2023 Market Forecast by Solidecn

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD Tests the Support ​

The EURUSD pair settles at 1.0515 support line, as the price keeps its consolidation above this level, accompanied by witnessing clear positive signals through stochastic, to believe that the chances valid to resume the main bullish trend, which its targets begin at 1.0625 and extend to 1.0745 after surpassing the previous level.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 1.0515 will push the price to achieve additional decline that targets 1.0425 areas initially. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0470 support and 1.0620 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Silver Price Reaches the Target​

Silver price reached few pips away from our waited target at 23.05 and begins to rebound bullishly from there, to hint heading to resume the main bullish trend and achieve gains that start at 23.75 and extend to 24.55.

Therefore, the bullish bias will be expected for today, motivated by stochastic current positivity, taking into consideration that breaking 23.05 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to achieve more bearish correction. The expected trading range for today is between 23.10 support and 24 resistance.​

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[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil Price Attempts to Recover​

Crude oil price returns to rise and surpass the minor resistance 74.20, to hint new recovery attempts and head towards potential test to 75.63 as a first positive station, making the bullish trend expected for today, being aware that it is important to monitor the price when reaching the targeted level, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve more gains on the intraday and short term basis.

On the other hand, we should note that breaking 73.50 will stop the expected rise and press on the price to resume the bearish trend that its next main target located at 70.30. The expected trading range for today is between 73.00 support and 76.50 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.1000 – 1.1196. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0485.

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the GBP/USD pair will grow to the area of 1.2900 – 1.3500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1833.

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPJPY Tends Towards the Positivity​

Despite the GBPJPY pair’s recent weak trades, its frequent positive consolidation above 158.7 increases the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, to keep waiting to react to stochastic positivity by targeting many positive stations near 161 and 162.9.

On the other hand, facing new negative pressures and crawling below 158.70 support line will force it to renew the negative trades, to expect targeting the negative stations at 158 followed by 156.6. The expected trading range for today is between 159 and 161.​

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[SOLIDECN]

BTCUSD - Growth may not last long​

Experts attribute the positive dynamics of the asset to the market reaction to the publication of December data from the US labor market, which reflected signs of a decrease in inflation pressure on the national economy: the growth of average hourly wages slowed down from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM, and from 4.8% to 4.6% YoY, reinforcing investors' hopes for a slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Traders' enthusiasm may turn out to be short-lived, as the overall national labor market still looks strong: employment rose by 223.0K, exceeding forecasts, while unemployment fell to 3.5%, confirming the threat of further inflationary growth has not been eliminated. Regulator officials note that it is too early to reverse course on the abolition of economic incentives, and interest rates need to be kept at high levels for a long time, and in the long term, the pressure of monetary factors on the digital asset market will continue.

The trading instrument continues to grow towards 17830 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and 18350 (the area of December highs). The key "bearish" level is the middle line of Bollinger bands around 16750, the breakdown of which will let the price return to 16250 (Murrey level [5/8]) and 15700 (the area of November lows).

Resistance levels: 17830, 18350 | Support levels: 16750, 16250, 15700​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Chart of the Day - Crude Oil​

Oil has launched a new week's trading on a positive note with Brent and WTI trading almost 3% higher on the day each. Chinese reopening is the main driver of the move. Starting from January 8, 2023 China no longer requires people arriving in the country to undergo a quarantine. Negative Covid test result is enough to enter China now. Moreover, Chinese authorities expect traffic during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday to double from 2022 levels and amount to over 2 billion passengers. Those news boosted hopes for a pick-up in Chinese oil demand and it is pushing crude prices higher.

Taking a look at WTI (OIL.WTI) at H4 interval, we can see that the price is attempting to make a break above the resistance zone in the $76 per barrel area, marked with 23.6% retracement and previous price reactions. Break above would pave a way for a move towards $77.50 swing level and potentially to resistance zone in the $79 area, marked with 38.2% retracement.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

PayPal - A fall is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 50 – 20. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 90.72.

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF hits the second target​

The USDCHF pair managed to achieve our second waited target at 0.9215 and attempts to confirm breaking it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the domination of the bearish trend, reminding you that our next target reaches 0.9100.

