls below expectations, it may cause a rebound in the indices and euphoria in stocks driven by lowering inflation. Otherwise, the market may react with declines and break through the key support line.​

 

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Wheat - Chart of the Day​

WHEAT quotations are gaining during today's session due to an attack by the Russian side on one of the Danube River ports. The head of the military administration of the Odessa region, Oleh Kiper, notified that warehouses and silos were significantly "affected," which is another escalation of the war in the Black Sea zone and another boost to volatility on wheat quotes. At this point, the exact scale of the damage is unknown.

Wheat is still trading with a YTD loss of more than 20% due to abundant harvests in some parts of the northern hemisphere. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised its estimate of Russian supplies for the 2023-24 season (domestic cargo estimates were raised to 48 million metric tons for the 2023-24 season. To put this in perspective, this means that nearly a quarter of the world's wheat trade will now come from Russia) and increased its forecast for U.S. wheat stocks by more than analysts had expected.

WHEAT quotations are starting today's session with an upward gap, nevertheless it is worth noting that this is mainly the result of a futures contract rollover. On the spot market, the grain's quotations are gaining 1.16% today.​

 

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Bitcoin - Chart of the Day​

Despite positive news in the cryptocurrency market, such as PayPal launching its own stablecoin and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in Europe, cryptocurrencies remain under selling pressure. Delays in Bitcoin ETF applications by US funds, including BlackRock, have significantly contributed to the declines. Additional catalysts include issues with the decentralized exchange Curve and weaker macroeconomic sentiment in recent days.

In light of these events, yesterday Bitcoin once again broke below the $29,000 level and is currently trading around $28,600. The nearest support level is $28,300, which was tested overnight. After that, the Bitcoin price reacted strongly, rebounding by $400. If this year's upward trend is broken (blue line), we could expect the Bitcoin price to drop to $27,500 or even $26,200. On the other hand, with a positive catalyst, the Bitcoin price could swiftly return above $29,000, and even reach $29,700. Nevertheless, given the absence of positive news, further downward pressure can be expected in the coming weeks.​

 

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Sharp Sell-off for Bitcoin​

Bitcoin powerfully declines after WSJ rumors that SpaceX sold off entire, $373 mln Bitcoin holding

The sentiment of the cryptocurrency market has been quite weak for quite some time, and volatility remained at its lowest levels in 7 years. As expected, the period of consolidation and uncertainty ended with a spike in volatility. Bitcoin's price dived to the vicinity of $25,000 on a wave of some negative news.
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• Yesterday's strengthening of the dollar weakened Bitcoin, which began to lose rapidly during the Wall Street session, on a wave of general risk aversion;​
• A report by The Wall Street Journal indicated that Elon Musk's SpaceX had liquidated a BTC holding worth $373 million, was met with a panic crypto market reaction, although Bitcoin had already been losing and was trading around $27,500 at the time of the news;​
• At the same time, on-chain analysts point out that there is currently no evidence of a Bitcoin sale by SpaceX, and the WSJ report in fact spoke of a 'wrote-down' of the value of BTC held by Musk's company in 2022;​
• At the same time, the SEC has received court approval to appeal the case against Ripple Labs, leading to a dynamic near-20% discount of the Ripple crypto in just a few hours​
• Liquidations of long crypto bulls positions have already amounted to more than $1 billion, according to onchain data, the largest wave of bull liquidations since June 2022, when Bitcoin's price fell to $17,000.​

Looking at BITCOIN chart, the price took a dive after the price fell below the EMA 100 average (blue line on the chart). Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the discount stopped at the level of a key support level, resulting from previous lows and the lower limit of the 1:1 system. If the level of USD 25250 is maintained, a return to growth is not excluded. On the other hand, if the price breaks below $24750 today, the downward movement may gain strength.​

 

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AUDUSD - Chart of the day​

The Australian dollar is one of the worst performing G10 currencies today. AUD is underperforming following the rate decision of the People's Bank of China. PBoC announced a 10 basis point cut to 1-year lending rate, to 3.45%, and decided to keep the 5-year rate unchanged at 4.20%. This was a disappointment as economists hoped that PBoC would decide on 15 basis point cuts to both 1- and 5-year rates. These expectations were propped up further over the weekend by reports saying that officials from People's Bank of China and Chinese financial market regulator met with Chinese bank executives and asked them to boost credit action in order to support economic recovery.

Decision made Chinese equities clear underperformers during today's Asia-Pacific trading session. However, it has also had a negative impact on Antipodean currencies with AUD and NZD being clear laggards among G10 currencies during the Asian session. This should not come as a surprise, especially in case of AUD, as China is a key trading partner for Antipodean countries.

Taking a look at AUDUSD chart at F1 interval, we can see that the pair has recently broken below the lower limit of the trading range, marked with 61.8% retracement of the upward impulse launched in October 2022. AUDUSD continued to move lower until the decline was halted at the 0.6400 support zone. While sellers fail to break below this hurdle, buyers also struggle to regain control and the pair continues to trade in the 0.6400 area. However, should we finally see a break below this zone, a downward move may deepen towards the textbook range of the breakout from the aforementioned trading range, which is around 0.6250.​

 

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Economic Calendar: Second-tier US Data, Speaches from Fed members​

• European indices set for higher opening.​
• Second-tier data from the United States​
• Possible decision on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF​

Index futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today. This comes after solid performance of tech shares fuelled gains on S&P 500 and Nasdaq during the Wall Street session yesterday and later on regional indices during the Asia-Pacific session as well. These gains come in spite of a renewed sell-off on US Treasuries market, which led 10-year yields to 16-year highs above 4.30%.

Economic calendar for the day ahead is light. Traders will be offered second-tier data from Poland and the United States. Some USD volatility may be present around 3:00 pm BST when existing home sales data for July and Richmond Fed index for August will be released. USD volatility may also be present during speeches from Fed members Barkin, Goolsebee & Bowman. Oil traders will focus on API report on inventories, which is expected to show a big draw but smaller than last week.

Also, SEC decision on Grayscale's application to convert its Bitcoin Trust into Bitcoin Exchange-Trade Fund (ETF) is expected today, somewhere around 4:00 pm BST. However, it should be said that the timing is tentative and that the SEC has already delayed the decision twice so it may not even be announced today. Nevertheless, positive ruling could give cryptocurrencies a boost so it is worth watching.​

• 9:00 am BST - Poland, retail sales for July. Expected: 2.5% YoY. Previous: 2.1% YoY​
• 3:00 pm BST - US, existing home sales for July. Expected: 4.15 million. Previous: 4.16 million​
• 3:00 pm BST - US, Richmond Fed index for August. Expected: -8. Previous: -9​
• 9:40 pm BST - API report on US oil inventories. Expected: -2.9 mb. Previous: -6.19 mb​

Central bankers' speeches​

• 12:30 pm BST - Fed Barkin​
• 7:30 pm BST - Fed Goolsebee​
• 8:30 am BST - Fed Goolsebee & Bowman​

 

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US100 - Chart of the Day​

Nasdaq-100 futures (US100) are attempting to climb above the 15,000 pts mark this morning. The index has been enjoying strong gains since Friday evening and the move higher accelerated yesterday. Sentiment towards the tech sector seems to be improving as Nvidia earnings releases approaches (Wednesday after session close). Results from Nvidia are expected to be a test for the AI-related bull market in tech shares. Investors seem to be optimistic with Nvidia shares rallying over 8% yesterday. Previous earnings release from the company triggered an around 25% jump in share price and launched a strong upward impulse on the broad market.

Taking a look at US100 chart at H4 interval, we can see that the index was pulling back during the first half of August, but declines were halted at the 14,625-pts support zone last week. The ongoing rebound push the index into an area, where the downward trendline as well as the upper limit of the Overbalance structure can be found. A break above the 15,045-pts zone could hint that the correction is over, and the index will resume gains. In such a scenario, the 15,400-pts zone is the next resistance to watch.​

 

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Silver Gains 1.7%​

Silver traders' position for a pause in rate hike cycle

Silver is trading around 1.7% higher today and almost 5% higher week-to-date. In spite of Chinese economy struggling, we have been observing gains not only on the precious metals markets recently but also on industrial metals markets. The latest rate cut from People's Bank of China was somewhat surprising with many being disappointed by a minor scale of the cut to 1-year lending rate and leaving the 5-year rate unchanged.

There has been a lot of speculation over a possible end of the rate hike cycle not only in the United States but also in euro area. While bond yields remain elevated, we can observe a small pullback in market rates today. Meanwhile, silver enjoyed a strong upward move that led to a break above the 50% retracement of the latest downward impulse. Silver bounced off the 22.20 area - a local low from June - and is now trading almost at $24 per ounce - above 50- and 200-session moving average. It should be noted that silver has been one of the best performing commodities over the 12-months but at the same time trades slightly lower year-to-date.​

 