Holding below 0.9265 represents key condition to continue the expected decline, as breaching it will push the price to start recovery attempts and head towards 0.9340 followed by 0.9435 areas as main positive targets. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9140 support and 0.9265 resistance.​

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[SOLIDECN]

ETHUSD - Technical Analysis​

The ETHUSD pair continues to trade in the main sideways range of 1325 - 1090, but this week the price has reached the upper limit and is actively testing it. With a significant consolidation above, the instrument will be able to leave the framework of the long-term descending channel and continue to grow to the levels of 1437.5 (Murray level [7/8], Fibo retracement 61.8%) and 1500 (Murray level [8/8]).

The key for the "bears" is the level of 1250 (Murray level [4/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, overcoming which will allow the decline to resume to the area of 1125 (Murray level [2/8]), 1062.5 (Murray level [1/8]) and 1000 (Murray level [0/8]).

Resistance levels: 1325, 1437.5, 1500 | Support levels: 1250, 1125, 1062.5, 1000​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Chart of the Day - GBPUSD​

The British pound climbed to a 3-week high against the US dollar yesterday. The move was driven mostly by USD weakness. However, traders were also offered a speech from BoE Chief Economist Pill yesterday and it showed some changes in the economist's attitude. While Pill had stressed previously that the Bank will act forcefully to bring the inflation back to its target from a 4-decade high, he pointed to easing inflationary pressures yesterday. Pill noted that the labor market is weakening and that should economic slack emerge in-line with BoE's forecasts, the threat of inflation becoming persistent would ease. This was an important insight as it showed that BoE starts to see a turn on the labor market and weakness in the jobs market may be an important argument to reconsider any additional tightening. GBP traders will get to hear from Governor Bailey today at 10:10 am GMT. BoE Governor will moderate a panel discussion on central bank independence organized by Riksbank. GBPUSD may also move in the early afternoon as Fed Chair Powell is set to deliver a speech at 2:00 pm GMT. Powell will also speak on central bank independence.

Taking a look at GBPUSD chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair has recently bounced off an important support zone in the 1.1880 area. This area is marked with previous price reactions, 200-session moving average and a lower limit of the Overbalance structure. Defending these hurdles, especially the lower limit of the Overbalance structure, hints that pullback started in mid-December 2022 was just a brief correction. A key resistance zone to watch now is 1.2430 area, marked with the previous local high.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Gold Technical Analysis​

Gold price attempts to breach the bullish flag’s resistance mentioned this morning, accompanied by witnessing positive overlapping signal through stochastic, waiting to resume the bullish wave that targets 1900 followed by 1928.6 levels as next main stations, reminding you that the expected rise depends on the price stability above 1862.

The expected trading range for today is between 1860 support and 1895 resistance.​

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[SOLIDECN]

Gold Completes the Bullish Pattern​

Gold price managed to breach the bullish flag’s resistance and settled above it, to get positive motive that we are waiting to push the price to provide new positive trading that its targets begin at 1900 and extend to 1928.6.
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The EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active in the upcoming sessions unless breaking 1865.00 and holding below it. The expected trading range for today is between 1860 support and 1900 resistance.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Crude Oil Price Under the Negative Pressure​

Crude oil price tested 75.65 resistance line and bounced bearishly to settle at the key intraday support line that rises now to 74.30, to keep the price stuck between these levels, which keeps our neutrality valid until now, waiting to breach one of the mentioned levels to detect the next targets clearly.

Note that breaking the mentioned support will press on the price to resume the main bearish trend that its targets begin at 72.4 and extend to 70.3, while breaching the resistance will lead the price to achieve new gains that target 76.75 followed by 78.90 as next main stations. The expected trading range for today is between 72.5 support and 76 resistance.​

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[SOLIDECN]

Morning Wrap AUDUSD​

Australian dollar is the best performing G10 currency after higher CPI reading for November lowered likelihood that RBA will take a pause. AUDUSD is making another attempt at breaking above the resistance zone marked with 50% retracement of the downward move launched in April 2022.

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• US indices finished yesterday's trading higher, with small-caps and tech shares outperforming. Dow Jones gained 0.56%, S&P 500 moved 0.70% higher and Nasdaq jumped 1.01%. Russell 2000 added 1.49%​
• Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mixed today. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.9% each, Kospi added 0.3%, Nifty 50 traded flat and indices from China traded mixed​
• DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today​
• Global Times reports that Chinese companies resumed imports of Australian coal, with first batch of Australian coal expected to arrive in China in late-February​
• According to Financial Times, United Kingdom and Japan plan to sign a defense agreement to counter threat from China​
• Australian retail sales increased 1.4% MoM in November (exp. 0.7% MoM)​
• Australian CPI inflation accelerated from 6.9% to 7.3% YoY in November. Core gauge accelerated from 5.3% to 5.6% YoY​
• Oil prices traded under pressure following a large inventory increase signaled by API. API report pointed to a massive 14.86 million barrel build in US oil inventories while market expected a draw of 2.1 million barrels​
• Cryptocurrencies trade mostly lower today. Bitcoin trades flat, Ethereum drops 0.1% and Dogecoin slides 0.5%. Gala slumps over 8%​
• Precious metals trade higher today with silver adding 1.2%, gold moving 0.3% higher and platinum jumping 0.6%​
• AUD and GBP are the best performing major currencies while JPY, CAD and USD lag the most​

 

[SOLIDECN]

XRPUSD - Growth as Part of the general market trend​

The positive dynamics of quotes may be associated with the airdrop of the Flare token (FLR) planned two years ago, which since Monday has been distributed among XRP owners in a one-to-one ratio: in total, about 4.28B coins were distributed, the main volume of which will soon was sold. This token is an integral part of a startup that should ensure the interaction of the Ripple ecosystem with other blockchains.

Further prospects for the asset look uncertain, and much depends on the monetary and judicial decisions that will be made soon. In particular, on Thursday, investors expect the publication of December data on US consumer inflation: a slowdown in its growth will give the US Federal Reserve a reason to slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening. Otherwise, the cryptocurrency sector may be under new pressure. Also, XRP may lose ground if the Southern District of New York court, which is considering the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple, satisfies the regulator's latest petition and recognizes the documents of its former chairman William Hinman as confidential. In this case, the company's lawyers will lose the main argument with which they tried to prove that XRP is not a security, and the case may not be decided in their favor.

Currently, the trading instrument has left the long-term downward channel and is close to 0.3662 (Murrey level [6/8]), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]), 0.4150 (Murrey level [+2/8]) and 0.4330 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%). The key "bearish" level is 0.3296 (Murrey level [3/8], the lower line of Bollinger bands). If it is broken down, the price will be able to continue falling to 0.2930 (Murrey level [0/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3662, 0.3906, 0.4150, 0.433 | Support levels: 0.3296, 0.3052, 0.293​

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[SOLIDECN]

Shares of Pfizer, the largest US pharmaceutical company, are correcting at 47.

The daily chart shows that the price is declining, consolidating below the 50.0% Fibonacci interim retracement at 48.2.

On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the downward movement may continue if the quotes manage to break the main support — the full correction level of 61.8% Fibonacci 46.60. The already passed intermediate correction level of 50.0% at 48.20 prevents the change of the trend, but so far, such a movement looks unlikely.

Technical indicators reinforce the sell signal.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Chart of the Day - USDJPY​

Japanese yen is one of the best performing major currencies today. JPY gains thanks to reports in Japanese media that suggested Bank of Japan is planning to review side effects of its loose monetary policy at a meeting next week. Markets took it as another sign that BoJ is about to scale back its dovish approach. The first major sign was widening of a band around target yield that also led to a significant strengthening of JPY.

Taking a look at USDJPY chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in a downward move recently. The pair attempted to extend upward correction and break above the upper limit of the Overbalance structure at the end of the previous week but failed. This week's attempt to recover was halted at the 100-period exponential moving average. A break below recent lows in the 131.50 area would pave the way for a test of 129.50 area, that marks low of the whole downward impulse.

The pair will also be on watch later today when the US CPI report for December is released. Economists expect reading to show deceleration in both headline and core gauges of US consumer inflation. Headline CPI is seen dropping from 7.1 to 6.5% YoY while core CPI is seen dropping from 6.0 to 5.7% YoY. Report will be key for assessing whether the Fed will go with a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike at its next meeting.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

XAUUSD - Growth is possible.​

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow to the area of 1990 – 2050. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1759.43.
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