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US100 - Morning Wrap​

• US indices ended yesterday's session with solid gains. The Nasdaq 100 Index gained 1.60%, while the S&P 500 was up 1.10%. The Dow Jones was the day's worst performer, rising only 0.54%.​
• Asian equities and US futures rallied, driven by rising US tech shares and signs that the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign is coming to an end. Stocks in Japan, Australia, and South Korea climbed, with Hong Kong's tech-led surge marking its best performance in a month.​
• The upbeat mood in the Asia-Pacific markets followed the Wall Street session, with the Nikkei rising by 0.92%, the Kospi by 1.12%, the Nifty 50 by 0.39%, and the S&P/ASX 200 by 0.21%.​
• Chinese indices performed exceptionally well after a prolonged period of being strongly oversold. The Hang Seng gained 2.30%.​
• Regarding a potential Australia-EU trade deal, Trade Minister Dan Tehan shared optimism about forthcoming discussions with the EU trade commissioner, emphasizing enhanced access to essential minerals for Europe as one of the strongest positives.​
• The CEO of National Australia Bank, one of Australia's 'big four', believes the country won't face a recession, highlighting the resilience of the housing market despite interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia.​
• Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares rose over 6.50% in pre-market trading after surpassing analyst earnings estimates and offering a positive future outlook.​
• Nvidia reported revenues of $13.51 billion versus a $11.04 billion forecast, a 101% year-on-year growth. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.7, compared to a forecast of $2.07 and $0.51 in Q2 2022. Data center revenues reached $10.32 billion against a $7.99 billion forecast, marking a 171% year-on-year surge.​
• The Japanese Yen underperformed today, with USDJPY rising to 145.1. Conversely, after a period of lagging, the EUR emerged as the top performer, with EURUSD advancing 0.12% to 1.0815.​

After strong increases yesterday, the US100 has once again broken above the support line of the upward trend that was recently breached. Good results from Nvidia will likely support the index today, and further increases may continue.​

 

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US 100 - Chart of the Day​

Just two days ago, we wrote that the main tech companies index, Nasdaq 100, was striving to break the 15,000-point level. After a strong nearly 8.0% correction that began at the end of July, the index rebounded with significant gains last Friday. At the beginning of this week, the mood in the tech sector started to improve, and in yesterday's session, the index gained a staggering 1.60%, returning again above the support line of the upward trend. After the close, Nvidia's results were published, further solidifying the optimistic sentiment for the Nasdaq 100. Despite the return to euphoric growth, investors should remain focused. The Jackson Hole symposium begins today, where market leaders and bankers are expected to signal the end of the interest rate hike cycle. Reality might again prove different. Recent comments from Federal Reserve members and the Fed's stance suggest that the Fed might not give in so easily, especially since the job market remains strong, and the latest inflation readings were higher than the previous ones, 3.2% year-on-year versus 3.0% year-on-year.

Nasdaq 100 (US100), after four days of gains, continues to rise today, gaining 0.40% before the Wall Street opening. The index has returned above the support line of the rising trend marked on the chart with a navy line. Currently, the bulls are battling resistance at the 15,400-point level. If the momentum isn't halted, it's conceivable the index might aim to retest the peaks at 15,900-16,000 points. However, if hawkish remarks are made during Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow, the market might once again retreat below the support line currently at around 15,100 points.​

 

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USDTRY Surges After Massive Interest Hike​

Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced its latest monetary policy decision today at 12:00 pm BST. CBRT was expected to deliver a 250 basis points rate hike, bring the 1-week repo rate to 20.00%. However, the actual hike turned out to be much bigger than expected with 1-week repo rate being hiked to 25%!

Turkish lira surged following the decision as it looks like new Turkish monetary authorities are indeed taking inflation fight seriously. Increase in underlying inflation trend was given as a reason behind such a massive hike. USDTRY and EURTRY plunged more than 2% following the decision.

USDTRY plunged after a bigger-than-expected CBRT rate hike and is attempting to break below the 50-session moving average (green line).​

 

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EURUSD​

The value of the EURUSD is at a 2.5-month low as people wait for speeches from Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, and Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The US economy is doing well and there are no signs of a recession, which makes the US Dollar stronger and the Euro weaker.
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• Earlier in the day, Joachim Nagel from the European Central Bank and Boris Vujčić from the Croatian National Bank said that they think interest rates should stay high. However, there are concerns that the economy might slow down, which could mean that interest rates will have to be lowered.​
• In the US, James Bullard and Susan Collins from the Federal Reserve said that they think interest rates should stay high. Patrick Harker from the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia said that interest rates might not go up anymore.​
• The value of US government bonds is going up, which makes the US Dollar stronger. People think that Jerome Powell will say that interest rates will stay high for a long time.​
• The US economy is doing well. There are more orders for durable goods and more jobs. This makes the US Dollar stronger.​
• The value of the US Dollar is at its highest since June 07. The value of stocks is going down. The interest rate on 10-year US government bonds is going up.​
• In Germany, there will be new information about how well the economy did in the second quarter of this year. There will also be new information about how people feel about the economy. This will affect the value of the Euro compared to the US Dollar.​

Speeches from Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell will be important to watch.

In technical analysis, if the value of the Euro compared to the US Dollar goes below 1.0765, it could decline more. If it doesn't break the 1.0765 barrier, it could return to 1.0805.​

 

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The impact of the US economic crisis on businesses and families​

The US economy is in a state of crisis. The Federal Reserve and the Administration are not taking the economic slowdown seriously. They do not understand that it will not be easy to reverse or slow down. The slowdown is gathering unstoppable speed.

The key data released yesterday shows that the economy is crumbling. Durable goods orders fell 5.2%, the biggest decline since 2020. Mortgage rates also hit a 22-year high.

This is a major turning point for the economy. The Federal Reserve and the Administration are now facing a choice: they can either take action to slow down the economy, or they can let it collapse.

If they do nothing, the economy will likely enter a recession. This would have a devastating impact on businesses and families across the country.

The Federal Reserve has a limited number of tools to slow down the economy. They can raise interest rates, which will make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money. They can also sell assets from their balance sheet, which will reduce the amount of money in the economy.

However, these measures will also slow down economic growth. The Federal Reserve will need to carefully balance the risks of a recession with the risks of inflation.

The Administration also has a role to play in preventing a recession. They can provide tax breaks and other stimulus measures to help businesses and families. They can also work to address the supply chain disruptions that are causing inflation.

The next few months will be critical for the US economy. The Federal Reserve and the Administration need to take action to prevent a recession. If they do not, the economy could collapse, with devastating consequences for businesses and families across the country.​

 

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Chart of the Day - CNH Cash​

Chinese equities were outperformers during today's Asia-Pacific session and there was a good reason behind this outperformance. A number of measures was announced over the weekend by Chinese authorities with an aim of supporting domestic equity markets. Those measures include:​

• Halving stamp tax on securities trading (from 0.10% to 0.05%).​
• Relaxing deposit requirements while trading at margin (from 100 to 80%).​
• Imposing limits on stock selling by some institutions.​

While the first two measures listed are clearly positive for stock markets and have a potential to boost liquidity as well as encourage more investors to trade, the impact of the third measure is not so simple. Of course, putting restrictions on stock selling by major shareholders will reduce downward pressure on prices but it is a short-term measure. After all, putting restrictions on how investors can manage their portfolios is not a move that inspires confidence. It looks like that after an initial euphoria, the market seems to have realized it and started to shed gains.

Taking a look at Chinese index CHN.cash chart at H4 interval, we can see that the index launched today's trading with a big bullish price gap (over 3.5%) and traded near the downward trendline at the start of today's trading. However, no breakout above the trendline occurred and gains started to be trimmed after session launch. Price dropped back below the 6,300-pts price zone and reduced daily gain to below 1%. The key question now is whether the sell-off will continue and the stock drops below the 6,150-pts zone.​

 

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Germany Consumer Sentiments - Lower GFK Reading​

A recent report shows that German consumers are feeling less confident about the economy. The GfK, a market research company, found that consumer sentiment in Germany is lower than expected and has decreased from the previous reading. This has caused a slight drop in the value of futures contracts on the DAX, a stock market index in Germany.

This decrease in consumer confidence could be a sign that the German economy is weakening. The European Central Bank (ECB) has been tightening its monetary policy, but with this new information, there may be pressure to keep interest rates unchanged at their next meeting in September.

According to the GfK, the chances of a strong economic recovery before the end of the year are decreasing. It is unlikely that private consumption in Germany will have a positive impact on the economy in 2023. This means that people may not be spending as much money, which could slow down economic growth.​

 

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Fundamental Outlook​

The US dollar has risen slightly after a strong run, but traders are waiting for more economic data before making any big bets. The Japanese yen, on the other hand, is near levels that triggered intervention last year.

The dollar index is up over 2% this month and has had six weeks of gains due to strong US economic data. This has led to expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that further rate increases may be needed to control inflation, but he also promised to move with care.

This week, there will be several important economic data releases, including personal consumption expenditure data and non-farm payrolls. Markets are currently pricing in a 78% chance that the Fed will not change interest rates next month, but the odds of a hike by November have increased.

In Europe, the euro zone CPI report will be released on Thursday and is expected to have a big impact on the market. The euro is currently flat at $1.081.

The yen has been under pressure due to the widening gap in interest rates between Japan and the US. The currency is currently at 146.69 per dollar, near its weakest level since November 9th. Traders are watching for any signs of intervention from Japanese authorities.

If US data continues to be strong, there could be more pressure on the yen. However, the threat of intervention has retreated at sub-150 levels due to a lack of comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and no signs of verbal intervention yet.​